3.7 million by Nov 2021: India's covid deaths 6 times higher than official count, says new study

News Network
February 17, 2022

A new study on Wednesday again pegged India's Covid-19 mortality at 3.2-3.7 million by November 2021 providing yet another piece of evidence in support of huge under-counting of Covid deaths in India.

Christophe Guilmoto, a researcher at Centre de Sciences Humaines, Delhi has estimated India's Covid death toll at almost six to eight times higher than the official toll, months after the ferocious second wave -- turning India into one of the world's most severely Covid-affected nations.

For comparison, by early November, India’s official Covid toll was 4,59,000, which has now crossed the 5 lakh mark

If 3.2–3.7 million Covid-19 deaths are taken into account, India would emerge as the country with by far the largest number of Covid-19 deaths in the world, well ahead of the USA (0.8 million), Brazil (0.6), or Mexico (0.3).

With such revised estimates, the global Covid death toll would rise by several million to 7.8–8.3 million till November 1, 2021.

Another outcome of the new estimation relates to Covid mortality rates. The highest crude Covid death rates per inhabitant in November 2021 are observed in Peru with 6 per 1,000 and in Eastern Europe where several countries record rates above 3 per 1,000.

India’s revised Covid-19 death rate of 2.3–2.6 per 1,000 is four times as high as the world's average (0.6) and would place India at the 13-19th rank among the most affected countries — rather than at the 127th rank according to official estimates.

The Union Health Ministry earlier rejected past findings with similar conclusions, noting that underlying assumptions of such studies were flawed.

"We are used to criticisms of our computations. But a gap existed between the deaths reported by the government and what was reported from the ground. There was indirect evidence of serious underestimate, but it was difficult to estimate," Guilmoto said.

The CSH scientist arrived at his estimate by looking at Covid-19 mortality in four different sets of populations and subsequently adopting a novel triangulation process for national death estimates.

The four data sets that he used for the study are (1) general population from Kerala (26,628 Covid deaths) (2) MLAs and MPs (43 deaths with a death rate of 7.4 per 1,000), (2) railway employees (1,952 deaths with rate of 1.5) and (4) school teachers in Karnataka (268 deaths with a rate of 1.36).

These four data sets were used because of the reliability of death estimation, regional representativeness, and demographic characteristics. "Covid-19 data from most of the states was not up to the mark, apart from Kerala and to some extent Karnataka and Tamil Nadu," he said.

In January, Prabhat Jha from the University of Toronto and his coworkers published a study in Science, in which they estimated 3.2 million Covid deaths in India between June 1, 2020 and July 1, 2021, the majority of which occurred from April 1 to July 1, 2021. This is six to seven times higher than the official estimate.

India’s reported Covid death totals are widely believed to be under-reported because of factors like incomplete certification and misattribution to chronic diseases. "Our study finds that Indian Covid-19 deaths are substantially greater than estimated from official reports," Jha reported.

Guilmoto’s study has appeared in the journal PLOS One.

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News Network
November 11,2024

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Udupi, Nov 11: The Karkala town police in Udupi have arrested Krishna Naik, the sculptor responsible for installing a 33-foot Parashurama statue at Umikkal Hill in Bailur, Karkala taluk. 

Naik, the owner of Krish Art World and a resident of Bengaluru's Visvesvaraya Layout, was apprehended in Mahe, part of the Union Territory of Puducherry, for allegedly substituting a look-alike statue in place of a genuine bronze figure at the Parashurama Theme Park in Karkala.

Udupi Superintendent of Police Dr. Arun K confirmed the arrest, stating that Naik faces charges under Sections 420 (cheating) and 409 (criminal breach of trust) of the Indian Penal Code. 

This legal action followed a complaint lodged in June by Krishna Shetty, a resident of Nallur village, Karkala. Shetty claimed that Naik had received a payment of ₹1,25,50,000 from Udupi Nirmithi Kendra for the installation of a bronze Parashurama statue. However, Naik allegedly deceived the government by installing a replica instead.

The statue was unveiled on January 27, 2023, by then Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai. Current Chief Minister Siddaramaiah has since ordered a CID investigation to probe deeper into the alleged fraud surrounding the statue's installation at the theme park.

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News Network
November 22,2024

Mangaluru: A man fell victim to an online scam, losing Rs 1.7 crore after fraudsters posed as officials from TRAI. According to a complaint filed at the CEN police station, the incident began on November 11, when the complainant received a call from an unknown number at 9:49 am.

The caller, claiming to represent TRAI, alleged that another mobile number registered under the complainant's name was involved in illegal activities in Andheri (East), Mumbai. The caller further stated that an FIR was lodged against the complainant for harassment under the guise of marketing. He was instructed to contact Andheri (East) police station immediately or risk his mobile service being deactivated within two hours.

The complainant was subsequently connected to an individual named Pradeep Sawant, who claimed the complainant was implicated in a money laundering scheme linked to the Naresh Goyal fraud case. Sawant alleged that a fraudulent bank account under the complainant's name was opened at Canara Bank, Andheri, and used to purchase a SIM card for illegal activities. He warned that the complainant could face arrest.

Later, the complainant was contacted via WhatsApp video call by individuals posing as Rahul Kumar (a police officer) and Akanksha (a CBI officer). They allegedly sent fabricated CBI documents to his WhatsApp number. The fraudsters demanded money to "resolve" the case. Fearing threats, the complainant allegedly transferred Rs 1.7 crore through RTGS in batches of Rs 53 lakh, Rs 74 lakh, and Rs 44 lakh between November 13 and 19. A case has been registered at the CEN police station and an investigation is ongoing.

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News Network
November 18,2024

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Mangaluru: The Ullal police have arrested Manohar, the owner of Vazco Beach Resort, and its manager Bharath in connection with the drowning of three college girls from Mysuru at the resort’s swimming pool on November 17.

City Commissioner of Police Anupam Agrawal confirmed the arrests, stating that a case has been registered under Section 106 of BNS. The bodies of the victims, all in their twenties, have been handed over to their parents. The women had arrived at the resort for a weekend getaway on November 16.

Following the tragic incident, the resort was sealed by officials led by Mangaluru Assistant Commissioner Harshavardhan. The trade license of the resort, issued on June 13, 2024, has been suspended, and the tourism department has temporarily revoked the resort's registration. These actions prohibit the resort from engaging in any tourism-related activities until further notice.

Someshwara TMC Chief Officer stated that the suspension was due to the resort's failure to implement adequate safety measures, which resulted in the loss of three lives. Further investigations are underway.

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