Indian economy to contract by 7% in FY21: SBI Research

Agencies
February 10, 2021

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New Delhi, Feb 10: Pencilling in a GDP growth in third and fourth quarters, SBI Research on Wednesday revised its contraction forecast for the current fiscal year to 7 per cent.

The agency had earlier forecast a 7.4 per cent contraction in 2020-21 GDP numbers. In April-September, the economy contracted 15.7 per cent but the second half may see a surprise 2.8 per cent growth if the SBI analysis turns out to be correct.

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at State Bank of India (SBI) said of the 41 high frequency leading indicators, 51 per cent are showing acceleration which should help the economy turn around to the green from the third quarter with a 0.3 percentage point growth which is likely to surprise positively when the final numbers are out.

Read | Govt aims to raise MSMEs' share in GDP to 40%: Nitin Gadkari

In April-June, the Indian economy contracted by a record 23.9 per cent, but dramatically improved to -7.5 per cent in the second quarter. In 2019-20, the economy had grown 4 per cent and in the current fiscal year, it is on course to tank by 7 per cent.

The consensus is -7.5-8 per cent with the NSO pegging it at -7 per cent and RBI at -7.5 per cent.

“We now expect GDP decline for the full year to be around -7 per cent compared to our earlier prediction of –7.4 per cent. Also, Q4 growth will also be in positive territory at around 2.5 per cent,” Ghosh said, adding promptly that the projections are conditional to the absence of any rise in infections.

“We retain our GDP forecast for FY22 at 11 per cent (RBI has pegged it at 10.5 per cent and the economy survey at 11.5 per cent and the budget did not offer a GDP estimate), but with the caveat that 11 per cent will be the floor below which it cannot fall,” he said.

Corporate results so far also reinstate the fact that third quarter would be much better than the previous one. The corporate GVA of 1,129 companies has expanded by 14.7 per cent in October-December compared to 8.6 per cent in second quarter (of 3,758 companies ex- telecom)

On the fiscal gaps, it said 9.5 per cent may be on the higher side. Excluding off-balance sheet liabilities, fiscal deficit will be 8.7 per cent gross tax collection estimate based on revised 2020-21 numbers and collections till December show tax collections will have a degrowth of 8.9 per cent in March quarter on a sequential basis. But in 2021-22 collection may top the budget estimate of Rs 22.17 lakh crore, or 9.9 per cent of GDP.

Also Read | Wrong to term economic crisis act of God, govt policies responsible: CPI

Meanwhile, cash balances of the Centre has declined from the peak Rs 3.4 lakh crore to around Rs 2.3 lakh crore as on February 8.

Given that 85-90 per cent of such cash balances belonged to states that was invested with the Centre, it is possible that states before the closing of accounts of 2020-21 want to spend the cash rather than preserving. 

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News Network
October 1,2024

The Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah says it targeted Israel's Glilot military base and Mossad headquarters in the outskirts of Tel Aviv with salvos of Fadi-4 rockets.

Israeli reports said several settlers were injured in the rocket barrage from Lebanon on Tel Aviv.

The reports said the rocket attack from Lebanon was “the largest” since the beginning of the war.

Hezbollah earlier said it struck gatherings of Israeli troopers in artillery and rocket attacks on the northern part of the occupied Palestinian territories in retaliation for Israel’s deadly strikes on Lebanon.

In separate statements released on Tuesday, the resistance movement said the gatherings of the enemy troops were hit at the Shtula, Metulla, Avivim and Rosh Pina settlements.

The resistance also targeted the Doviv barracks with a Falaq-2 rockets as well as the gathering of Israeli forces near the settlement of Rosh Pina with a rocket barrage.

The resistance group added that it had conducted the operations in support of “steadfast Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip and … their valiant and honorable resistance, and in defense of Lebanon and its people.”

The attacks came amid a major escalation in Israel’s acts of terror and aggression in Lebanon that saw the regime assassinating Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike on southern Beirut.

The death toll from Israeli aerial assaults across Lebanon since early October 2023 has reached 1,745 with some 8,767 injured, according to Lebanese government data. In response, Hezbollah has fired barrages of rockets and drones towards Israeli targets.

The deadly exchange of fire was sparked by Israel’s genocidal war on the Gaza Strip, which has killed 41,615 Palestinians, mostly women and children, and wounded 96,359 others over the past year.

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News Network
October 4,2024

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Moscow, Oct 4: Russia's Foreign Ministry said on Friday that a decision to remove the Taliban from a list of terrorist organisations had been "taken at the highest level", the state TASS news agency reported.

The decision needs to be followed up with various legal procedures in order to make it a reality, President Vladimir Putin's special representative on Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, was quoted as saying.

Putin said in July that Russia considered Afghanistan's Taliban movement an ally in the fight against terrorism.

Russia has been slowly building ties with the Taliban since it seized power in Afghanistan in August 2021 as U.S.-led forces withdrew after 20 years of war but the movement is still officially outlawed in Russia.

No country has formally recognised the Taliban as the country's legitimate leadership, although China and the UAE have accepted its ambassadors.

Russia added the Taliban to its list of terrorist organisations in 2003. Removing it would be an important step by Moscow towards normalising relations with Afghanistan.

The Taliban's acting foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi said in a speech in Moscow that recent decisions by Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan to remove the former insurgents from a list of banned groups was a welcome step.

"We also appreciate the positive remarks by the high-ranking officials of the Russian Federation in this regard and hope to see more effective steps soon," he said.

In separate comments on Friday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow was convinced of the need to maintain "pragmatic dialogue" with the current Afghan government.

"It is obvious that it is impossible to solve problems or even discuss an Afghan settlement without Kabul," Lavrov said.

"Moscow will continue its course on developing political, trade and economic ties with Kabul," he added, speaking at a meeting in Moscow with Muttaqi and representatives of neighbouring countries.

While he did not mention the Taliban by name, he praised the current Afghan leadership for its efforts to curb drug production and fight Islamic State, which is outlawed in Russia.

Muttaqi said that countries in the region should cooperate against the Islamic State, which he said had established training centres outside Afghanistan.

Lavrov said the United States should return confiscated assets to Afghanistan and the West should acknowledge responsibility for the post-conflict reconstruction of the country.

Lavrov also called for an increase in humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, and said Russia would keep sending it food and essential goods.

Russia has a troubled history in Afghanistan, where the Soviet army invaded in 1979 to support a pro-Moscow government but withdrew 10 years later after sustaining heavy casualties at the hands of mujahideen fighters.

Russia and its post-Soviet neighbours have suffered recurrent attacks from Islamist militant groups linked to Afghanistan - most recently in March, when 145 people were killed in an attack claimed by Islamic State at a concert hall near Moscow.

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News Network
September 28,2024

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The Lebanese Hezbollah resistance movement has confirmed the assassination of its secretary general Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in massive Israeli airstrikes targeting residential buildings in southern Beirut on Friday.

“His Eminence, the Master of Resistance, the righteous servant, has joined his Lord and His pleasure as a great martyr — an outstanding, courageous, wise, and insightful leader — joining the ranks of the radiant martyrs of Karbala in the divine journey of faith, following in the footsteps of the prophets and martyr imams,” Hezbollah said in a statement on Saturday afternoon.

“The leadership of Hezbollah vows to the highest, most sacred, and dearest martyr in our journey, filled with sacrifices and martyrs, to continue its struggle against the enemy, supporting Gaza and Palestine, and defending Lebanon and its steadfast, honorable people,” it added.

Since Friday afternoon, Israeli warplanes have conducted over 30 airstrikes, targeting residential buildings in Burj al-Barajneh, Kafaat, Choueifat, Hadath, al-Laylaki, and Mreijeh, with local media reporting upwards of 300 casualties as a result of the aggression.

Footage broadcast by al-Manar television channel from the crowded area of Beirut’s Dahiyeh shows flattened buildings, streets filled with rubble and clouds of smoke and dust above the area.

Martyrs’ Square, Beirut’s central public area, was crowded with exhausted and anxious families sheltering outdoors.

The recent attacks are part of the Israeli regime’s intensified assault on Lebanon, which has become more deadly this week, resulting in over 700 deaths nationwide since Monday.

The new attacks came less than a week after the Tel Aviv regime killed 38 people, including three children and seven women as well as senior Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil in an attack on a residential building in a southern Beirut suburb.

Earlier on Saturday, Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei said the brutal attacks by the “rabid Zionist dog” on Lebanon revealed the shortsightedness and foolish policies of Israeli officials, calling on all Muslims to unite behind Lebanese people and Hezbollah.

“The Zionist criminals need to know that they are far too weak to be able to inflict any significant damage on the solid structure of Lebanon’s Hezbollah. All the resistance forces in the region stand with and support Hezbollah,” the Leader said in a statement on Saturday.

“The Lebanese have not forgotten that there was a time when the soldiers of the occupying regime were advancing toward Beirut, and Hezbollah stopped them, and made Lebanon proud. Today too, by the grace and power of God, Lebanon will make the transgressing, malicious enemy regret its actions,” Ayatollah Khamenei noted. 

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