Economy to Grow Only 0.3% in 2 Years as India Enters First Technical Recession

News Network
November 30, 2020

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New Delhi: The Indian economy is forecast to show an average growth of only 0.3 per cent in two years as India enters its first technical recession, GDP could post further decline in 3QFY21.

As per a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services, “Real GDP declined 7.5 per cent YoY in 2QFY21 (or 3QCY20), worse than our expectation, but better than the market consensus”.

Fiscal spending, consumption plus investments, posted its first major contraction since FY15 and is the worst on record. On the contrary, decline in private spending narrowed to -9.2 per cent in 2QFY21 from -35.4 per cent YoY in 1Q. The government and private sectors are naturally highly interlinked with each other, the report said.

A comparison of India with other major nations suggests India is no longer the worst affected economy — as the Philippines’ real GDP saw double-digit decline in 3QCY20 and decline was also higher in the UK and Mexico.

Due to a weaker-than-expected 2QFY21, we revise down our 3QFY21 and 4QFY21 growth forecasts.

“We now pencil in a decline of 1.2 per cent YoY in 3QFY21 (v/s a negligible decline earlier) and growth of 2.3 per cent YoY in 4QFY21 (v/s +4.2 per cent projected earlier). Accordingly, India’s real GDP is forecast to decline 7.5 per cent YoY in FY21 (v/s the previous forecast of -6.5 per cent ), but grow 8.5 per cent in FY22 (against 7.8 per cent growth expected earlier). This implies average growth of only 0.3 per cent in the two years,” the report said.

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News Network
November 23,2024

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Bengaluru: In a boost to the ruling Congress in Karnataka, the party on Saturday swept the by-polls to three Assembly segments, causing a major setback to the BJP-JD(S) alliance in the state.

The Congress has retained Sandur, the seat considered to be its strong hold, and has also bagged Shiggaon and Channapatna segments, which were earlier held by BJP and JD(S) respectively.

The November 13 by-polls to Sandur, Shiggaon and Channapatna Assembly segments had witnessed a fierce fight between the ruling Congress and a combative BJP-JD(S) alliance.

The by-polls to Sandur, Shiggaon and Channapatna were necessitated as the seats fell vacant following the election of their respective representatives -- E Tukaram of Congress, former CM Basavaraj Bommai of BJP, and Union Minister Kumaraswamy of JD(S) to Lok Sabha in May elections.

The by-polls witnessed a straight fight between the ruling Congress and BJP in Sandur and Shiggaon segments, while in Channapatna, JD(S) which is part of the NDA alliance took on the grand old party.

Congress' C P Yogeeshwara won the Channapatna segment, defeating JD(S) candidate and Kumaraswamy's son Nikhil Kumaraswamy, by a margin of 25,413 votes.

Former CM Basavaraj Bommai's son Bharath Bommai of BJP faced defeat against Congress' Yasir Ahmed Khan Pathan in Shiggaon Assembly segment by a margin of 13,448 votes.

In Sandur, Congress candidate E Annapoorna, the wife of Bellary MP E Tukaram, won the seat vacated by her husband, by a margin of 9,649 votes.

Congress' win in the by-poll is seen as an endorsement of both Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and his deputy D K Shivakumar's leadership, and the government's programmes, especially the five guarantee schemes.

Nikhil Kumaraswamy and Bharath Bommai, the third generation of Gowda and Bommai family respectively, who contested this bypolls, have lost. Their fathers and grandfathers had served as Karnataka's Chief Ministers in the past.

While for Bharath Bommai this was his electoral debut, for Nikhil it was his third electoral loss.

Among the three segments, Channapatna was considered to be a high profile battle, where the contest was between C P Yogeeshwara and actor-turned-politician Nikhil Kumaraswamy.

A five-time MLA from the segment and a former Minister, Yogeeshwara had joined the Congress after quitting BJP ahead of nomination.

There were plans to field Yogeeshwara on a JD(S) ticket, but he was not interested in it, and instead wanted Kumaraswamy to support him as BJP candidate. This was not acceptable to Kumaraswamy and his party, following which Yogeeshwara jumped ship.

However, Kumaraswamy had subsequently said he had agreed to Yogeeshwara contesting from BJP, and despite that he jumped ship to Congress, under the influence of Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar and his brother and former MP D K Suresh.

Nikhil had faced defeat in 2019 Lok Sabha and 2023 Assembly polls. It is seen as a setback for Kumaraswamy too, as he could not ensure son's win from the Channapatna, the seat he had twice represented in the past.

Congress' win is crucial for Shivakumar, who is also the state Congress chief and his brother Suresh to strengthen their position in their home district of Ramanagara, a Vokkaliga heartland.

In Shiggaon, BJP's Bharath Bommai, son of Basavaraj Bommai lost against Congress' Yasir Ahmed Khan Pathan, who had faced defeat against the former Chief Minister in the 2023 Assembly polls.

Initially, former MLA Syed Azeempeer Khadri, a Congress' ticket aspirant, had raised a banner of revolt in Shiggaon, by filing his nomination as an independent, but later withdrew after intervention by party leadership.

In Sandur, Bellary MP Tukaram's wife E Annapurna of Congress won from the seat vacated by her husband, against BJP ST Morcha president Bangaru Hanumanthu, who is considered close to party leader and former mining barron G Janardhan Reddy.

Sandur is a Congress' bastion, and Tukaram had represented it four times.

Congress winning the by-polls is seen as "crucial" for Chief Minister Siddaramaiah to assert himself , amid demands for his resignation following charges against him in the MUDA site allotment case.

There were also behind-the-scenes political activities within the ruling Congress earlier this year, with a few ministers in his Cabinet holding closed door meetings, fueling speculation about leadership change. But such activities came to a halt following instructions from the party high command.

It is equally important for Shivakumar, who has not shied away from openly expressing his Chief Ministerial ambitions, amid speculations over "rotational Chief Minister formula," according to which he will become CM after two-and-half years (in this govt's five years tenure), but they have not been officially confirmed by the party.

The defeat in this by-poll is seen as a setback for state BJP President Vijayendra, who has been facing intense criticism and opposition from a section within the party, who have raised a banner of revolt against his leadership accusing him and his father, veteran leader B S Yediyurappa of "adjustment politics".

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News Network
November 27,2024

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Gaza health authorities say Israel’s military has "erased” over 1,400 Palestinian families in the besieged territory over the past year.

The Health Ministry said in a statement on Tuesday that the Israeli regime "completely erased about 1,410 families, numbering 5,444 people, from the civil registry during the same period.”

It said that there were 3,463 families with only one survivor, while 2,287 families had more than one survivor.

In northern Gaza, Israel’s warplanes have continued dropping bombs over Palestinian families, Palestinian news agency Wafa reported.

It said one airstrike hit a family home in Jabalia, causing numerous casualties on Tuesday.

According to Gaza's civil defense agency, at least seven people were killed and several others wounded in the attack.

Another person was killed in a strike on a house in nearby Beit Lahia, a town in northern Gaza, which has been declared “a disaster area" by the municipality due to "the Israeli war of extermination and siege, and it has no food, water, hospitals, doctors, services, or communications."

The health ministry said, “Israeli forces killed 14 people and injured 108 others in three massacres of families in the last 24 hours.”

“Many people are still trapped under the rubble and on the roads as rescuers are unable to reach them.”

International organizations and leaders believe that Israel’s genocidal war, now in its second year, is a deliberate attempt to destroy the population of Gaza.

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News Network
November 21,2024

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Shares of Adani Group companies lost about $28 billion in market value in morning trade on Thursday after US prosecutors charged the billionaire chairman of the Indian conglomerate in an alleged bribery and fraud scheme.

Gautam Adani's flagship company Adani Enterprises tumbled 23 per cent, while Adani Ports, Adani Total Gas, Adani Green, Adani Power, Adani Wilmar and Adani Energy Solutions, ACC , Ambuja Cements and NDTV fell between 20 per cent and 90 per cent.

Adani group's 10 listed stocks had a total market capitalisation of about $141 billion at 0534 GMT, compared to $169.08 billion on Tuesday.

US authorities said Adani and seven other defendants, including his nephew Sagar Adani, agreed to pay about $265 million in bribes to Indian government officials to obtain contracts expected to yield $2 billion of profit over 20 years, and develop India's largest solar power plant project.

Adani Green in a statement on Thursday said the US Justice Department had issued a criminal indictment against board members Gautam Adani and Sagar Adani and the Securities and Exchange Commission had issued a civil complaint against them.

The US Justice Department also included Adani Green board member Vneet Jaain in the criminal indictment, it said.

Adani Green's units had decided not to proceed with the proposed US dollar denominated bond offerings due to developments, it added.

"Investors will shy away from Adani Group stocks ... and that's what this sharp selling is signifying," said Saurabh Jain, assistant vice president of retail equities research at SMC Global Securities.

"This could hurt the credibility of the group and maybe borrowing costs will rise," he said.

The indictment comes nearly two years after US shortseller Hindenburg Research alleged that Adani had improperly used tax havens and was involved in stock manipulation, allegations the conglomerate denied.

Also in early Asian trading on Thursday, Adani dollar bonds slumped, with prices down 3c-5c on bonds for Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone. The falls were the largest since the Adani Group came under a short-seller attack in February 2023.

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