3.7 million by Nov 2021: India's covid deaths 6 times higher than official count, says new study

News Network
February 17, 2022

A new study on Wednesday again pegged India's Covid-19 mortality at 3.2-3.7 million by November 2021 providing yet another piece of evidence in support of huge under-counting of Covid deaths in India.

Christophe Guilmoto, a researcher at Centre de Sciences Humaines, Delhi has estimated India's Covid death toll at almost six to eight times higher than the official toll, months after the ferocious second wave -- turning India into one of the world's most severely Covid-affected nations.

For comparison, by early November, India’s official Covid toll was 4,59,000, which has now crossed the 5 lakh mark

If 3.2–3.7 million Covid-19 deaths are taken into account, India would emerge as the country with by far the largest number of Covid-19 deaths in the world, well ahead of the USA (0.8 million), Brazil (0.6), or Mexico (0.3).

With such revised estimates, the global Covid death toll would rise by several million to 7.8–8.3 million till November 1, 2021.

Another outcome of the new estimation relates to Covid mortality rates. The highest crude Covid death rates per inhabitant in November 2021 are observed in Peru with 6 per 1,000 and in Eastern Europe where several countries record rates above 3 per 1,000.

India’s revised Covid-19 death rate of 2.3–2.6 per 1,000 is four times as high as the world's average (0.6) and would place India at the 13-19th rank among the most affected countries — rather than at the 127th rank according to official estimates.

The Union Health Ministry earlier rejected past findings with similar conclusions, noting that underlying assumptions of such studies were flawed.

"We are used to criticisms of our computations. But a gap existed between the deaths reported by the government and what was reported from the ground. There was indirect evidence of serious underestimate, but it was difficult to estimate," Guilmoto said.

The CSH scientist arrived at his estimate by looking at Covid-19 mortality in four different sets of populations and subsequently adopting a novel triangulation process for national death estimates.

The four data sets that he used for the study are (1) general population from Kerala (26,628 Covid deaths) (2) MLAs and MPs (43 deaths with a death rate of 7.4 per 1,000), (2) railway employees (1,952 deaths with rate of 1.5) and (4) school teachers in Karnataka (268 deaths with a rate of 1.36).

These four data sets were used because of the reliability of death estimation, regional representativeness, and demographic characteristics. "Covid-19 data from most of the states was not up to the mark, apart from Kerala and to some extent Karnataka and Tamil Nadu," he said.

In January, Prabhat Jha from the University of Toronto and his coworkers published a study in Science, in which they estimated 3.2 million Covid deaths in India between June 1, 2020 and July 1, 2021, the majority of which occurred from April 1 to July 1, 2021. This is six to seven times higher than the official estimate.

India’s reported Covid death totals are widely believed to be under-reported because of factors like incomplete certification and misattribution to chronic diseases. "Our study finds that Indian Covid-19 deaths are substantially greater than estimated from official reports," Jha reported.

Guilmoto’s study has appeared in the journal PLOS One.

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News Network
November 21,2024

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After the US prosecutors charged Gautam Adani with bribery and fraud, Congress reiterated its call for a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) probe into the transactions of the Adani group, and hit out at Prime Minister Narendra Modi, alleging an "internal nexus" between him and "his favourite businessman."

Senior Congress leader Jairam Ramesh said the indictment of Gautam Adani and others by the US Securities and Exchange Commission validates his party’s call for a Joint Parliamentary Committee investigation.

The Congress has been pushing for the probe since January 2023, raising concerns over alleged irregularities involving Adani and his business dealings, said Ramesh.

Ramesh referred to the party’s “Hum Adani ke Hain” series, where 100 questions were raised about the alleged scams and the links between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Gautam Adani.
He noted that the questions remain unanswered, reiterating the need for accountability in the matter.

The US prosecutors have charged Adani with deceiving investors by concealing information about his firm's solar energy project in India, which allegedly involved bribery.

Adani has been charged with securities fraud and conspiracy, according to an indictment unsealed on Wednesday. The case focusses on an agreement between Adani Green Energy Ltd. and another organisation to supply 12 gigawatts of solar power to the Indian government.

'BETRAYAL OF INDIAN INVESTORS'

Congress leader Pawan Khera described the allegations against Gautam Adani and his conglomerate as a “betrayal of Indian investors.”

Taking to X, Khera outlined the US charges, including claims that Adani’s group bribed Indian government officials between 2020 and 2024 to secure contracts. Citing media reports, he also pointed out that Gautam Adani personally met a government official to advance the scheme.

Khera referred to a March 2024 incident where the Adani Group allegedly misled the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange, calling it a “grave violation of investor trust.”

He further highlighted a March 2023 FBI raid on the premises of Sagar Adani, Gautam Adani’s nephew, where electronic devices were seized as part of the investigation.

'SEBI NOT ABLE TO PROVE ANY CHARGES AGAINST ADANI'

Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Priyanka Chaturvedi criticised central probe agencies following US charges against Gautam Adani and others in an alleged bribery case linked to solar energy contracts.

Chaturvedi raised concerns about corporate governance and regulatory oversight in the country. “They talk about corporate governance, responsibility, and accountability. The industrialists should be asked to follow the rules and regulations, but even the agencies were defending him. The SEBI has not yet been able to prove charges against him,” she said, pointing to what she viewed as failures in ensuring accountability.

'BROUGHT DISREPUTE TO INDIA'

On US charges against Gautam Adani, AAP leader Sanjay Singh called for a probe against the industrialist. He said that the probe should be conducted by an investigation agency under the Supreme Court.

"Adani Group has brought disrepute to India. This is a very serious matter. The PM of India should come forward and answer this. All the pending matters against Adani should be probed by an investigation agency under Supreme Court monitoring, and all the corruption done by him, within and outside the country, should come out before the country and action should be taken against him," he said.

BJP DFENDS

BJP IT cell chief Amit Malviya responded sharply to the Opposition’s criticism regarding allegations involving Adani Green Energy and US-based Azure Power. He pointed out that the charges in the indictment are only allegations and emphasised, “The defendants are presumed innocent unless and until proven guilty.”

Malviya argued that the crux of the case concerns agreements to supply 12 GW of power to the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI), contingent on SECI securing power purchase agreements with state electricity distribution companies (SDCs).

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November 23,2024

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Bengaluru: In a boost to the ruling Congress in Karnataka, the party on Saturday swept the by-polls to three Assembly segments, causing a major setback to the BJP-JD(S) alliance in the state.

The Congress has retained Sandur, the seat considered to be its strong hold, and has also bagged Shiggaon and Channapatna segments, which were earlier held by BJP and JD(S) respectively.

The November 13 by-polls to Sandur, Shiggaon and Channapatna Assembly segments had witnessed a fierce fight between the ruling Congress and a combative BJP-JD(S) alliance.

The by-polls to Sandur, Shiggaon and Channapatna were necessitated as the seats fell vacant following the election of their respective representatives -- E Tukaram of Congress, former CM Basavaraj Bommai of BJP, and Union Minister Kumaraswamy of JD(S) to Lok Sabha in May elections.

The by-polls witnessed a straight fight between the ruling Congress and BJP in Sandur and Shiggaon segments, while in Channapatna, JD(S) which is part of the NDA alliance took on the grand old party.

Congress' C P Yogeeshwara won the Channapatna segment, defeating JD(S) candidate and Kumaraswamy's son Nikhil Kumaraswamy, by a margin of 25,413 votes.

Former CM Basavaraj Bommai's son Bharath Bommai of BJP faced defeat against Congress' Yasir Ahmed Khan Pathan in Shiggaon Assembly segment by a margin of 13,448 votes.

In Sandur, Congress candidate E Annapoorna, the wife of Bellary MP E Tukaram, won the seat vacated by her husband, by a margin of 9,649 votes.

Congress' win in the by-poll is seen as an endorsement of both Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and his deputy D K Shivakumar's leadership, and the government's programmes, especially the five guarantee schemes.

Nikhil Kumaraswamy and Bharath Bommai, the third generation of Gowda and Bommai family respectively, who contested this bypolls, have lost. Their fathers and grandfathers had served as Karnataka's Chief Ministers in the past.

While for Bharath Bommai this was his electoral debut, for Nikhil it was his third electoral loss.

Among the three segments, Channapatna was considered to be a high profile battle, where the contest was between C P Yogeeshwara and actor-turned-politician Nikhil Kumaraswamy.

A five-time MLA from the segment and a former Minister, Yogeeshwara had joined the Congress after quitting BJP ahead of nomination.

There were plans to field Yogeeshwara on a JD(S) ticket, but he was not interested in it, and instead wanted Kumaraswamy to support him as BJP candidate. This was not acceptable to Kumaraswamy and his party, following which Yogeeshwara jumped ship.

However, Kumaraswamy had subsequently said he had agreed to Yogeeshwara contesting from BJP, and despite that he jumped ship to Congress, under the influence of Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar and his brother and former MP D K Suresh.

Nikhil had faced defeat in 2019 Lok Sabha and 2023 Assembly polls. It is seen as a setback for Kumaraswamy too, as he could not ensure son's win from the Channapatna, the seat he had twice represented in the past.

Congress' win is crucial for Shivakumar, who is also the state Congress chief and his brother Suresh to strengthen their position in their home district of Ramanagara, a Vokkaliga heartland.

In Shiggaon, BJP's Bharath Bommai, son of Basavaraj Bommai lost against Congress' Yasir Ahmed Khan Pathan, who had faced defeat against the former Chief Minister in the 2023 Assembly polls.

Initially, former MLA Syed Azeempeer Khadri, a Congress' ticket aspirant, had raised a banner of revolt in Shiggaon, by filing his nomination as an independent, but later withdrew after intervention by party leadership.

In Sandur, Bellary MP Tukaram's wife E Annapurna of Congress won from the seat vacated by her husband, against BJP ST Morcha president Bangaru Hanumanthu, who is considered close to party leader and former mining barron G Janardhan Reddy.

Sandur is a Congress' bastion, and Tukaram had represented it four times.

Congress winning the by-polls is seen as "crucial" for Chief Minister Siddaramaiah to assert himself , amid demands for his resignation following charges against him in the MUDA site allotment case.

There were also behind-the-scenes political activities within the ruling Congress earlier this year, with a few ministers in his Cabinet holding closed door meetings, fueling speculation about leadership change. But such activities came to a halt following instructions from the party high command.

It is equally important for Shivakumar, who has not shied away from openly expressing his Chief Ministerial ambitions, amid speculations over "rotational Chief Minister formula," according to which he will become CM after two-and-half years (in this govt's five years tenure), but they have not been officially confirmed by the party.

The defeat in this by-poll is seen as a setback for state BJP President Vijayendra, who has been facing intense criticism and opposition from a section within the party, who have raised a banner of revolt against his leadership accusing him and his father, veteran leader B S Yediyurappa of "adjustment politics".

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November 13,2024

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Bengaluru: An estimated overall 10.14 per cent voter turnout was recorded during the first two hours, since the voting began for bypolls to three Assembly segments in Karnataka on Wednesday, election officials said.

The voting began at 7 am and will go on till 6 pm.

More than seven lakh voters are eligible to cast their votes in about 770 polling stations in Shiggaon, Sandur and Channapatna, where a total of 45 candidates are in the fray.

While Channapatna recorded 10.34 per cent voter turnout till 9 am, it was 10.08 per cent in Shiggaon, and 9.99 per cent in Sandur, election officials said.

Voters, including women and elderly were seen queuing up in front of polling booths in these segments.

By-polls for Sandur, Shiggaon, and Channapatna are necessitated, as the seats fell vacant following the election of their respective representatives -- E Tukaram of Congress, former CM Basavaraj Bommai of BJP, and Union Minister H D Kumaraswamy of JD(S) -- to Lok Sabha in May elections.

As many as 31 candidates are in the fray from Channapatna, while Sandur and Shiggaon have six and eight contenders, respectively.

Elaborate security arrangements have been made in the three segments for the smooth conduct of the polls.

The by-polls will witness a straight fight between the ruling Congress and BJP in Sandur and Shiggaon segments, while in Channapatna, JD(S) which is part of the NDA alliance is in contest against the grand old party.

Among the three segments, Channapatna is considered to be a "high profile", where the contest is between C P Yogeeshwara, a five time MLA from the segment and former Minister, who joined the Congress quitting BJP ahead of nomination, and actor-turned -politician Nikhil Kumaraswamy, who is Kumaraswamy’s son and former PM H D Deve Gowda's grandson.

BJP's Bharath Bommai, son of Basavaraj Bommai, is fighting Congress Yasir Ahmed Khan Pathan, who had faced defeat against the former Chief Minister in the 2023 Assembly polls, in Shiggaon.

Bharath Bommai and his father cast their vote at a polling booth in Shiggaon segment.

In Sandur, Bellary MP Tukaram's wife E Annapurna of Congress is contesting from the seat vacated by her husband, against, BJP ST Morcha president Bangaru Hanumanthu, who is considered close to party leader and former mining barron G Janardhan Reddy.

Annapurna, Tukaram and other family members cast their votes at a booth in the segment.

With Nikhil Kumaraswamy and Bharath Bommai contesting, the third generation of Gowda and Bommai families are in the fray in this by-poll. Both their fathers and grandfathers have served as Karnataka's Chief Ministers in the past.

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