Trump's likely pick for Ambassador knows a lot about India

Agencies
June 23, 2017

Washington, Jun 23: After five months without a U.S. number one in India, Donald Trump appears to have finally chosen the next ambassador to the subcontinent. Kenneth Juster, who serves as a top deputy at the National Economic Council in Trump's White House, will likely exert a steadying influence on U.S.-India relations if his nomination goes forward as expected.

Donald

Juster is a long-time India hand - he chaired the U.S.-India High Technology Cooperation Group and helped spearhead a major new bilateral initiative under the George W. Bush administration - and with his extensive diplomatic experience, he differs from some of Trump's other ambassadorial picks such as Terry Branstad, the former Iowa governor, or Callista Gingrich, his envoy to the Vatican.

That would be a balm for Indians ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first meeting with Trump on June 26 in Washington.

"If Ken Juster is named, the Indians will be pleased about that because he is a known quantity," said Tanvi Madan, director of the India Project at the Brookings Institution. "In a time of a lot of uncertainty, his appointment would be a reassurance."

"He's considered an experienced hand with a good relationship in the White House and other agencies that will make him an effective ambassador," said Ronak D. Desai, a U.S.-India relations expert at Harvard University and fellow at New America.

Rumors swirled in May that Juster was out as Trump's G7 chief negotiator amid personal tensions with other White House staff but was under consideration for India ambassador. Confirmation of his apparently likely nomination was reported in the Washington Post on June 21.

The State Department declined to comment.

If Juster is tapped for the post, he'll have to navigate some significant political minefields, in large part thanks to his former boss in the Oval Office. One key sticking point is climate change. Trump angered the entire world when he pulled out of the Paris climate agreement, and went out of his way to jab India in the process.

He falsely claimed India had only signed onto the agreement for billions of dollars in subsidies in a speech on June 1 announcing his withdrawal. "That rubbed India the wrong way," said Desai. India "invested a lot and went out on a ledge" to back the U.S.-brokered Paris climate agreement.

There's more irritants than just Paris. A spate of attacks on Indian-Americans since Trump came into office has also caused consternation in the subcontinent. And modifications to make it harder for highly-skilled workers overseas to get U.S. visas - part of the Trump White House's "America First" plan, which big tech companies don't like - could hit India hard.

But if anything has chafed Modi, he hasn't let it show publicly. "[India] has very studiously avoided criticizing Trump in a manner other world leaders have done in the past four to five months," said Desai.

Some blame the attacks on Indian-Americans on the racially-charged climate Trump churned up on the campaign trail - and he's been silent on the attacks ever since despite growing concerns among Indians and Indian-Americans.

"Given the very real fears of Indian-Americans and the crucial role of the Indian diaspora in U.S.-India relations, Modi can't afford not to bring up this matter," wrote the Wilson Center's Michael Kugelman.

But Trump's overall policy towards India has yet to take shape. Modi and former President Barack Obama enjoyed a strong personal rapport that boosted bilateral relations during his term. The litmus test for Modi's relationship with Trump comes Monday, when they meet for the first time in Washington.

The two leaders are expected to discuss terrorism, trade, and Indo-Pacific security issues, with an eye on China's growing assertiveness in the Indian Ocean, where the United States and India are cooperating more. Trump jarred the world with his rejection of multilateral free trade deals, excoriating China for what he called unfair trade practices that harm American workers.

India has so far avoided similar ire. Last year, trade between the two nations totalled almost $115 billion; the United States imported about $31 billion more from India than it exported. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has previously signalled that the administration is open to discussing a free trade agreement with the world's sixth-largest economy, though there seems to be little momentum in that direction. (India was not a part of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the 12-nation trade deal Trump pulled out of.)

But unlike China, Saudi Arabia, the Persian Gulf states, and Turkey, India is not a big player on issues like Syria or North Korea - the issues the Trump administration cares most about. That will make Modi work to capture Trump's interest.

"The question will be, what level of attention does India get?" said Madan.

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.
News Network
April 11,2024

vietnamfraud.jpg

Real estate tycoon Truong My Lan was sentenced Thursday to death by a court in Ho Chi Minh city in southern Vietnam in the country's largest financial fraud case ever, state media Thanh Nien said.

It's a rare verdict - she is one of very few women in Vietnam to be sentenced to death for a white collar crime, i.e. looting one of the country's largest banks over a period of 11 years.

The decision is a reflection of the dizzying scale of the fraud. Truong My Lan was convicted of taking out $44bn (£35bn) in loans from the Saigon Commercial Bank. The verdict requires her to return $27bn, a sum prosecutors said may never be recovered. Some believe the death penalty is the court's way of trying to encourage her to return some of the missing billions.

The habitually secretive communist authorities were uncharacteristically forthright about this case, going into minute detail for the media. They said 2,700 people were summoned to testify, while 10 state prosecutors and around 200 lawyers were involved.

The evidence was in 104 boxes weighing a total of six tonnes. Eighty-five defendants were tried with Truong My Lan, who denied the charges.

"There has never been a show trial like this, I think, in the communist era," says David Brown, a retired US state department official with long experience in Vietnam. "There has certainly been nothing on this scale."

The trial was the most dramatic chapter so far in the "Blazing Furnaces" anti-corruption campaign led by the Communist Party Secretary-General, Nguyen Phu Trong.

A conservative ideologue steeped in Marxist theory, Nguyen Phu Trong believes that popular anger over untamed corruption poses an existential threat to the Communist Party's monopoly on power. He began the campaign in earnest in 2016 after out-manoeuvring the then pro-business prime minister to retain the top job in the party.

 The campaign has seen two presidents and two deputy prime ministers forced to resign, and hundreds of officials disciplined or jailed. Now one of the country's richest women has joined their ranks.

Truong My Lan comes from a Sino-Vietnamese family in Ho Chi Minh City, formerly Saigon. It has long been the commercial engine of the Vietnamese economy, dating well back to its days as the anti-communist capital of South Vietnam, with a large, ethnic Chinese community.

She started as a market stall vendor, selling cosmetics with her mother, but began buying land and property after the Communist Party ushered in a period of economic reform, known as Doi Moi, in 1986. By the 1990s, she owned a large portfolio of hotels and restaurants.

Although Vietnam is best known outside the country for its fast-growing manufacturing sector, as an alternative supply chain to China, most wealthy Vietnamese made their money developing and speculating in property.

All land is officially state-owned. Getting access to it often relies on personal relationships with state officials. Corruption escalated as the economy grew, and became endemic.

By 2011, Truong My Lan was a well-known business figure in Ho Chi Minh City, and she was allowed to arrange the merger of three smaller, cash-strapped banks into a larger entity: Saigon Commercial Bank.

Vietnamese law prohibits any individual from holding more than 5% of the shares in any bank. But prosecutors say that through hundreds of shell companies and people acting as her proxies, Truong My Lan actually owned more than 90% of Saigon Commercial.

They accused her of using that power to appoint her own people as managers, and then ordering them to approve hundreds of loans to the network of shell companies she controlled.

The amounts taken out are staggering. Her loans made up 93% of all the bank's lending.

According to prosecutors, over a period of three years from February 2019, she ordered her driver to withdraw 108 trillion Vietnamese dong, more than $4bn (£2.3bn) in cash from the bank, and store it in her basement.

That much cash, even if all of it was in Vietnam's largest denomination banknotes, would weigh two tonnes.

She was also accused of bribing generously to ensure her loans were never scrutinised. One of those who was tried used to be a chief inspector at the central bank, who was accused of accepting a $5m bribe.

The mass of officially sanctioned publicity about the case channelled public anger over corruption against Truong My Lan, whose fatigued, unmade-up appearance in court was in stark contrast to the glamorous publicity photos people had seen of her in the past.

But questions are also being asked about why she was able to keep on with the alleged fraud for so long.

"I am puzzled," says Le Hong Hiep who runs the Vietnam Studies Programme at the ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.

"Because it wasn't a secret. It was well known in the market that Truong My Lan and her Van Thinh Phat group were using SCB as their own piggy bank to fund the mass acquisition of real estate in the most prime locations.

"It was obvious that she had to get the money from somewhere. But then it is such a common practice. SCB is not the only bank that is used like this. So perhaps the government lost sight because there are so many similar cases in the market."

David Brown believes she was protected by powerful figures who have dominated business and politics in Ho Chi Minh City for decades. And he sees a bigger factor in play in the way this trial is being run: a bid to reassert the authority of the Communist Party over the free-wheeling business culture of the south.

"What Nguyen Phu Trong and his allies in the party are trying to do is to regain control of Saigon, or at least stop it from slipping away.

"Up until 2016 the party in Hanoi pretty much let this Sino-Vietnamese mafia run the place. They would make all the right noises that local communist leaders are supposed to make, but at the same time they were milking the city for a substantial cut of the money that was being made down there."

At 79 years old, party chief Nguyen Phu Trong is in shaky health, and will almost certainly have to retire at the next Communist Party Congress in 2026, when new leaders will be chosen.

He has been one of the longest-serving and most consequential secretary-generals, restoring the authority of the party's conservative wing to a level not seen since the reforms of the 1980s. He clearly does not want to risk permitting enough openness to undermine the party's hold on political power.

But he is trapped in a contradiction. Under his leadership the party has set an ambitious goal of reaching rich country status by 2045, with a technology and knowledge-based economy. This is what is driving the ever-closer partnership with the United States.

Yet faster growth in Vietnam almost inevitably means more corruption. Fight corruption too much, and you risk extinguishing a lot of economic activity. Already there are complaints that bureaucracy has slowed down, as officials shy away from decisions which might implicate them in a corruption case.

"That's the paradox," says Le Hong Hiep. "Their growth model has been reliant on corrupt practices for so long. Corruption has been the grease that that kept the machinery working. If they stop the grease, things may not work any more."

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.