High fiscal deficit to pose challenge in lowering India’s debt to GDP ratio: Fitch

Agencies
February 10, 2021

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New Delhi, Feb 10: Fitch Ratings on Wednesday said India's high fiscal deficit would pose a challenge in lowering the debt to GDP ratio, which is expected to remain above 90 per cent in the next five years.

It said India entered the pandemic with little fiscal headroom from a rating perspective. Its general government debt/GDP ratio stood at 72 per cent in 2019, against a median of 42 per cent for 'BBB' rated peers.

Fitch said the budget points to a loosening of fiscal policy to support the country's ongoing economic recovery from the pandemic and will consequently lead to a rise in public debt.

The debt/GDP trajectory is core to our sovereign rating assessment, meaning higher deficits and a slower consolidation path will make India's medium-term growth outlook take on a more critical role in our analysis, Fitch Ratings said in a statement.

It now expects public debt/GDP to rise above 90 per cent of GDP over the next five years, based on the revised budget targets. However, recent reforms and policy measures, including those announced in the budget, could also influence the rating agency's growth expectations and its debt trajectory forecasts.

Fitch estimated India to clock a 11 per cent growth in the fiscal beginning April and then grow at 6.5 per cent a year through to 2025-26 fiscal.

The agency had in June last year revised India's 'BBB-' rating outlook to negative from stable based on its assumptions of the likely impact of pandemic on public finance.

"The budget's deficit projections for the fiscal years ending March 2022 (FY22) to FY26 are about 1pp (percentage point) a year above our previous estimates between, which could make it more challenging to put debt/GDP on a downward trajectory," Fitch said.

India has exceeded its fiscal deficit target of 3.5 per cent in the current fiscal by a wide margin due to higher spendings to stimulate the economy amid the pandemic.

The fiscal deficit - the excess of government expenditure over its revenues - has been pegged at 9.5 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the current fiscal ending March 31, as per the revised estimate.

For the 2021-22 fiscal, beginning April 1, the deficit has been put at 6.8 per cent of the GDP, which will be further lowered to 4.5 per cent by 2025-26 fiscal ending March 31, 2026.

Fitch said the budget, presented in Parliament on February 1, has the potential to lift growth prospects. Higher expenditure will support the near-term recovery and increased infrastructure spending could boost sustainable medium-term growth rates.

Labour market and agricultural reforms that were legislated in September 2020 could also lift medium-term growth.

However, recent adverse court rulings have highlighted implementation challenges to these reforms, and there is a risk that fiscal spending could also fall short of planned levels. Meanwhile, the budget's proposed increases in import tariffs could dampen trade and economic growth, it said.

"Although there are implementation risks around aspects of the budget, we regard the government's overall fiscal projections as broadly credible.The budget's higher deficit forecasts are partly driven by positive steps toward greater transparency, as previously off-balance-sheet items, such as loans from the Food Corporation of India, have been brought on budget," Fitch added.

Fitch said the extent to which policy changes address weaknesses in India's financial sector will also influence the country's medium-term growth potential. "We believe the proposed injection of Rs 20,000 crore (USD2.7 billion) of new capital into state banks will be insufficient to alleviate the anticipated incremental stress on capital levels in 2021 and 2022. State banks are likely to continue to experience asset-quality problems, weak profitability and small capital buffers and, as a result, we project credit growth to remain soft in the absence of further government action".

The proposed establishment of an asset reconstruction company and an asset management company to deal with bad banking sector assets should be credit positive, dependent on the details of its structure and implementation.

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News Network
November 26,2024

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Islamabad: Four paramilitary personnel and two policemen have been killed and over 100 security personnel injured as the protest by supporters of jailed former prime minister Imran Khan turned violent prompting the federal government to deploy the army in the national capital along with shoot at sight orders on Tuesday, state-run media said.

Pakistan deployed the army amid a tense stand-off with Khan's supporters from his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) pushing forward by removing hurdles on their way to Islamabad's D-Chowk venue as the government vowed to foil their attempt “even if a curfew needs to be imposed.”

Radio Pakistan said a vehicle rammed into Pakistan Rangers personnel killing four Rangers officials on the Srinagar Highway in Islamabad late on Monday night. Five other Rangers personnel and several police officials too sustained severe injuries.

About five kilometres from this spot, a bunch of miscreants, equipped with weapons and ammunition, pelted stones on the Rangers personnel and carried out indiscriminate firing on the security personnel at Chungi No 26 in Rawalpindi, Radio Pakistan said.

It also reported that two policemen were killed but didn't provide any details.

According to Punjab police, one policeman was killed at Hakla interchange on Islamabad outskirts during clashes with the PTI protestors on Monday but it also did not give details about the second policeman.

Separately, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi said, at a late night media interaction, that more than one hundred security personnel, mostly from police, were injured and added: “One senior police officer (SP) was critically injured – he suffered a severe head injury -- due to stone-pelting by protesters.”

Radio Pakistan further reported that the Pakistan Army was called in “to deal with the miscreants with an iron hand” and “clear orders have also been issued to shoot miscreants and troublemakers on sight.”

Strongly condemning the attack on Rangers and police personnel by protesters, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, in a statement, directed to immediately identify those involved in the incident and ensure they are brought to justice.

“Attacks on police and Rangers, under the guise of a so-called peaceful protest, are condemnable,” he said, adding, the anarchist group seeks bloodshed and “Pakistan cannot afford any form of chaos or bloodshed. Bloodshed for nefarious political agenda is unacceptable and highly condemnable.”

He also instructed to provide the best possible medical facilities to those injured.

Interior Minister Naqvi said the government had offered an alternative venue to the protestors to stage their activity at Sangjani in the suburbs of the capital and apparently Khan has also agreed to it.

Despite permission given by Khan, “maybe there is a leadership above Imran Khan who has refused to accept this,” he claimed and confirmed that talks were going on with the PTI to resolve the issue and that the PTI leaders were allowed to meet Khan twice on Monday to get his input.

The government is waiting for a formal response to its offer of an alternative venue for protest and “we are now waiting for PTI’s response before taking further steps,” Naqvi added.

Naqvi also warned that “come what may, the PTI would not be allowed to stage a protest at D Chowk and even hinted of imposing a curfew if needed.”

Security sources also said that all necessary measures are being taken to counter terrorist activities by disruptive and extremist elements. “All the miscreants are also being identified to bring them to justice,” the sources added.

Meanwhile, the PTI accused the authorities of using violence in which several of its supporters have been injured. A PTI spokesman told BBC Urdu that at least two supporters have also been killed but it was not confirmed from other sources so far.

Khan, 72, the PTI founder, has been in jail since August 5, 2023, and had given the ‘final call’ for the protest to force the authorities to release all prisoners, including himself, and also restore the alleged stolen mandate or victory of his party in February 8 elections as well as rescind the last month's 26th constitutional amendment allowing the government more powers over judiciary.

Earlier on Sunday, led by Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur and Khan's wife, Bushra Bibi, the PTI supporters began their journey from the militancy-hit province with a mission to make it to D-Chowk in the national capital but faced obstacles on the roads.

The D-Chowk, close to several important government buildings: the Presidency, the PM Office, the Parliament, and the Supreme Court, is a prime location in the national capital.

The authorities had blocked the highways by placing shipping containers but the protestors accompanied by lifting equipment and other heavy machines worked their way by removing hurdles, but the hurdles did skittle their speed and plans.

The convoy entered Islamabad from Sangjani toll plaza. The party also shared footage of the KP convoy in Islamabad’s limits.

The government already banned rallies by imposing Section 144, a colonial era law used to outlaw political activities, as a high level delegation from Belarus was visiting Pakistan.

At least one policeman was killed and dozen others injured in clashes on Monday as thousands of the PTI protestors entered the territorial jurisdiction of the national capital. In one of the clashes, a policeman was killed at the Hakla interchange on Islamabad outskirts.

Another constable of the Sargodha police was injured due to “firing by miscreants” and was being treated, local media said, adding, dozens of other policemen too were injured in the clashes, but exact details were not available.

As the convoy entered the capital territory in the evening, Bushra Bibi said in a video message: “My brothers, as long as Imran is not with us, we will not end this march.”

Meanwhile, as announced on Monday, all public and private educational institutions would remain closed in view of the law and order situation both at Islamabad and Rawalpindi on Tuesday.

Khan has been implicated in dozens of cases since his government was dismissed through a no-confidence motion in 2022. He has been in Adiala Jail at Rawalpindi since last year facing over 200 cases.

His party won the largest number of seats in the February general elections despite contesting as independents as the party was denied an election symbol.

The party founder has alleged that the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and its coalition partners, including the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), had “stolen the mandate” to grab power at the federal level.

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News Network
November 14,2024

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The UN special rapporteur for Palestine has slammed Israel’s parliament for passing a law authorizing the detention of Palestinian children, who are “tormented often beyond the breaking point” in Israeli custody.

Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur on the rights situation in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, in a Thursday post on X, characterized the experiences of Palestinian minors in Israeli detention as extreme and often inhumane.

The UN expert highlighted the grave impact of this policy, noting that up to 700 Palestinian minors are taken into custody each year, a practice she described as part of an unlawful occupation that views these children as potential threats.

Albanese said Palestinian minors in Israeli custody are “tormented often beyond the breaking point” and that “generations of Palestinians will carry the scars and trauma from the Israeli mass incarceration system.”

She further criticized the international community for its inaction, suggesting that ongoing diplomatic efforts, which often rely on the idea of resuming negotiations for peace, have contributed to normalizing such human rights violations against Palestinian children and the broader population.

The comments by Albanese came in response to Israel’s parliament (Knesset) passing a law on November 7 that authorizes the detention of Palestinian children under the age of 14 for “terrorism or terrorist activities.”

Under the legislation, a temporary five-year measure, once the individuals turn 14, they will be transferred to adult prison to continue serving their sentences.

Additionally, the law allows for a three-year clause that enables courts to incarcerate minors in adult prisons for up to 10 days if they are considered dangerous. Courts have the authority to extend this duration if necessary, according to the Knesset.

The legislation underscores a shift in the treatment of minors and raises alarms among human rights advocates regarding the legal and ethical ramifications of detaining children and the conditions under which they may be held.

Thousands of Palestinians, including hundreds of children and women, are currently in Israeli jails—around one-third without charge or trial. Also, an unknown number are arbitrarily held following a wave of arrests in the wake of the regime's genocidal war on Gaza.

Since the onset of the Gaza war, the Israeli regime, under the supervision of extremist minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, has turned prisons and detention centers into “death chambers,” the ministry of detainees and ex-detainees’ affairs in Gaza says.

Violence, extreme hunger, humiliation, and other forms of abuse of Palestinian prisoners have been normalized across Israel’s jail system, reports indicate.

Over 270 Palestinian minors are being detained by Israeli authorities, in violation of UN resolutions and international treaties that forbid the incarceration of children, as reported by Palestinian rights organizations.

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News Network
November 12,2024

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The Taliban regime has appointed Ikramuddin Kamil as the acting consul in the Afghan mission in Mumbai, Afghan media has reported.

It is the first such appointment made by the Taliban set up to any Afghan mission in India.

There was no immediate comment from the Indian side on the appointment that came.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan has announced the appointment of Kamil as the acting consul in Mumbai, the Taliban-controlled Bakhtar News Agency reported on Monday, citing unnamed sources.

"He is currently in Mumbai, where he is fulfilling his duties as a diplomat representing the Islamic Emirate," it said.

The appointment is part of Kabul's efforts to strengthen diplomatic ties with India and enhance its presence abroad, the media outlet said

Kamil holds a PhD degree in international law and previously served as the deputy director in the department of security cooperation and border affairs in the foreign ministry, it said.

He is expected to facilitate consular services and represent the interests of Afghanistan in India, the report added.

Kamil's appointment comes days after the external affairs ministry's point-person for Afghanistan held talks with the Taliban's acting defence minister, Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob, in Kabul.

Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, the Taliban's deputy foreign minister for political affairs, also posted on X about Kamil's appointment.

The appointment of Kamil is seen as part of efforts to facilitate consular services to the Afghan population in Mumbai.

There has been almost negligible presence of diplomatic staff at the Afghan missions in India.

Most of the diplomats appointed by the Ashraf Ghani government have already left India.

In May, Zakia Wardak, the seniormost Afghan diplomat in India, resigned from her position after reports emerged that she was caught at the Mumbai airport for allegedly trying to smuggle 25 kg of gold worth Rs 18.6 crore from Dubai.

Wardak had taken charge as the acting ambassador of Afghanistan to New Delhi late last year, after working as the Afghan consul general in Mumbai for more than two years.

She took charge of the Afghan embassy in New Delhi last November, after the mission helmed by then ambassador Farid Mamundzay announced its closure.

Mamundzay, who was an appointee of the Ghani government, had moved to the United Kingdom.

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