'100 days of Trump admin show positive trend for Indo-US ties'

April 29, 2017

Washington, Apr 29: The first hundred days of the Trump administration have shown a positive trend for the Indo-US relationship and the upward trajectory of ties was expected to continue with bipartisan support for it, a former top Indian diplomat has said. On the eve of US President Donald Trump completing 100 days in office, former Indian Ambassador to the US Arun Singh said the Indo–US relationship during this period has broadly proceeded along expected lines.

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"As the engagement of the past hundred days has shown, India is clearly seen as an important interlocutor, with some convergence of interest, and potential for an even stronger mutually beneficial partnership," he told PTI. Beginning in the last phase of the Bush administration and almost all but two years of the Obama administration, Singh was a key player in driving the Indo-US relationship in the last one decade.

During the campaign, President Trump had spoken positively about India and expressed support for consolidating the Indo-US relationship further. Trump has spoken several times on phone with Prime Minister Modi, Singh said. India's National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar have had consultations with senior US officials during their visits this year, he noted. US National Security Adviser Lt Gen H R McMaster recently visited India and also called on the Prime Minister.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley met with US Treasury and Commerce Secretaries earlier this month in Washington, Singh said, referring to the high-level bilateral visits. "We can expect the positive trajectory to continue since there is now bipartisan support in the US for the relationship," Singh said. At the same time, he said acknowledged that there will "no doubt" be some areas of concern. "The eventual US decision on H-1B visas will have consequences for our technology workers and companies. Reduction in US tax rates, if realised, could draw capital into the US and away from other countries," he warned.

"Large US deficit, on account of tax reduction and infrastructure spending, could raise interest rates globally, which would also have consequences for India," the former Indian diplomat said. Responding to a question on Trump's foreign policy in the first 100 days of his administration, Singh, who retired from the foreign service late last year, said 100 days is perhaps too short, and certainly an artificial, 24/7 news cycle driven timeline, to assess the enduring and defining parameters of the foreign policy of any new administration.

"This initial phase is also usually marked by tension between the compulsions ofproposals made during the campaign aimed at rousing the base and getting out the vote, and the constraints subsequently imposed by limits of power and realisation of larger consequences," he said. These hundred days have thus seen the fulfilment of some campaign promises, reversals on others, and several critical issues still being evaluated, Singh noted. Trump was sworn in as the 45th President of the United States on January 20 and completes hundred days in office today.

"As promised in the campaign, President Trump has taken the US out of TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership), convinced Canada and Mexico to agree to a renegotiation of NAFTA (North America Free Trade Agreement), and initiated the process of potential action against steel and aluminium imports into the US. There has also been some focus on dealing with ISIS," Singh said.

On the other hand, unlike the pre-election threats, China has not been declared a currency manipulator, no additional tariffs have been imposed on imports from China, and Chinese President Xi Jinping was lavishly welcomed in April at what is now being described as the 'southern White House' at Mar-a- Lago in Florida, he noted.

"The two agreed to come up with a 100-day plan to address the major trade imbalance. China is also being described as an important interlocutor for addressing the North Korean nuclear and missile challenge," he said. On April 6, Trump authorised missile strikes on a Syrian airbase, using Presidential prerogative under the US Constitution.

"Earlier he had repeatedly called upon his predecessor not to do so, and to consult US Congress before any such action," Singh said. Relations with Russia have not been improved, he observed, adding that attempts to do so immediately have become controversial in view of the raging controversy about alleged Russian intervention in the US elections to benefit Trump.

"This will now be further complicated by the missile strikes in an area where Russian forces were also present, although Russia had been given some prior notice," he said. "President Trump has, similarly, now spoken of strongly supporting NATO, which he had earlier described as obsolete. He has now referred to sharing vital security interests with allies, while continuing to complain about alliance commitments, and asking allies to contribute more," the former Indian Ambassador said. During his illustrious foreign service career, Singh also served as India's ambassador to Israel and France apart from the US.

He said, on Afghanistan, policy options were being studied by the Trump administration. US National Security Adviser had recently visited Afghanistan, Pakistan and India for discussions, Singh said, noting that the outcome of the current more strident approach to North Korea remains to be seen.

"The Administration is also constrained at the moment because a large number of posts in the Departments of State and Defence, as well as in the National Security Council, still remain to be filled," he said.

The decision making process has so far been White House centric, and the attempt has been to project a robust, muscular approach based on America's strengths, including military, and less on projection of 'American values' or 'soft power', he opined.

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April 11,2024

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Real estate tycoon Truong My Lan was sentenced Thursday to death by a court in Ho Chi Minh city in southern Vietnam in the country's largest financial fraud case ever, state media Thanh Nien said.

It's a rare verdict - she is one of very few women in Vietnam to be sentenced to death for a white collar crime, i.e. looting one of the country's largest banks over a period of 11 years.

The decision is a reflection of the dizzying scale of the fraud. Truong My Lan was convicted of taking out $44bn (£35bn) in loans from the Saigon Commercial Bank. The verdict requires her to return $27bn, a sum prosecutors said may never be recovered. Some believe the death penalty is the court's way of trying to encourage her to return some of the missing billions.

The habitually secretive communist authorities were uncharacteristically forthright about this case, going into minute detail for the media. They said 2,700 people were summoned to testify, while 10 state prosecutors and around 200 lawyers were involved.

The evidence was in 104 boxes weighing a total of six tonnes. Eighty-five defendants were tried with Truong My Lan, who denied the charges.

"There has never been a show trial like this, I think, in the communist era," says David Brown, a retired US state department official with long experience in Vietnam. "There has certainly been nothing on this scale."

The trial was the most dramatic chapter so far in the "Blazing Furnaces" anti-corruption campaign led by the Communist Party Secretary-General, Nguyen Phu Trong.

A conservative ideologue steeped in Marxist theory, Nguyen Phu Trong believes that popular anger over untamed corruption poses an existential threat to the Communist Party's monopoly on power. He began the campaign in earnest in 2016 after out-manoeuvring the then pro-business prime minister to retain the top job in the party.

 The campaign has seen two presidents and two deputy prime ministers forced to resign, and hundreds of officials disciplined or jailed. Now one of the country's richest women has joined their ranks.

Truong My Lan comes from a Sino-Vietnamese family in Ho Chi Minh City, formerly Saigon. It has long been the commercial engine of the Vietnamese economy, dating well back to its days as the anti-communist capital of South Vietnam, with a large, ethnic Chinese community.

She started as a market stall vendor, selling cosmetics with her mother, but began buying land and property after the Communist Party ushered in a period of economic reform, known as Doi Moi, in 1986. By the 1990s, she owned a large portfolio of hotels and restaurants.

Although Vietnam is best known outside the country for its fast-growing manufacturing sector, as an alternative supply chain to China, most wealthy Vietnamese made their money developing and speculating in property.

All land is officially state-owned. Getting access to it often relies on personal relationships with state officials. Corruption escalated as the economy grew, and became endemic.

By 2011, Truong My Lan was a well-known business figure in Ho Chi Minh City, and she was allowed to arrange the merger of three smaller, cash-strapped banks into a larger entity: Saigon Commercial Bank.

Vietnamese law prohibits any individual from holding more than 5% of the shares in any bank. But prosecutors say that through hundreds of shell companies and people acting as her proxies, Truong My Lan actually owned more than 90% of Saigon Commercial.

They accused her of using that power to appoint her own people as managers, and then ordering them to approve hundreds of loans to the network of shell companies she controlled.

The amounts taken out are staggering. Her loans made up 93% of all the bank's lending.

According to prosecutors, over a period of three years from February 2019, she ordered her driver to withdraw 108 trillion Vietnamese dong, more than $4bn (£2.3bn) in cash from the bank, and store it in her basement.

That much cash, even if all of it was in Vietnam's largest denomination banknotes, would weigh two tonnes.

She was also accused of bribing generously to ensure her loans were never scrutinised. One of those who was tried used to be a chief inspector at the central bank, who was accused of accepting a $5m bribe.

The mass of officially sanctioned publicity about the case channelled public anger over corruption against Truong My Lan, whose fatigued, unmade-up appearance in court was in stark contrast to the glamorous publicity photos people had seen of her in the past.

But questions are also being asked about why she was able to keep on with the alleged fraud for so long.

"I am puzzled," says Le Hong Hiep who runs the Vietnam Studies Programme at the ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.

"Because it wasn't a secret. It was well known in the market that Truong My Lan and her Van Thinh Phat group were using SCB as their own piggy bank to fund the mass acquisition of real estate in the most prime locations.

"It was obvious that she had to get the money from somewhere. But then it is such a common practice. SCB is not the only bank that is used like this. So perhaps the government lost sight because there are so many similar cases in the market."

David Brown believes she was protected by powerful figures who have dominated business and politics in Ho Chi Minh City for decades. And he sees a bigger factor in play in the way this trial is being run: a bid to reassert the authority of the Communist Party over the free-wheeling business culture of the south.

"What Nguyen Phu Trong and his allies in the party are trying to do is to regain control of Saigon, or at least stop it from slipping away.

"Up until 2016 the party in Hanoi pretty much let this Sino-Vietnamese mafia run the place. They would make all the right noises that local communist leaders are supposed to make, but at the same time they were milking the city for a substantial cut of the money that was being made down there."

At 79 years old, party chief Nguyen Phu Trong is in shaky health, and will almost certainly have to retire at the next Communist Party Congress in 2026, when new leaders will be chosen.

He has been one of the longest-serving and most consequential secretary-generals, restoring the authority of the party's conservative wing to a level not seen since the reforms of the 1980s. He clearly does not want to risk permitting enough openness to undermine the party's hold on political power.

But he is trapped in a contradiction. Under his leadership the party has set an ambitious goal of reaching rich country status by 2045, with a technology and knowledge-based economy. This is what is driving the ever-closer partnership with the United States.

Yet faster growth in Vietnam almost inevitably means more corruption. Fight corruption too much, and you risk extinguishing a lot of economic activity. Already there are complaints that bureaucracy has slowed down, as officials shy away from decisions which might implicate them in a corruption case.

"That's the paradox," says Le Hong Hiep. "Their growth model has been reliant on corrupt practices for so long. Corruption has been the grease that that kept the machinery working. If they stop the grease, things may not work any more."

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