Modi favourite for 2019 Lok Sabha elections: US experts

March 14, 2017

Washington, Mar 14: Prime Minister Narendra Modi has emerged as a clear favourite for the 2019 general elections after the BJP's landslide victory in assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, top US experts on India have said.

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While one of the expert noted that the electoral results of the just concluded Assembly polls in five states show that the 2014 Lok Sabha election results were not an aberration, another noted that Modi would continue to lead India after 2019.

"The Assembly elections do not signal much of a change. The Uttar Pradesh election results showed that the 2014 general elections were not an "aberration"," Adam Ziegfeld, Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at the George Washington University said.

"It was a big win for the BJP. Its candidate won with much larger margin of victory than compared to the two previous winners - BSP and Samajwadi Party," he said.

Modi has been established by this election as the "clear and favourite winner" for the 2019 elections, Sadanand Dhume, resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute said.

"Modi is the front runner (for 2019)," he said.

Irfan Nooruddin, a professor at the Walsh School of Foreign Service at the Georgetown University predicted that in 2019, the BJP is unlikely to be get a simple majority and Modi would rather be heading a coalition government.

BJP is running a disciplines election campaign state-by-state, while the Opposition fails, he said.

The party does not do good in a state where it faces a direct opposition. BJP is beatable if the Opposition comes together, Nooruddin said, adding that the party gains where it faces a fragmented opposition and in 2019, anti-incumbency would kick in.

In this election, the BJP played the cast card while pretending to be above it, Dhume who was in Uttar Pradesh during the elections, said.

"Demonetisation is extremely popular. Indian people who have suffered themselves in the wake of the policy, it won their heart and mind. Here is this man of sincerity who struck a principled blow to corrupt and the rich," he said referring to his conversation with people in the state.

Dhume, however, noted that Modi after this historic victory in Uttar Pradesh is unlikely to go for the kind of economic reforms the private sector would like to have.

India is going to bump up its economic reforms that directly effects the people of the country, said Alyssa Ayres, senior fellow for India, Pakistan and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations

Picking up four governments in states all across India, and having future prospects, it is unlikely to have an impact on foreign policy. Like demonetisation #IamNewIndia is the pledge that the Prime Minister is asking citizens to be part of his new India campaign.

BJP will now pick up a lot of seats in Rajya Sabha which would help the ruling party to carry out its long pending reform like the land acquisition reform and labor reforms. They would tart picking up seats is early as 2018. BJP is looking at 2019 and beyond.

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April 11,2024

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BJP MLA Arabail Shivaram Hebbar’s son Vivek Hebbar on Thursday, 11 April, joined the Congress party along with his supporters at Banavasi in Uttara Kannada district.

After quitting the BJP, Vivek Hebbar joined the party in the presence of state Congress vice president and former MLC Ivan D’Souza and other local party leaders.

Speculations have been rife about his father Shivaram Hebbar, an MLA from the Yellapur Assembly segment, also planning to join the Congress, ever since he did not turn up for voting during the polls to four seats of the Rajya Sabha from Karnataka held on 27 February.

The senior Hebbar’s absence from voting, despite a party whip, had caused embarrassment to the BJP. He had, however, later attributed his absence to poor health.

The BJP had also issued notice to him, which he responded to.

Shivaram Hebbar had recently met Deputy Chief Minister and state Congress chief DK Shivakumar but claimed that the meeting was about water issues in his Assembly segment.

The senior BJP leader was earlier with the Congress. He was among 17 Congress-JD(S) legislators, who had quit from their parties, which ultimately led to the collapse of the then HD Kumaraswamy-led coalition government in July 2019.

Shivaram Hebbar had subsequently won the by-poll on a BJP ticket and served as a minister in the then government of the saffron party.

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April 5,2024

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Bengaluru: A striking feature in the candidates list for the April 26 Lok Sabha elections in Karnataka is the presence of members of Janata Dal (Secular)'s first family.

Former Prime Minister and JD(S) patriarch H D Deve Gowda's son H D Kumaraswamy, son-in-law C N Manjunath and grandson Prajwal Revanna are all in the fray.

While state JD(S) chief and former Chief Minister H D Kumararaswamy is contesting from Mandya, Prajwal Revanna is seeking reelection from Hassan.

However, Manjunath, an eminent cardiologist, is contesting from Bangalore Rural on a BJP ticket, as per the arrangement between the alliance partners.

With the entry of cardiologist Manjunath into the poll arena, at least nine members of Gowda's immediate family are or have been in electoral politics.

Gowda is a Member of Rajya Sabha from Karnataka, while Kumaraswamy is an MLA from Channapatna, which comes under the Bangalore Rural Lok Sabha constituency.

Kumaraswamy's wife Anitha had represented Ramanagara as MLA in the previous assembly, and Nikhil, who is the JD(S) youth wing leader, had unsuccessfully contested the 2019 Lok Sabha polls from Mandya and 2023 assembly polls from Ramanagara.

Gowda's elder son and former Minister H D Revanna -- father of Prajwal -- is MLA from Holenarsipura, his wife Bhavani Revanna was a member of the Hassan Zilla Panchayat. Their other son, Suraj, is an MLC.

The Gowda family currently has its representation in all the four major houses of public representatives- Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha, Legislative Assembly and Legislative Council.

This will be for the second consecutive time in the Lok Sabha elections, when three members from Gowda's family are in the fray from constituencies of the old-Mysore region (south Karnataka), which is considered to be the party's stronghold, because of the dominance of the Vokkaliga community here, to which they belong to.

Gowda (Tumkur), Prajwal Revanna (Hassan), and Kumaraswamy's son Nikhil (Mandya) had contested the Lok Sabha poll in 2019, but only Revanna emerged victorious. In fact, he was among the only two candidates from the then ruling Congress-JD(S) alliance, who won; the other being D K Suresh of Congress from Bangalore Rural.

As part of the seat-sharing deal in this Lok Sabha polls in Karnataka, the BJP would contest in 25 constituencies and the JD(S) in the remaining three -- Mandya, Hassan and Kolar. JD(S) has fielded M Mallesh Babu from Kolar.

In the 2023 assembly polls, three members of the Gowda family had contested - Kumaraswamy (Channapatna), H D Revanna (Holenarasipur), and Nikhil Kumaraswamy (Ramanagara). In the 2018 assembly polls, both Kumaraswamy and Revanna had won.

Kumaraswamy, who had then won from two seats - Ramanagara and Channapatna - vacated Ramanagara, which his wife Anita Kumaraswamy subsequently won in the bypolls.

According to some political observers, the perception in some quarters about JD(S) being too family-centric is one of its major drawbacks.

James Manor, University of London professor, who has been a keen observer of Karnataka's politics, during a webinar ahead of assembly polls last year had said, family-centred politics is causing discontent and leading to desertion. 'JD(S) suffers from over-centralisation and dictatorial leadership.'

However, Kumaraswamy has time and again defended family members contesting polls stating that , '....our family members will contest where we don't have a capable candidate, to protect the interest of our party and its workers.'

However, the JD(S)'s dynastic party image has always been used by its political opponents to target it.

Karnataka Deputy Chief Minister and state Congress president D K Shivakumar, had a dig at Gowda for fielding his son, grandson, and son-in-law, and asked 'Were there no other candidates (in JD(S))?'

'None of them is going to win...JD(S) is a party that has lost strength. If it is really strong, why did they make their son-in-law contest on a BJP ticket?' he said.

Some political analysts held the view that JD(S)' inability to grow beyond the Vokkaliga dominated old-Mysore region -- other than certain select pockets of north Karnataka -- is seen as among its other key drawbacks.

Speculations are already rife in JD(S) circles that Nikhil is most likely to be the party candidate from Channaptna assembly segment, in case Kumaraswamy wins in Mandya.

Ahead of assembly polls last year, differences in the Gowda family had come out in the open with H D Revanna's wife Bhavani wanting to contest from Hassan, but Kumaraswamy had opposed it and finally gave the ticket. 

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April 12,2024

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Bengaluru, Apr 12: The two men who allegedly plotted and executed the blast that rocked Rameshwaram Cafe in Bengaluru last month have been arrested from Kanthi in Bengal's East Midnapore district, the National Investigation Agency said Friday morning. 

Mussavir Hussain Shazeb and Abdul Matheen Taha were caught after a joint operation by central intelligence agencies and police from Bengal, Karnataka, Telangana, and Kerala, and are en route to Kolkata, the anti-terror agency said in a statement.

The available evidence indicates Shazeb planted the explosive device, placed inside a backpack, at the popular eatery. Taha was responsible for planning the attack and for their disappearance.

These are the second and third arrests in this case; last month Muzammil Shareef, who extended logistical support to the Shazeb and Taha, was taken into custody.

Residents of Karnataka's Shivamogga district, Shazeb and Taha were traced to Kanthi after officials conducted searches at 18 locations across Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and even Uttar Pradesh.

The blast at Bengaluru's Rameshwaram Cafe on March 1 injured 10 people, customers and staff.

Fortunately there were no deaths; the bag containing the explosives was placed in a relatively less crowded area and against a large pillar that absorbed the brunt of the explosion.

After the blast, the NIA released photos and videos of the accused, as seen on CCTV cameras across Bengaluru. In one such clip, the accused - wearing a face mask - was seen boarding a bus.

The agency had declared a reward of ₹ 10 lakh for information leading to the arrest of each accused. The agency had also questioned their acquaintances, including college and school friends.

The Rameshwaram Cafe, which suffered extensive damage after the blast, reopened eight days later, with enhanced security measures including metal detectors.

BJP’s reaction

The Karnataka BJP on Friday attacked the Siddaramaiah government after the arrest of two men by the NIA in the Bengaluru cafe blast case, saying that the terrorists were 'brothers' of the Congress.

Taking to social media, Karnataka BJP stated, “National Investigation Agency (NIA) detains ‘Brothers’ of Congress in Rameshwaram Blast case. Ever since Jihadi Tipu Sultan’s admirers came to power in Karnataka, terrorists have got a free ride.”

“Chief Minister Siddaramaiah’s ‘Ease of Doing Terror’ Policies have prompted ISIS to now set up its shop in Karnataka. The only guarantee that CM Siddaramaiah has fulfilled is converting prosperous Karnataka into a terror hub,” the BJP stated.

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