Crude output: US may soon knock down Saud Arabia from second to third place

Agencies
January 20, 2018

London, Jan 20: The rapid growth of US shale producers will shortly knock Saudi Arabia from second to third place among the world’s oil-producing titans, with only Russia ahead, the International Energy Agency said on Friday.

With Venezuelan output plummeting amid political and economic turmoil, the IEA indicated the Kingdom could lose its number two position in 2018.

“Very soon US crude production may overtake that of Saudi Arabia and also rival Russia’s,” it said.

The backdrop is a tightening market amid a significant fall in Venezuelan production, geopolitical uncertainty, continuing falls in inventory levels and OPEC/Russia supply cuts.

But the upshot, said the agency, is likely to be a sizeable pick-up in non-OPEC production. After adding in barrels from Brazil, Canada and other growth countries, and allowing for falls in Mexico, China and elsewhere, total non-OPEC production will increase by 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd), IEA said in its latest world oil market report.

The agency said: “This represents, after the downturn in 2016 and the steady recovery in 2017, a return to the heady days of 2013-2015 when US-led growth averaged 1.9 million bpd.

The factors contributing to investor interest in oil include the possible unraveling of the Iran nuclear deal and recent demonstrations in the country, disruption to the industry in Libya, and the closure of the Forties pipeline system.

Although these factors might have faded somewhat, there are others at work, said the IEA. “The general perception that the market has been tightening is clearly the overriding factor and, within this overall picture, there is mounting concern about Venezuela’s production.

A plunge in Venezuelan supply cut OPEC crude output to 32.23 million bpd in December, boosting compliance to 129 percent. Declines are accelerating in Venezuela, which posted the world’s biggest unplanned output fall in 2017.”

Said the IEA: “Venezuelan production is now about half the level inherited by president Chavez in 1999 - and in December output was 490,000 bpd a day lower than a year ago, having fallen to 1.61 million bpd.

The agency said it was reasonable to assume that the decline will continue, but it was impossible to say at what rate. But if output and exports sank further, it was fair to assume other producers would probably step in with the flexibility to deliver oil similar in quality to Venezuela’s shipments to the US and elsewhere, including China.

Market tightening in the final months of 2017 was evident and continued into 2018. OECD commercial stocks declined for the fourth consecutive month in November, by 17.9 million barrels, with a large fall in middle distillates, said IEA. Preliminary data for December suggested a further fall of 42.7 million barrels.

“Additionally, global crude oil markets saw an exceptionally tight fourth quarter in 2017 as the large draw in OECD crude stocks coincided with a decline in Chinese implied crude balances.”

On the demand side, estimates for 2017 and 2018 were roughly unchanged at 97.8 million bpd and 99.1 million bpd respectively.

“The slowdown in 2018 demand growth is mainly due to the impact of higher oil prices, changing patterns of oil use in China, recent weakness in OECD demand and the switch to natural gas in several non-OECD countries. Production was steady on a year ago as non-OPEC gains of nearly 1 mb/d offset declines in OPEC.”

The price of Brent crude oil closed earlier this week above $70 for the first time since Dec. 2, 2014, and money managers have placed record bets on the recent upward momentum continuing. Whether or not the recent price rise has run out of steam and “seventy really is plenty” remained to be seen, said the agency.

“However, such are the geopolitical uncertainties and the ever-dynamic prospects for US shale that we should expect a volatile year,” it added.

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News Network
November 5,2024

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Bengaluru: In a major legal twist, an FIR has been filed against Union Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy, his son Nikhil Kumaraswamy, and their close associate Suresh Babu. The trio is accused of threatening a senior IPS officer and making false allegations against him. The FIR, registered by the Sanjaynagar police, follows a complaint by Additional Director General of Police (ADGP) M. Chandrasekhar, who heads the Special Investigation Team (SIT) under the Karnataka Lokayukta.

Allegations Against Kumaraswamy
The crux of the case revolves around ADGP Chandrasekhar's investigation into Kumaraswamy's alleged illegal approval of a mining lease to Sri Sai Venkateshwara Minerals (SSVM). Kumaraswamy, currently serving as Union Minister for Steel and Heavy Industries, has been accused of bypassing legal procedures in favor of SSVM, prompting Chandrasekhar to seek the Karnataka Governor's approval to pursue legal action.

In response, Chandrasekhar claims that Kumaraswamy lashed out publicly. On September 28 and 29, the former Karnataka Chief Minister held press conferences, accusing the officer of bribery, misuse of medical records, and personal misconduct. According to the ADGP, Kumaraswamy also issued a threat of transferring him to another cadre outside Karnataka.

Nikhil and Aide Suresh Babu Involved
Kumaraswamy’s son Nikhil Kumaraswamy is also implicated in the controversy. On September 29, Nikhil allegedly echoed his father’s accusations against Chandrasekhar. The third individual named in the FIR, Suresh Babu, a close aide to Kumaraswamy, is accused of escalating the issue by writing a letter to the Karnataka Chief Secretary. This letter, containing further allegations, was made public on social media, adding to the pressure on the senior officer.

Legal Action and Charges
Though Chandrasekhar's complaint was filed in October, formal legal proceedings began on November 4 after securing approval from the 42nd Additional Chief Metropolitan Magistrate (ACMM). The charges include Section 224 (threat of injury to a public servant) of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita (BNS). A police source familiar with the case confirmed the charges.

ADGP Chandrasekhar's Response
In a strong rebuttal, ADGP Chandrasekhar addressed his team and the media, branding Kumaraswamy as an accused person trying to intimidate the SIT. He emphasized that these attacks were intended to undermine his officers' morale and interfere with the investigation.

“An accused, no matter how powerful, remains an accused. This attempt to instill fear in the minds of officers is meant to hinder justice," Chandrasekhar said in a written statement. Referring to Kumaraswamy, he added, "This accused, who is currently out on bail, has resorted to such tactics to shake our resolve."

Quoting Shaw to Drive the Point Home
In a dramatic conclusion, Chandrasekhar cited playwright George Bernard Shaw, saying, “Never wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty, and the pig likes it,” signaling his intent to remain unshaken in the face of public accusations and personal threats.

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News Network
November 13,2024

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Beirut: The Israeli army on Tuesday continued to launch attacks against civilians in Lebanon, targeting them in several areas without prior evacuation warnings.

However, 13 airstrikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs in the space of only three hours were preceded by evacuation warnings.

The attacks caused no injuries but resulted in widespread destruction of residential buildings and commercial, medical and educational centers.

The airstrikes in southern Lebanon and Bekaa region, reaching Akkar in Lebanon’s far north, erased any hope of a near-term ceasefire settlement.

The strikes were accompanied by an announcement on Israel’s Channel 14 that “the Israeli army has expanded its operations in southern Lebanon to areas it had not reached since the beginning of the ground operation.”

About 50 days have passed since Israel intensified its hostile operations in Lebanon targeting Hezbollah. The death toll from these confrontations and attacks has passed 3,200, with more than 14,000 wounded.

For the first time, an airstrike targeted a mountainous area between Baalchmay and Aabadiyeh on the road leading to Aley, destroying a building housing displaced people.

The mayor of Baalchmay, Adham Al-Danaf, confirmed that “the airstrike targeted a residential building in the Dhour Aabadiyeh area.”

The initial toll from the Ministry of Health showed “five people killed and two injured.”

The raids that targeted Beirut’s southern suburbs for the first time in the morning, unlike nightly raids before, caused huge destruction. Those who evacuated their homes after Israeli warnings, used their phones to record the collapse of empty buildings in Sfeir, Haret Hreik, Bir Al-Abed, Mrayjeh, Laylaki and Hadath.

Israeli warplanes also targeted Tyre, where a strike on a building killed three people and injured many others, while a raid on Tefahta killed a man identified as Kifah Khalil and his family.

Attacks were widespread, with Yater and Zebqine subject to artillery shelling, a civilian being killed in Hermel, and further attacks on Bouday and an area between the towns of Srifa and Arsoun.

A raid on the town of Siddiqin killed two people and injured several others, while an attack on the Mechref farm led to one fatality and multiple injuries.

The search for those missing after an Israeli raid on the town of Ain Yaacoub in Akkar, in the northernmost part of Lebanon, continued until dawn.

During the operation, 14 bodies were retrieved, identified as those of residents displaced from the town of Arabsalim in the Iqlim Al-Tuffah area of the south, along with members of a Syrian family, a mother and three of her children. Additionally, there were 10 people in critical condition.

The targeted residence belongs to a Lebanese citizen, Hussein Hashim, who is reported to be a member of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party.

An airstrike on the town of Saksakiyeh in the Sidon region on Monday night resulted in yet another tragedy.

It appeared that the intended target was the Shoumer family, who just days before lost Hussein Amin Shoumer and his two sisters in a drone strike near Al-Awali River.

Israeli army spokesperson Avichay Adraee issued additional evacuation warnings for towns in the southern region along the Litani River, which, according to estimates from the mayors, are currently 90 percent uninhabited.

In the meantime, Hezbollah announced its continued efforts to “combat the intrusions of Israeli forces and to strike military installations and towns in the north.”

Hezbollah said in a statement that it confronted “an Israeli Hermes 450 drone in the airspace of Nabatieh and forced it to leave Lebanese airspace.”

The party also announced that it targeted “Kfar Blum settlement with a rocket salvo.”

On the Israeli side, air raid sirens sounded in areas of Upper and Western Galilee and in the town of Kiryat Shmona and its surroundings.

The Israeli army confirmed that “a drone exploded in Nesher, east of Haifa, without activating the air raid sirens,” and that “a drone launched from Lebanon crashed into a school in Gesher HaZiv, north of Nahariya.”

Israel’s Channel 13 reported the Israeli military’s assessment regarding Hezbollah’s military strength, claiming that the group currently possesses approximately 100 precision missiles, thousands of artillery shells, and hundreds of rockets. Additionally, it was highlighted that “there are around 200 Lebanese towns that remain unvisited.”

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News Network
November 5,2024

Mangaluru: Pilikula Biological Park has welcomed several exotic species, including a six-year-old Asiatic lion, a wolf, two gharial crocodiles, and four rare birds (two silver pheasants and two yellow-golden pheasants), as part of an animal exchange programme with Nandankanan Zoological Park, Odisha. The exchange was approved by the Central Zoo Authority, marking a major addition to Pilikula Zoo's growing collection.

Animal Exchange Details

Park Director H Jayaprakash Bhandary provided insights into the exchange programme. In return for the new arrivals, Pilikula Zoo will send four dholes (wild dogs), four rare reticulated pythons, two Brahminy kites, three Asian palm civets, and two large egrets to Nandankanan Zoo. Notably, all animals sent from Pilikula were born in the zoo, showcasing the zoo's success in breeding rare species.

Purpose of the Exchange

The animal exchange programme serves multiple purposes, including providing companions for solitary animals and preserving pure bloodlines. Pilikula Zoo already houses three lions, and the new male Asiatic lion was introduced as a companion. Since the number of Asiatic male lions in Indian zoos is relatively low, the zoo sourced this lion from the distant Nandankanan Zoological Park.

Care During Transport

To ensure the animals' safety and well-being during the 2,000-kilometre journey — the longest distance covered in Pilikula’s animal exchange history — two veterinary officers and eight caretakers from Nandankanan accompanied the animals. Both zoos will share equal responsibility for the care of the exchanged animals.

Future Animal Additions and Revenue Boost

Pilikula Biological Park, home to approximately 1,200 animals, birds, and reptiles, is one of India’s 18 large zoos. Discussions are ongoing for future exchanges with other prominent zoos, including Chhatbir Zoo in Punjab, Byculla Zoo in Mumbai, and the Madras Crocodile Bank. The zoo also plans to introduce rare species like the Anaconda and the Humboldt penguin, for which special enclosures will be built, thanks to donor contributions.

The addition of these rare animals and birds is expected to boost the zoo’s revenue, helping it become self-sustaining, Bhandary said.

Quarantine and Public Display

Before being introduced to the public, the new arrivals will spend around 15 days in a quarantine ward to adapt to the local environment. They will receive necessary vaccinations and treatments during this period, after which they will be displayed to visitors.

Record-breaking Exchange

This animal exchange marks a significant achievement for Pilikula Zoo, with the animals being transported over approximately 2,000 kilometres from Nandankanan Zoological Park. This sets a new record, surpassing the previous longest exchange with Udaipur Zoo in Rajasthan, which was around 1,700 kilometres.

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