Indian economy to contract by 7% in FY21: SBI Research

Agencies
February 10, 2021

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New Delhi, Feb 10: Pencilling in a GDP growth in third and fourth quarters, SBI Research on Wednesday revised its contraction forecast for the current fiscal year to 7 per cent.

The agency had earlier forecast a 7.4 per cent contraction in 2020-21 GDP numbers. In April-September, the economy contracted 15.7 per cent but the second half may see a surprise 2.8 per cent growth if the SBI analysis turns out to be correct.

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at State Bank of India (SBI) said of the 41 high frequency leading indicators, 51 per cent are showing acceleration which should help the economy turn around to the green from the third quarter with a 0.3 percentage point growth which is likely to surprise positively when the final numbers are out.

Read | Govt aims to raise MSMEs' share in GDP to 40%: Nitin Gadkari

In April-June, the Indian economy contracted by a record 23.9 per cent, but dramatically improved to -7.5 per cent in the second quarter. In 2019-20, the economy had grown 4 per cent and in the current fiscal year, it is on course to tank by 7 per cent.

The consensus is -7.5-8 per cent with the NSO pegging it at -7 per cent and RBI at -7.5 per cent.

“We now expect GDP decline for the full year to be around -7 per cent compared to our earlier prediction of –7.4 per cent. Also, Q4 growth will also be in positive territory at around 2.5 per cent,” Ghosh said, adding promptly that the projections are conditional to the absence of any rise in infections.

“We retain our GDP forecast for FY22 at 11 per cent (RBI has pegged it at 10.5 per cent and the economy survey at 11.5 per cent and the budget did not offer a GDP estimate), but with the caveat that 11 per cent will be the floor below which it cannot fall,” he said.

Corporate results so far also reinstate the fact that third quarter would be much better than the previous one. The corporate GVA of 1,129 companies has expanded by 14.7 per cent in October-December compared to 8.6 per cent in second quarter (of 3,758 companies ex- telecom)

On the fiscal gaps, it said 9.5 per cent may be on the higher side. Excluding off-balance sheet liabilities, fiscal deficit will be 8.7 per cent gross tax collection estimate based on revised 2020-21 numbers and collections till December show tax collections will have a degrowth of 8.9 per cent in March quarter on a sequential basis. But in 2021-22 collection may top the budget estimate of Rs 22.17 lakh crore, or 9.9 per cent of GDP.

Also Read | Wrong to term economic crisis act of God, govt policies responsible: CPI

Meanwhile, cash balances of the Centre has declined from the peak Rs 3.4 lakh crore to around Rs 2.3 lakh crore as on February 8.

Given that 85-90 per cent of such cash balances belonged to states that was invested with the Centre, it is possible that states before the closing of accounts of 2020-21 want to spend the cash rather than preserving. 

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News Network
September 25,2024

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Hezbollah has launched a ballistic missile at Tel Aviv for the first time, triggering sirens in the city and elsewhere including Netanya, the Lebanese resistance group says. 

Warning sirens sounded in Israel’s economic capital Tel Aviv as a single surface-to-surface missile was intercepted by air defense systems after it was detected crossing from Lebanon, the Israeli military said.

There were no reports of damage or casualties and the military said there was no change to civil defense instructions for central Israel.

The Israeli military said that for the "first time ever" a missile fired by Hezbollah reached the Tel Aviv area. "It is the first time ever a Hezbollah missile reached Tel Aviv area."

Hezbollah and Israel have been exchanging deadly fire since early October last year, shortly after the regime launched a genocidal war against the Gaza Strip following a surprise operation by Hamas.

Earlier, Hezbollah targeted the Israeli Ilaniya military base at the northern side of the occupied territories with a salvo of Fadi-1 rockets. 

The base is reportedly affiliated with the 146th Reserve Division of the Israeli military, which is part of the Northern Command.

The group announced in a brief statement that the operation was carried out in defense of Lebanon and its people. 

Hezbollah also said it targeted a military base near Safad twice with salvos of rockets.

The group stated that it targeted “the Dado base near Safad – the headquarters of the Israeli military’s Northern Command – with a total of 90 rockets in defense of Lebanon and its people.”

Hezbollah said in a separate statement that it unleashed a squadron of attack drones on the headquarters of the Israeli army’s Special Naval Task Force at the Alit Base.

The group said the attack on the Alit base, south of the major port city of Haifa, targeted “the locations of [Israeli] officers and soldiers” and achieved direct hits.

The Lebanese resistance movement has vowed to keep up its retaliatory attacks as long as the Israeli regime continues its Gaza war, which has so far killed at least 41,467 Palestinians, mostly women and children.

Hezbollah officials have repeatedly said they do not want a war with Israel while stressing that they are prepared in case it occurs.

Two Israeli wars waged against Lebanon in 2000 and 2006 were met with strong resistance from Hezbollah, resulting in the retreat of the regime in both conflicts.

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News Network
October 3,2024

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In a relief to Sadhguru, the Supreme Court on Thursday stayed the police action against Isha Foundation and transferred the matter from the Madras High Court to the top court, PTI reported.

Sadhguru's Isha Foundation today moved the Supreme Court against a Madras High Court order to submit details of all criminal cases against it, ANI reported.

Isha Foundation sought a stay on Madras High Court order, told Supreme Court that 500 policemen raided it, probing every corner, PTI reported.

Senior advocate Mukul Rohatgi appearing for Isha Foundation sought an urgent hearing today.

A bench of CJI DY Chandrachud said that you can't let Police or Army enter a place like this, the agency reported.

One of the women appeared online and said she was staying at the Isha Yoga Centre willingly. The woman told the Supreme Court that both of the sisters are at the Ashram out of their own will and this harassment from their father's side has been continuing for the last eight years.

The top court said it would interact with the two women online in their chambers right away.

Tamil Nadu Police on Tuesday launched an inquiry against Isha Foundation run by yoga guru Jaggi Vasudev over several allegations, a day after the Madras High Court sought a status report on all criminal cases registered against the organisation.

A multi-departmental team led by K Karthikeyan, Coimbatore Rural District Superintendent of Police, and consisting of officials from the Social Welfare Department and the District Child Protection Committee launched the inquiry at the sprawling premises of Isha Foundation in Thondamuthur.

 “We have launched an inquiry based on the court order,” a senior police official told DH from Coimbatore. The police team sought details of cases registered against the foundation in the past and inquired with several inmates about their condition in the ashram.

The inquiry came a day after the court ordered the police to conduct an enquiry and file a report on a habeas corpus petition filed by retired professor S Kamaraj, who alleged that his two daughters were being held captive at the ashram.

When contacted, a spokesperson for Isha Foundation admitted that a team led by the district SP was conducting an inquiry at the premises and that there were no searches. “They are enquiring with residents and volunteers, understanding the lifestyle, understanding how they come in and stay etc,” the spokesperson said.

The foundation also said the two women have clearly stated that they are staying in Isha Yoga Centre out of their own volition. “Now that the matter is seized by the court, we hope truth will prevail and there is an end to all the unnecessary controversies created,” the foundation said.

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News Network
October 1,2024

The Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah says it targeted Israel's Glilot military base and Mossad headquarters in the outskirts of Tel Aviv with salvos of Fadi-4 rockets.

Israeli reports said several settlers were injured in the rocket barrage from Lebanon on Tel Aviv.

The reports said the rocket attack from Lebanon was “the largest” since the beginning of the war.

Hezbollah earlier said it struck gatherings of Israeli troopers in artillery and rocket attacks on the northern part of the occupied Palestinian territories in retaliation for Israel’s deadly strikes on Lebanon.

In separate statements released on Tuesday, the resistance movement said the gatherings of the enemy troops were hit at the Shtula, Metulla, Avivim and Rosh Pina settlements.

The resistance also targeted the Doviv barracks with a Falaq-2 rockets as well as the gathering of Israeli forces near the settlement of Rosh Pina with a rocket barrage.

The resistance group added that it had conducted the operations in support of “steadfast Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip and … their valiant and honorable resistance, and in defense of Lebanon and its people.”

The attacks came amid a major escalation in Israel’s acts of terror and aggression in Lebanon that saw the regime assassinating Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike on southern Beirut.

The death toll from Israeli aerial assaults across Lebanon since early October 2023 has reached 1,745 with some 8,767 injured, according to Lebanese government data. In response, Hezbollah has fired barrages of rockets and drones towards Israeli targets.

The deadly exchange of fire was sparked by Israel’s genocidal war on the Gaza Strip, which has killed 41,615 Palestinians, mostly women and children, and wounded 96,359 others over the past year.

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