Why more vaccinated people are dying of covid in UK than unvaccinated?

News Network
July 16, 2021

London, July 16: More vaccinated people are dying of Covid than unvaccinated people, according to a recent report from Public Health England (PHE). The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died of the delta variant within 28 days of a positive Covid test between February 1 and June 21, had received at least one dose of the vaccine. At first glance, this may seem alarming, but it is exactly as would be expected.

Here’s a simple thought experiment: imagine everyone is now fully vaccinated with Covid vaccines – which are excellent but can’t save all lives. Some people who get infected with Covid will still die. All of these people will be fully vaccinated – 100%. That doesn’t mean vaccines aren’t effective at reducing death.

The risk of dying from Covid doubles roughly every seven years older a patient is. The 35-year difference between a 35-year-old and a 70-year-old means the risk of death between the two patients has doubled five times – equivalently it has increased by a factor of 32. An unvaccinated 70-year-old might be 32 times more likely to die of Covid than an unvaccinated 35-year-old.

This dramatic variation of the risk profile with age means that even excellent vaccines don’t reduce the risk of death for older people to below the risk for some younger demographics.

PHE data suggests that being double vaccinated reduces the risk of being hospitalised with the now-dominant delta variant by around 96%. Even conservatively assuming the vaccines are no more effective at preventing death than hospitalisation (actually they are likely to be more effective at preventing death) this means the risk of death for double vaccinated people has been cut to less than one-twentieth of the value for unvaccinated people with the same underlying risk profile.

However, the 20-fold decrease in risk afforded by the vaccine isn’t enough to offset the 32-fold increase in underlying risk of death of an 70-year-old over a 35-year-old.

Given the same risk of infection, we would still expect to see more double-vaccinated 70-year-olds die from Covid than unvaccinated 35-year-olds. There are caveats to that simple calculation. The risk of infection is not the same for all age groups. Currently, infections are highest in the youngest and lower in older age groups.

Think of it as ball-bearing rain

One way to imagine the risk is as a rain of differently sized ball bearings falling from the sky, where the ball bearings are the people that get infected with Covid. For simplicity’s sake, let’s assume there are roughly equal numbers of ball bearings in each age group. In each age category, there is also a variation in the size of the balls. The balls representing the older groups are smaller, representing a higher risk of death.

Now imagine there’s a sieve that catches many of the balls. Most people who get Covid will not die (most balls get caught in the sieve). But some of the smaller balls fall through. The older you are, the more likely you are to fall through the holes. The balls that make it through the first sieve are hugely skewed towards older age ranges, represented by the smaller ball bearings. Before Covid vaccines came along, the people that fell through the holes represented the people who would die of Covid. The risk was massively skewed towards older people.

Vaccination provides a second sieve underneath the first, to prevent people from dying. This time, because we haven’t vaccinated everyone, it’s the holes in the sieve that are of different sizes. For older people who’ve had both doses, the holes are smaller, so many ball-bearings are stopped. The vaccines will save many of those who would previously have died.

For younger people the holes in the vaccine sieve are currently bigger as they are less likely to have received both doses and so more likely to fall through the sieve.

If all the filtering were just done by the second sieve (with no skew in risk of death by age, represented by the first sieve), then we might expect younger unvaccinated people to account for a larger proportion of the deaths. But it isn’t. The first sieve is so hugely biased towards older people that even with vaccination, more of them slip through the second sieve than the younger unvaccinated people.

Given the UK’s vaccination strategy (vaccinate older, more vulnerable people first), you would expect high proportions of the people who die from Covid to have been vaccinated. And that is exactly what we see in the data.

The fact that more vaccinated people are dying than unvaccinated people does nothing to undermine vaccine safety or effectiveness. In fact, it’s exactly what we’d expect from the excellent vaccines, which have already saved tens of thousands of lives.

Comments

David Dunning White
 - 
Monday, 4 Apr 2022

What a load of absolute rubbish. These vaccines are neither safe or effective and have not even passed the stage 3 trials. They plainly don't prevent transmission or infection and the claims that they prevent hospitalisation are spurious and unproven and are a last resort at trying to assure the public that they are safe and effective. Beware of these gene therapy jabs unless you want heart problems ,fertility problems and a weakened and useless immune system.

Ramesh Mishra
 - 
Tuesday, 27 Jul 2021

COVID-19, VACCINE DOES NOT GIVE A GUARANTEED LIFE TO ANYONE ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD: People of all ages, races, religions and colours follow the health guidelines issued by the authorities. I have studied, worked and travelled the world for over 50, years, I frequently travel around the world and I have noticed that since the declaration of the pandemic, most of the world was in denial and look at Covid-19, as a joke. The people around the world, and economy is unpredictable due to economic catastrophe and massive death caused by the Covid-19. The law-abiding, disciplined and principled countries would recover fast and the lawless countries would be doomed. The fear of Covid-19 now is in the minds of people around the world and people are afraid to breathe the fresh air. It is our faith that would keep us happy, healthy and alive. Covid-19 is curable and the death incurable.
Ramesh Mishra
Victoria, BC, CANADA

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News Network
March 27,2025

nandini.jpg

The Karnataka government has announced that Nandini milk will become ₹4 costlier per litre starting April 1, 2025. This is the second price hike this year.

The decision was made during a cabinet meeting led by Chief Minister Siddaramaiah. Karnataka Cooperation Minister K N Rajanna and Animal Husbandry Minister K Venkatesh said the increase is meant to support dairy farmers by covering the rising costs of producing and processing milk.

Officials also said that:

>> The extra money from the price hike will go directly to the milk producers.

>> The earlier ₹2 price hike (announced on June 26, 2024) will be withdrawn.

>> The new price hike of ₹4 will apply to both 500 ml and 1-litre packets.

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coastaldigest.com news network
April 8,2025

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Mangaluru: Scoring an almost perfect 599 out of 600, Amoolya Kamath, a brilliant student of Expert PU College, has topped the Science stream in the PU 2 exams. Calm, composed, and quietly confident, Amoolya says the mock tests at her college were the game changer in overcoming her exam fear.

Coming from a family of doctors — Dr Dinesh Kamath and Dr Anuradha Kamath — Amoolya is charting her own path: “I want to become an engineer,” she said with determination.

Her success mantra? “I revised every day whatever was taught in class. I would reach home by 7 pm and then study till 10:30 pm. But honestly, I never expected the first rank!”

Apart from academics, Amoolya is a trained artist — having cleared the Bharatanatyam senior exam and Carnatic music junior exam. “Music kept my mind calm,” she smiled.

A graceful blend of intellect and art, Amoolya Kamath is an inspiration for students aiming to balance ambition with serenity.

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Agencies
April 6,2025

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New Delhi, Apr 6: President Droupadi Murmu on Saturday gave her assent to the Waqf (Amendment) Bill, 2025, which was passed by Parliament earlier this week.

Murmu also gave her assent to the Mussalman Wakf (Repeal) Bill, 2025.

"The following Act of Parliament received the assent of the president on April 5, 2025, and is hereby published for general information: The Waqf (Amendment) Act, 2025," the government said in a notification.

Parliament early on Friday approved the Bill after the Rajya Sabha gave its nod to the contentious legislation following an over 13-hour debate.

The discussion witnessed staunch objections from opposition parties, which termed the Bill "anti-Muslim" as well as "unconstitutional", while the government responded that the "historic reform" would benefit the minority community.

The Bill was passed in the Rajya Sabha with 128 members voting in favour and 95 opposing it.

It was passed in the Lok Sabha early on Thursday, with 288 members supporting it and 232 against it.

Parliament had also approved the Mussalman Wakf (Repeal) Bill, with the Rajya Sabha giving its nod. The Lok Sabha had already given its assent to the Bill.

After the president gave her assent, it has also become a law.

Congress MP Mohammad Jawed and All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) president Asaduddin Owaisi on Friday challenged the validity of the Waqf (Amendment) Bill in the Supreme Court, saying it violated constitutional provisions. 

Jawed's plea alleged the Bill imposed "arbitrary restrictions" on Waqf properties and their management, undermining the religious autonomy of the Muslim community.
The petition, filed through advocate Anas Tanwir, said it discriminated against the Muslim community by "imposing restrictions that are not present in the governance of other religious endowments".

Jawed, the Lok Sabha MP from Kishanganj in Bihar, was a member of the Joint Parliamentary Committee on the Bill and alleged in his plea that it "introduces restrictions on the creation of Waqfs based on the duration of one's religious practice".

In his separate plea, Owaisi said the Bill took away from Waqfs various protections accorded to Waqfs and Hindu, Jain and Sikh religious and charitable endowments alike.

Owaisi's plea, filed by advocate Lzafeer Ahmad, said, "This diminishing of the protection given to Waqfs while retaining them for religious and charitable endowments of other religions constitutes hostile discrimination against Muslims and is violative of articles 14 and 15 of the Constitution, which prohibit discrimination on the grounds of religion."

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