Fitch revises India GDP forecast, sees contraction at 9.4 per cent

Agencies
December 8, 2020

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New Delhi, Dec 8: Fitch Ratings on Tuesday raised India's GDP forecast to -9.4 per cent in the current fiscal year to March 2021 from a previously projected contraction of 10.5 per cent after the economy staged a sharper rebound in the second quarter.

In its Global Economic Outlook, Fitch said the coronavirus recession has inflicted severe economic scarring and the country needs to repair balance sheets and increase caution about long-term planning.

"We now expect GDP to contract 9.4 per cent in the fiscal year to end March 2021 (FY21) (+1.1 percentage point), followed by +11 per cent growth (unchanged) and +6.3 per cent growth (+0.3pp) in the following years," the rating agency said.

The projections compare to a GDP growth of 4.2 per cent in 2019-20 (April 2019 to March 2020) fiscal and 6.7 per cent annual expansion between 2015 and 2019.

In September, Fitch had sharply lowered its forecast for India's gross domestic product (GDP) to a contraction of 10.5 per cent in current fiscal 2020-21 (FY21) versus its previous estimate of 5 per cent contraction.

On Tuesday, Fitch said the Indian economy staged a sharper rebound in the July-September quarter from the coronavirus-induced recession. GDP fell 7.5 per cent year-on-year, up from -23.9 per cent in the April-June quarter.

"The rebound in activity was especially sharp in the manufacturing sector: output reached its pre-pandemic level in 3Q20 (July-September), and the manufacturing PMI hints at further gains," it said adding that manufacturing is buoyed by strong demand for autos and pharmaceutical products, in particular.

The rebound in the services sector was more muted amid continued social distancing, with containment measures scaled back only gradually.

"The outlook is brighter owing to an expected rollout of various vaccines in 2021. India has pre-ordered 1.6 billion doses including 500 million doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine. Distribution should allow a faster-than-expected easing of social-distancing restrictions and boost sentiment," it said.

However, it seems likely that the vaccine rollout over the next 12 months will not reach the majority of the people given the huge logistical and distribution challenges in a heavily populated country like India, Fitch said.

Regional shutdowns are likely in the next few months while the virus is still spreading.

The coronavirus recession, it said, has nevertheless inflicted severe economic scarring.

"The need to repair balance sheets, increased caution about long-term planning, and firm closures will limit investment demand. Furthermore, increased financial-sector weakness amid deteriorating asset quality will hold back credit provision," the rating agency said.

The failure of another bank in recent weeks the third failure in the past 16 months underlines the challenges in the financial sector.

Consumer prices have continued to accelerate in recent months, buoyed by lingering supply disruptions.

This, Fitch said, has deterred the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) from resuming its easing cycle.

"We think inflation has now peaked and should start to decelerate rapidly on favourable base effects and an easing of supply disruptions. This should provide room for the RBI to cut interest rates in 2021," it said.

Fitch saw consumer price inflation at 4.9 per cent in the current fiscal, which would ease to 3.5 per cent in the next.

For the global economy, it projected a less severe decline in GDP at -3.7 per cent in 2020 compared to -4.4 per cent in the September projection.

It also revised up its annual world GDP growth forecast for 2021, but only modestly, to 5.3 per cent (from 5.2 per cent), as the deteriorating outlook in the very near term partially offsets a stronger outlook from the sector half of the year.

"We are now significantly more optimistic for 2022, as we assume vaccine rollout will facilitate a material easing in social distancing," it said.

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News Network
November 21,2024

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The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former minister of military affairs Yoav Gallant over war crimes against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

The court’s Pre-Trial Chamber I issued warrants of arrest for Netanyahu and Gallant "for crimes against humanity and war crimes committed from at least 8 October 2023 until at least 20 May 2024, the day the Prosecution filed the applications for warrants of arrest”, it confirmed in a statement Thursday.

It is the first instance in the court's 22-year history it has issued arrest warrants for Western-allied senior officials.

In its statement, the ICC's Pre-Trial Chamber I, a panel of three judges, said it has rejected appeals by Israel challenging its jurisdiction. 

The chamber said it has decided to release the arrest warrants because "conduct similar to that addressed in the warrant of arrest appears to be ongoing", referring to Israel's ongoing onslaught on Gaza.

Netanyahu and Gallant, it said, “each bear criminal responsibility” for “the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare; and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts,” as well as “intentionally directing an attack against the civilian population.”

All 124 states that signed the Rome Statute, the treaty that established the court, are now under an obligation to arrest the wanted individuals and hand them over to the ICC in the Hague. 

The court relies on the cooperation of member states to arrest and surrender suspects. The Netherlands' foreign minister quickly said his country was prepared to enforce the warrants while 93 nations earlier reiterated their support for the ICC.

Triestino Mariniello, a lawyer representing Palestinian victims at the ICC, called the warrants "a historic decision".

He noted that the court had endured "pressure and threats of sanctions" from the US government, but acted nonetheless.

As expected, the Tel Aviv regime rejected the rulings, with its security minister Itamar Ben Gvir calling the warrants “anti-Semitic through and through.”

The ICC said Israel’s acceptance of the court’s jurisdiction was not required.

Israel and its major ally, the United States, are not members of the court. 

Israel unleashed its bloody Gaza onslaught on October 7, 2023. So far, it has killed at least 43,985 Palestinians, mostly women and children, and injured 104,092 others, according to the Gaza Health Ministry.

Israel faces an ongoing South Africa-led genocide case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

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News Network
November 26,2024

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Islamabad: Four paramilitary personnel and two policemen have been killed and over 100 security personnel injured as the protest by supporters of jailed former prime minister Imran Khan turned violent prompting the federal government to deploy the army in the national capital along with shoot at sight orders on Tuesday, state-run media said.

Pakistan deployed the army amid a tense stand-off with Khan's supporters from his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) pushing forward by removing hurdles on their way to Islamabad's D-Chowk venue as the government vowed to foil their attempt “even if a curfew needs to be imposed.”

Radio Pakistan said a vehicle rammed into Pakistan Rangers personnel killing four Rangers officials on the Srinagar Highway in Islamabad late on Monday night. Five other Rangers personnel and several police officials too sustained severe injuries.

About five kilometres from this spot, a bunch of miscreants, equipped with weapons and ammunition, pelted stones on the Rangers personnel and carried out indiscriminate firing on the security personnel at Chungi No 26 in Rawalpindi, Radio Pakistan said.

It also reported that two policemen were killed but didn't provide any details.

According to Punjab police, one policeman was killed at Hakla interchange on Islamabad outskirts during clashes with the PTI protestors on Monday but it also did not give details about the second policeman.

Separately, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi said, at a late night media interaction, that more than one hundred security personnel, mostly from police, were injured and added: “One senior police officer (SP) was critically injured – he suffered a severe head injury -- due to stone-pelting by protesters.”

Radio Pakistan further reported that the Pakistan Army was called in “to deal with the miscreants with an iron hand” and “clear orders have also been issued to shoot miscreants and troublemakers on sight.”

Strongly condemning the attack on Rangers and police personnel by protesters, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, in a statement, directed to immediately identify those involved in the incident and ensure they are brought to justice.

“Attacks on police and Rangers, under the guise of a so-called peaceful protest, are condemnable,” he said, adding, the anarchist group seeks bloodshed and “Pakistan cannot afford any form of chaos or bloodshed. Bloodshed for nefarious political agenda is unacceptable and highly condemnable.”

He also instructed to provide the best possible medical facilities to those injured.

Interior Minister Naqvi said the government had offered an alternative venue to the protestors to stage their activity at Sangjani in the suburbs of the capital and apparently Khan has also agreed to it.

Despite permission given by Khan, “maybe there is a leadership above Imran Khan who has refused to accept this,” he claimed and confirmed that talks were going on with the PTI to resolve the issue and that the PTI leaders were allowed to meet Khan twice on Monday to get his input.

The government is waiting for a formal response to its offer of an alternative venue for protest and “we are now waiting for PTI’s response before taking further steps,” Naqvi added.

Naqvi also warned that “come what may, the PTI would not be allowed to stage a protest at D Chowk and even hinted of imposing a curfew if needed.”

Security sources also said that all necessary measures are being taken to counter terrorist activities by disruptive and extremist elements. “All the miscreants are also being identified to bring them to justice,” the sources added.

Meanwhile, the PTI accused the authorities of using violence in which several of its supporters have been injured. A PTI spokesman told BBC Urdu that at least two supporters have also been killed but it was not confirmed from other sources so far.

Khan, 72, the PTI founder, has been in jail since August 5, 2023, and had given the ‘final call’ for the protest to force the authorities to release all prisoners, including himself, and also restore the alleged stolen mandate or victory of his party in February 8 elections as well as rescind the last month's 26th constitutional amendment allowing the government more powers over judiciary.

Earlier on Sunday, led by Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur and Khan's wife, Bushra Bibi, the PTI supporters began their journey from the militancy-hit province with a mission to make it to D-Chowk in the national capital but faced obstacles on the roads.

The D-Chowk, close to several important government buildings: the Presidency, the PM Office, the Parliament, and the Supreme Court, is a prime location in the national capital.

The authorities had blocked the highways by placing shipping containers but the protestors accompanied by lifting equipment and other heavy machines worked their way by removing hurdles, but the hurdles did skittle their speed and plans.

The convoy entered Islamabad from Sangjani toll plaza. The party also shared footage of the KP convoy in Islamabad’s limits.

The government already banned rallies by imposing Section 144, a colonial era law used to outlaw political activities, as a high level delegation from Belarus was visiting Pakistan.

At least one policeman was killed and dozen others injured in clashes on Monday as thousands of the PTI protestors entered the territorial jurisdiction of the national capital. In one of the clashes, a policeman was killed at the Hakla interchange on Islamabad outskirts.

Another constable of the Sargodha police was injured due to “firing by miscreants” and was being treated, local media said, adding, dozens of other policemen too were injured in the clashes, but exact details were not available.

As the convoy entered the capital territory in the evening, Bushra Bibi said in a video message: “My brothers, as long as Imran is not with us, we will not end this march.”

Meanwhile, as announced on Monday, all public and private educational institutions would remain closed in view of the law and order situation both at Islamabad and Rawalpindi on Tuesday.

Khan has been implicated in dozens of cases since his government was dismissed through a no-confidence motion in 2022. He has been in Adiala Jail at Rawalpindi since last year facing over 200 cases.

His party won the largest number of seats in the February general elections despite contesting as independents as the party was denied an election symbol.

The party founder has alleged that the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and its coalition partners, including the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), had “stolen the mandate” to grab power at the federal level.

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News Network
November 15,2024

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Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has killed or captured 69 terrorists linked to the Israeli spy agency Mossad during a major counterterrorism drill in the country's southeast, its spokesman says.  

General Ahmad Shafaei, the spokesman for the “Martyrs of Security” drill, said Friday that a total of 23 terrorists have been killed and another 46 arrested in various clean-up operations ever since the IRGC Ground Force launched it in the Sistan and Baluchestan province on November 1.

Seven terrorists have also turned themselves in during the period.

“The undeniable fact about terrorists is that they rely on arrogant powers, particularly the intelligence service of the wicked and vicious Zionist regime," Shafaei said.

“Unfortunately, weapons and munitions at terrorists’ disposal are among the most sophisticated ones in the world. This accounts for their heavy dependence.” 

The official stated that several members of the disbanded terror teams were non-Iranian nationals, who had been hired by foreign intelligence agencies to carry out acts of sabotage and terror inside Iran.

In a most recent operation, six terrorists were arrested and four others were eliminated, three of whom were non-Iranians, he added. 

On October 26, ten members of Iran's law enforcement forces were killed in a terrorist attack in the Gohar Kuh district of Taftan in the Sistan and Baluchestan province.

The so-called Jaish al-Adl terrorist group claimed responsibility for the assault, which was one of the deadliest in the province in recent months.

The group has carried out numerous terrorist attacks in Iran, primarily in Sistan and Baluchestan.

Its tactics include the abduction of border guards as well as targeting civilians and police stations within the province to incite chaos and disorder.

In January, Iran launched a military operation during which the headquarters of the Pakistan-based terrorist group was targeted in missile strikes, destroying its infrastructure.

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