‘Increasingly gloomy developments’: IMF slashes India's 2022 growth forecast to 7.4%

News Network
July 26, 2022

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Washington, July 26: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday slashed its annual growth projection for India by 0.8 percentage points to 7.4 per cent for 2022 and forecast "increasingly gloomy developments" for the global economy such as high inflation, downturn in China because of Covid-19 and spillovers from the war in Ukraine.

The fund cut its 2023 projection for India also by 0.8 percentage points to 6.1 per cent. These revised forecasts are relative to those in the fund's April world outlook report.

The 2022 cut for India "reflects mainly less favorable external conditions and more rapid policy tightening", said the fund's World Economic Outlook Update, titled "Gloomy and More Uncertain".

The World Bank has also slashed its projections for India to 7.5 per cent from 8 per cent for 2022-23, blaming it on a surge in Covid-19 cases, related mobility restrictions and the war in Ukraine.

The IMF forecast for India was called "rational" by an official who spoke on background.

"Given the gloomy global outlook and inflation contagion, IMF's growth forecast for India moderating it down by 0.8 percentage point is rational. Indian economy seems to be far more resilient at this point in time as others like US and China are talking a bigger hit with the forecast cut down to 1.4 and 1.1 percentage points respectively," the official said.

"Further, IMF continues to project India's growth rate in 2022 as the fastest growing major economy with 7.4 per cent and only other country around this rate is Saudi Arabia with 7.6 per cent. Nearest to this ASEAN-5 at 5.3 per cent while China is way down to 3.3 per cent."

The IMF projected a rather grim outlook for the world at large, saying it was facing "increasingly gloomy developments in 2022 as risks (that it had warned in April) began to materialise".

And they are: higher inflation worldwide, specially in the US and major European economies, triggering a sharp tightening in global financial conditions; a sharper-than anticipated slowdown in China, reflecting Covid-19 outbreaks and lockdowns; and further negative cross-border effects from the war in Ukraine.

The IMF slashed its global growth forecast to 3.2 per cent for 2022 and 2.9 per cent in 2023, down from April estimates of 3.6 per cent for both years.

"The outlook has darkened significantly since April," IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in a statement. "The world may soon be teetering on the edge of a global recession, only two years after the last one."

The report acknowledged that though it had warned of inflation, it had not expected it to go so high. At 9.1 per cent for both, inflation has been the highest for the US and the UK in 40 years and at 9.8 per cent in the euro area, it's the highest since the inception of the unified monetary system; and, the report said, emerging and developing economies are also expected to be experiencing inflation at the rate of 9.8 per cent.

With wages not keeping pace in both advanced and emerging markets and developing economies, the report shows that household purchasing power will be eroded.

In China, ongoing Covid-19 outbreaks and mobility restrictions have "disrupted economic activity widely and severely", the fund said, and slowdown in China "has global consequences".

It added: "Lockdowns added to global supply chain disruptions and the decline in domestic spending are reducing demand for goods and services from China's trade partners."

The continuing war in Ukraine is causing "widespread hardship", the report said, detailing the disruptive and debilitating effect it's having on life -- 9 million Ukrainians fleeing the country, for instance -- and economy with existing sanctions on Russia and those coming on its energy export to Europe. 

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News Network
November 11,2024

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Mangaluru: In a deeply tragic turn of events, a 28-year-old woman named Ranjitha, who had recently given birth but tragically lost her newborn, ended her life by suicide on Monday. She reportedly leapt from the fourth-floor window of Lady Goschen Hospital’s luggage room.

Ranjitha, whose strength and resilience had carried her through a difficult pregnancy, was scheduled for discharge on Monday. Her journey to Lady Goschen Hospital began on October 24, when she was transferred from Karkala. She was a high-risk patient, battling both hypertension and diabetes. At the time of her admission, she was just 27 weeks pregnant.

Due to the complexities of her health, doctors made the difficult decision to perform an emergency C-section on October 30. She delivered a baby girl, premature and weighing only 960 grams. The newborn was immediately moved to the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit, where doctors did all they could. Despite these efforts, the baby passed away on November 3.

Ranjitha’s sorrow was profound. She stayed under hospital care even after her initial recovery and was preparing to go home on November 9. She had even requested a couple more days at the hospital, seeking time perhaps to cope with her unimaginable grief.

On the day of her discharge, a discharge card ready and her family eagerly waiting to take her home, Ranjitha reportedly made her way to the luggage room in the early hours. There, standing on a cot placed for patients' family members, she climbed to a window and fell from the fourth floor. Despite the attempts of another visitor to intervene, tragedy was inevitable. She was rushed to Government Wenlock Hospital, where doctors confirmed the worst—she was no more.

Dr. Durgaparasad M R, the Medical Superintendent at Lady Goschen Hospital, shared his grief and spoke of the ongoing investigation. A post-mortem is to be conducted, and the local Tahsildar will complete the necessary inquest procedures. Ranjitha’s exact reasons for taking this step are yet to be confirmed, though the weight of her recent losses paints a sorrowful picture.

If you or anyone you know is struggling emotionally, please remember that help is available. Reach out to mental health experts who can provide support and guidance. The toll-free helpline number 9152987821 is available to assist anyone in distress.

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News Network
November 11,2024

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The Manipur Kuki MLAs have released a statement calling out Solicitor General Tushar Mehta's 'lies' in the Supreme Court. In a joint statement, the MLAs, including those from the Bharatiya Janata Party, said they had not had any meeting with the Chief Minister since May 3, 2023, nor did they intend to meet him in the future as “he was the mastermind behind the violence”.

As per the MLAs, the SG lied about state CM N Biren Singh speaking to Kuki MLAs to control the situation there, in order to halt a Supreme Court probe into the leaked tapes which allege that Singh has been complicit in the violence that broke out between Kukis and Meitis there.

"We...clarify that we have never had any meeting with Chief Minister, Shri N. Biren Singh since May 3, 2023, nor have any intention to meet him in future as he is the mastermind behind the violence and ethnic cleansing of our people from the Imphal valley, which is continuing till today, the latest being the brutal killing and burning of Mrs Zosangkim Hmar on November 7, 2024," the letter read, while condemning the recent 'barbaric' killing of the woman there, and noting the SG's assertion is 'tantamount' to misleading the top court.

“We, the undersigned ten MLAs, have come to know that during the Supreme Court hearing held on November 8, 2024, the Solicitor General of India submitted that ‘CM is meeting all Kuki MLAs and trying to bring the situation down to get peace’. In this connection, we hereby categorically state that this submission is a blatant lie and tantamount to misleading the Hon’ble Supreme Court of India,” the statement said.

The Supreme Court, while hearing a petition by a Kuki organisation, asked that it submit audio tapes to substantiate its claim that the Chief Minister was instrumental in inciting and organising violence in the northeastern State.

Solicitor-General Tushar Mehta orally informed the court that the Chief Minister was meeting all the Kuki-Zo MLAs and that peace in the State had come at a huge cost.

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News Network
November 21,2024

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The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former minister of military affairs Yoav Gallant over war crimes against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

The court’s Pre-Trial Chamber I issued warrants of arrest for Netanyahu and Gallant "for crimes against humanity and war crimes committed from at least 8 October 2023 until at least 20 May 2024, the day the Prosecution filed the applications for warrants of arrest”, it confirmed in a statement Thursday.

It is the first instance in the court's 22-year history it has issued arrest warrants for Western-allied senior officials.

In its statement, the ICC's Pre-Trial Chamber I, a panel of three judges, said it has rejected appeals by Israel challenging its jurisdiction. 

The chamber said it has decided to release the arrest warrants because "conduct similar to that addressed in the warrant of arrest appears to be ongoing", referring to Israel's ongoing onslaught on Gaza.

Netanyahu and Gallant, it said, “each bear criminal responsibility” for “the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare; and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts,” as well as “intentionally directing an attack against the civilian population.”

All 124 states that signed the Rome Statute, the treaty that established the court, are now under an obligation to arrest the wanted individuals and hand them over to the ICC in the Hague. 

The court relies on the cooperation of member states to arrest and surrender suspects. The Netherlands' foreign minister quickly said his country was prepared to enforce the warrants while 93 nations earlier reiterated their support for the ICC.

Triestino Mariniello, a lawyer representing Palestinian victims at the ICC, called the warrants "a historic decision".

He noted that the court had endured "pressure and threats of sanctions" from the US government, but acted nonetheless.

As expected, the Tel Aviv regime rejected the rulings, with its security minister Itamar Ben Gvir calling the warrants “anti-Semitic through and through.”

The ICC said Israel’s acceptance of the court’s jurisdiction was not required.

Israel and its major ally, the United States, are not members of the court. 

Israel unleashed its bloody Gaza onslaught on October 7, 2023. So far, it has killed at least 43,985 Palestinians, mostly women and children, and injured 104,092 others, according to the Gaza Health Ministry.

Israel faces an ongoing South Africa-led genocide case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

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