March-quarter GDP growth at 5.3 pct, weakest in 9 years

May 31, 2012

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New Delhi, May 31: India's annual economic growth slumped in the January-March quarter to a nine-year low of 5.3 percent as the manufacturing sector contracted and a fall in the rupee to a record low suggests the economy remains under pressure in the current quarter.

The growth rate was much lower than expected and was even below the lowest forecast in a Reuters poll that had produced a median of 6.1 percent from predictions ranging between 5.5 percent and 7.3 percent.

"The data highlights the unusual degree of weakening of the country's economy, likely driven by poor investment and widening trade gap," said Dariusz Kowalczyk, an economist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.

"The data also poses a dilemma for policymakers, as they have no fiscal room to stimulate growth, while monetary easing scope is very narrow, at least for now, due to rebounding and high inflation."

The growth rate in the final quarter of India's fiscal year was the lowest since 3.6 percent in the January-March quarter of 2003, Thomson Reuters data shows.

The data showed that the manufacturing sector shrank 0.3 percent in the quarter compared with a year earlier. The farm sector grew 1.7 percent.

Gross domestic product rose 6.5 percent in the fiscal year to the end of March 2012, the lowest growth rate since 4.0 percent in 2002/03 and a sharp slowdown from the previous year's 8.5 percent.

The impact of the euro zone debt crisis, a lack of economic reforms and high interest rates dragged on India's growth throughout last year.

Before Thursday's data, private economists had cut forecasts for Asia's third-largest economy to between 6 percent and 6.5 percent for the fiscal year to March 2013. The government forecasts close to 7.5 percent.

The yield on India's benchmark 10-year government bonds are down 11 basis points so far on Thursday.

The BSE Sensex extended its declines after the data to 1.3 percent on the day.

Anubhuti Sahay, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Mumbai said the data was "shocking".

"A rate cut is a given now," Sahay said.

The rupee fell on Thursday to a record low beyond 56.50 per dollar. Its slide of 14 percent from its 2012 high adds to inflation concerns in the country.

The rupee has fallen in the face of global risk aversion over the euro zone debt crisis. But investors have raised a number of India-specific red flags as well, including a swelling current account, high government spending on subsidies such as oil and a rash of unpredictable regulations and tax as the coalition struggles to push through economic reforms.

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March 16,2024

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New Delhi: The 2024 general election for 543 Lok Sabha seats will be held in seven phases from April 19, Chief Election Commissioner Rajeev Kumar said today, announcing the largest democratic exercise in the world. Results will be announced on June 4.

The seven phases: 
April 19
April 26
May 7
May 13
May 20
May 25
June 1

Simultaneous election for Lok Sabha and assembly will be held in four states -- Sikkim, Odisha, Arunachal Pradesh and Andhra.  

By-elections will also be held for 26 assembly seats across multiple states, including Bihar, Gujarat, Haryana, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu.

Mr Kumar, announcing the dates, sent out a strong message on fake news on social media, saying political parties should ensure responsible social media behaviour -- "verify before you amplify".

"Fake news will be dealt with severely as per existent laws.. Section 79 (3)(B) of the IT Act empowers nodal officers in each state to remove unlawful content," he said.

The other strong message was on violation of model code in terms of hate speeches. "There should be issue-based campaign, no hate speeches, no speeches along caste or religious lines, no criticism of anyone's personal lives," he said.

The media must clarify when they carry political adverts, those cannot masquerade as news, he said. Individual messages regarding this would be sent to the candidates, he added.

The commission has employed 2,100 advisors to keep an eye on these issues and strong action will be taken regarding this, he said.

Voters above the age of 85 years and persons with disabilities, with 40 per cent disability can vote from home, Mr Kumar said. Around 82 lakh voter are above the age of 85, he said.

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March 18,2024

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New Delhi, Mar 18: The Election Commission on Monday afternoon issued orders for the removal of six Home Secretaries - including the top bureaucrats from Gujarat, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh.

The poll panel also directed the transfer of West Bengal's Director-General of Police, the top cop of a state that has seen several instances of poll-related violence in recent years. The poll panel further said a shortlist of three potential replacements had to be prepared and submitted by 5 pm.

The re-shuffle, not an uncommon move by the Election Commission before major polls, also includes the transfer of the Jharkhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand Home Secretaries, as well as senior officials attached to the offices of the Mizoram and Himachal Pradesh Chief Ministers.

In addition, Iqbal Singh Chahal, who is Commissioner of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, and other officials in municipalities across Maharashtra, have been removed too.

All of this comes less than a month before the 2024 Lok Sabha poll; the ECI on Saturday said voting will begin on April 19 and run over seven phases till June 1.

This is, in fact, the first bureaucratic re-jig by the ECI since it announced polling dates.

The ECI's move comes after a meeting of Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar and his two associates, the newly-appointed Gyanesh Kumar and Sukhbir Singh Sandhu. This step comes as part of the poll panel's commitment to ensure a level playing field for all political parties in the forthcoming Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, as well as by-polls for 26 seats in 13 states.

Sources said the personnel removed were found to be holding dual charge in the offices of the respective chief ministers of each state, and this could compromise, or be seen to be compromising, required neutrality, particularly in relation to law-and-order before, during and after polling.

Bengal's ruling Trinamool has not yet reacted to the removal of DGP Rajiv Malik, who is seen by some to be close to Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's party. In the past, the state government has questioned the last-minute re-shuffle of senior civil service and police officials so close to an election, arguing it actually hampers prep work since the new faces need time to adjust to the post.

Bengal has frequently witnessed violence during polling season; in June last year over a dozen people were killed across the state as voting for a panchayat election was underway.

The Trinamool accused the opposition of instigating violence and criticised central forces for their failure to protect voters, while the Congress claimed the state had let thugs loose on the people.

While announcing the dates on Saturday, the Chief Election Commissioner said the poll panel would take a very dim view of any violence during the election. Mr Kumar said the ECI is prepared to come down hard on any such incident. "We're putting political parties on notice," he declared.

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March 25,2024

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Congress leader Rahul Gandhi will face Kerala BJP chief K Surendran in the high-profile Wayanand constituency this Lok Sabha election.

Wayanad, a Congress stronghold, has been with the party since 2009. Mr Gandhi won it in 2019 and retained his Lok Sabha membership, having lost his Amethi seat to Union Minister Smriti Irani.

His rival this time, Mr Surendran, has the significant task of challenging the Congress-Left binary in Kerala's political landscape. Both the Congress and the Left are in a national alliance though they remain rivals in this southern state.

Surendran has contested all three Lok Sabha elections since 2009 and also four Assembly elections. In 2021, he contested from Konni and Manjeshwar seats simultaneously. 

In 2019 general elections, Mr Surendran finished third in Pathanamthitta constituency behind the Congress and the Left. He had lost the 2016 assembly polls from Manjeswaram by merely 89 votes. He also contested a bypoll in 2019, but lost it as well.

He was appointed to head the BJP Kerala unit in 2020 and became the face of the protests against the entry of young women into Sabarimala years ago.

Mr Surendran, who is from Kozhikode, figured in the BJP's fifth candidates' list, which also named actor Kangana Ranaut and former Calcutta High Court judge Abhijit Gangopadhyay.

Wayanad is the second Kerala seat to see a battle of titans after Thiruvananthapuram, where Union Minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar will face the three-time Congress MP Shashi Tharoor.

The BJP has also fielded former vice-chancellor of Sree Sankara Sanskrit University K S Radhakrishnan from Ernakulam and actor-turned-politician G Krishnakumar from Kollam. T N Sarasu, a former educator, will contest from Alathur in Palakkad.

The highlight of the BJP's fifth list was the electoral debut of actor Kangana Ranaut from Mandi in her homestate Himachal Pradesh. The list, which named 111 candidates in 17 states, also featured new joinees like industrialist Naveen Jindal and Mr Gangopadhyay.

Mr Gangopadhyay, who joined the BJP recently after taking voluntary retirement, is the first former judge to join electoral politics. He has been fielded from Tamluk in Bengal and will face Trinamool's Debangshu Bhattacharya, a youth leader who had penned the party's "Khela Hobe" song.

Varun Gandhi, a sitting MP from Pilibhit, has been dropped and his seat has gone to Jitin Prasada, who switched to the BJP from the Congress in run-up to the election. His mother Maneka Gandhi has been fielded from her current seat, Sultanpur.

Actor Arun Govil, who played Ram in popular TV series Ramayan, will contest from Meerut. Union ministers Ashwini Kumar Choubey and General VK Singh too were part of the list.

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