Indian economy to contract by 7% in FY21: SBI Research

Agencies
February 10, 2021

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New Delhi, Feb 10: Pencilling in a GDP growth in third and fourth quarters, SBI Research on Wednesday revised its contraction forecast for the current fiscal year to 7 per cent.

The agency had earlier forecast a 7.4 per cent contraction in 2020-21 GDP numbers. In April-September, the economy contracted 15.7 per cent but the second half may see a surprise 2.8 per cent growth if the SBI analysis turns out to be correct.

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at State Bank of India (SBI) said of the 41 high frequency leading indicators, 51 per cent are showing acceleration which should help the economy turn around to the green from the third quarter with a 0.3 percentage point growth which is likely to surprise positively when the final numbers are out.

Read | Govt aims to raise MSMEs' share in GDP to 40%: Nitin Gadkari

In April-June, the Indian economy contracted by a record 23.9 per cent, but dramatically improved to -7.5 per cent in the second quarter. In 2019-20, the economy had grown 4 per cent and in the current fiscal year, it is on course to tank by 7 per cent.

The consensus is -7.5-8 per cent with the NSO pegging it at -7 per cent and RBI at -7.5 per cent.

“We now expect GDP decline for the full year to be around -7 per cent compared to our earlier prediction of –7.4 per cent. Also, Q4 growth will also be in positive territory at around 2.5 per cent,” Ghosh said, adding promptly that the projections are conditional to the absence of any rise in infections.

“We retain our GDP forecast for FY22 at 11 per cent (RBI has pegged it at 10.5 per cent and the economy survey at 11.5 per cent and the budget did not offer a GDP estimate), but with the caveat that 11 per cent will be the floor below which it cannot fall,” he said.

Corporate results so far also reinstate the fact that third quarter would be much better than the previous one. The corporate GVA of 1,129 companies has expanded by 14.7 per cent in October-December compared to 8.6 per cent in second quarter (of 3,758 companies ex- telecom)

On the fiscal gaps, it said 9.5 per cent may be on the higher side. Excluding off-balance sheet liabilities, fiscal deficit will be 8.7 per cent gross tax collection estimate based on revised 2020-21 numbers and collections till December show tax collections will have a degrowth of 8.9 per cent in March quarter on a sequential basis. But in 2021-22 collection may top the budget estimate of Rs 22.17 lakh crore, or 9.9 per cent of GDP.

Also Read | Wrong to term economic crisis act of God, govt policies responsible: CPI

Meanwhile, cash balances of the Centre has declined from the peak Rs 3.4 lakh crore to around Rs 2.3 lakh crore as on February 8.

Given that 85-90 per cent of such cash balances belonged to states that was invested with the Centre, it is possible that states before the closing of accounts of 2020-21 want to spend the cash rather than preserving. 

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News Network
October 1,2024

The Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah says it targeted Israel's Glilot military base and Mossad headquarters in the outskirts of Tel Aviv with salvos of Fadi-4 rockets.

Israeli reports said several settlers were injured in the rocket barrage from Lebanon on Tel Aviv.

The reports said the rocket attack from Lebanon was “the largest” since the beginning of the war.

Hezbollah earlier said it struck gatherings of Israeli troopers in artillery and rocket attacks on the northern part of the occupied Palestinian territories in retaliation for Israel’s deadly strikes on Lebanon.

In separate statements released on Tuesday, the resistance movement said the gatherings of the enemy troops were hit at the Shtula, Metulla, Avivim and Rosh Pina settlements.

The resistance also targeted the Doviv barracks with a Falaq-2 rockets as well as the gathering of Israeli forces near the settlement of Rosh Pina with a rocket barrage.

The resistance group added that it had conducted the operations in support of “steadfast Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip and … their valiant and honorable resistance, and in defense of Lebanon and its people.”

The attacks came amid a major escalation in Israel’s acts of terror and aggression in Lebanon that saw the regime assassinating Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike on southern Beirut.

The death toll from Israeli aerial assaults across Lebanon since early October 2023 has reached 1,745 with some 8,767 injured, according to Lebanese government data. In response, Hezbollah has fired barrages of rockets and drones towards Israeli targets.

The deadly exchange of fire was sparked by Israel’s genocidal war on the Gaza Strip, which has killed 41,615 Palestinians, mostly women and children, and wounded 96,359 others over the past year.

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News Network
October 3,2024

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Bengaluru: The Karnataka Food Safety and Quality Department has issued an urgent warning following the discovery of potentially cancer-causing chemicals in cakes sold by certain bakeries across the state.

Recent tests conducted by the department revealed that some cake samples, particularly those with vibrant colors, contain harmful synthetic coloring agents such as Allura Red, a substance known to pose health risks. The findings have raised concerns about the use of artificial colors in bakery products, especially given their potential link to cancer and other serious health conditions.

"We routinely test various food products, and this time, our officials noticed unusually dark-colored cakes on the market," said Srinivas K, Commissioner of Food Safety for Karnataka. "Upon testing, we found that a few cakes contained Allura Red, a synthetic dye associated with health risks."

The use of artificial colors, especially in popular cakes like red velvet and pineapple varieties, is widespread as it attracts customers, particularly children. However, many bakers prefer using natural, safer alternatives, while some opt for synthetic dyes to enhance the cake's visual appeal.

"Most bakeries use permissible, natural colors that are safe for consumption. Unfortunately, a few are resorting to synthetic dyes just to make their cakes more attractive," said a bakery owner from Electronic City, speaking anonymously.

Medical experts are warning that consuming synthetic colors can lead to numerous health issues, including asthma and allergic reactions.

"Some of these artificial dyes are carcinogenic, and prolonged exposure could have serious consequences, especially for children and young adults," cautioned Dr. Vandana G, a private medical practitioner.

While the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) confirms that only a limited number of samples tested positive for harmful colors, legal action is being taken against the violators.

"There is no need for widespread panic or halting production. We are closely monitoring the situation, and only a few bakeries were found to be non-compliant. Rest assured, appropriate legal measures are underway," assured an FSSAI official. 

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News Network
September 25,2024

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Israel began a third day of strikes in southern Lebanon on Wednesday, hours after Hezbollah confirmed the death of a senior commander in an airstrike on Beirut and a Lebanese minister said only Washington could help end the fighting.

Lebanese media reported that Israeli airstrikes had targeted several areas in the country’s south, beginning at around 5am, causing unspecified casualties.

Hezbollah meanwhile said it had launched a rocket targeting Mossad headquarters near Tel Aviv. Sirens had sounded in the Israeli city early on Wednesday, sending residents into bomb shelters, however the Israeli military later said it had intercepted the missile and no casualties or damage were reported.

Earlier on Wednesday, Hezbollah had confirmed that senior commander Ibrahim Qubaisi was among six people killed by an Israeli airstrike on an apartment block in the Lebanese capital Beirut on Tuesday, as Israel had claimed earlier. Israel said Qubaisi headed the group’s missile and rocket force.

Israel’s offensive since Monday morning has killed 569 people, including 50 children, and wounded 1,835 in Lebanon, health minister Firass Abiad told Al Jazeera Mubasher TV. Tuesday’s attacks came after Monday’s barrages racked up the highest death toll in any single day in Lebanon since the 15-year civil war that started in 1975.

Israel’s new offensive against Hezbollah has stoked fears that nearly a year of conflict between Israel and the militant Palestinian group Hamas in Gaza is escalating and could destabilise the Middle East. Britain urged its nationals to leave Lebanon and said it was moving 700 troops to Cyprus to help its citizens evacuate.

The UN security council said it would meet on Wednesday to discuss the conflict.

“Lebanon is at the brink. The people of Lebanon – the people of Israel – and the people of the world – cannot afford Lebanon to become another Gaza,” UN secretary general António Guterres said.

At the UN, which is holding its general assembly this week, US President Joe Biden made a plea for calm. “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest. Even if a situation has escalated, a diplomatic solution is still possible,” he said.

Lebanon’s foreign minister Abdallah Bou Habib criticised Biden’s address as “not strong, not promising” and said the US was the only country “that can really make a difference in the Middle East and with regard to Lebanon.” Washington is Israel’s longtime ally and biggest arms supplier.

The US “is the key … to our salvation,” he told an event in New York City hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Up to half a million people are estimated to have been displaced in Lebanon, said Bou Habib. He said Lebanon’s prime minister hoped to meet with US officials over the next two days.

In Lebanon, displaced families slept in shelters hastily set up in schools in Beirut and the coastal city of Sidon. With hotels quickly booked to capacity or rooms priced beyond the means of many families, those who did not find shelter slept in their cars, in parks or along the seaside.

Fatima Chehab, who came with her three daughters from the area of Nabatieh, said her family had been displaced twice in quick succession.

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