Indian economy not recovering, may contract 25% in current fiscal: Economist Arun Kumar

News Network
January 17, 2021

The Indian economy is not recovering as fast as the government claims and the country's economy may contract 25 per cent in the current financial year, noted economist Arun Kumar said on Sunday.

Kumar further said that due to a big decline in the GDP during the current financial year, the budget estimates have gone completely out of gear and, therefore, there is a need to correct the Budget.

"India's economic growth is not recovering as fast as the government is showing because the unorganised sector has not started recovering and some major components of the services sector have not recovered.

"My analysis shows that the rate of growth will be (-)25 per cent in the current financial year because during lockdown (during April-May), only essential production was taking place and even in agriculture, there was no growth," he told PTI in an interview.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected the Indian economy to contract 7.5 per cent in the current financial year, while the National Statistical Office (NSO) estimates a contraction of 7.7 per cent.

Also, according to the NSO, the Indian economy contracted by 23.9 per cent during the April-June 2020 quarter and recovered faster than expected in the July-September 2020 quarter as a pick-up in manufacturing helped GDP clock a lower contraction of 7.5 per cent.

Kumar, a former professor of economics at JNU, said the government's own document that provided April-June and July-September quarters GDP (gross domestic product) figures said there will be a revision in the data later on.

He predicted that India's fiscal deficit will be higher than it was last year and the state's fiscal deficit will also be much higher.

"Disinvestment revenue will also be short. Tax and non-tax revenues will be short," Kumar said.

He said India's economic recovery will depend on several factors including how quickly vaccination can be done, how quickly people can go back to their work.

"We are not going back to the 2019 level of output in 2021. Maybe in 2022, after the vaccination is done, we will recover back to the 2019 level of output in 2022," Kumar said.

He added that the growth rate in the coming years will be good because of low base effect, but the output will be less than 2019.

Asked whether the government should relax the fiscal deficit target in the upcoming Budget, Kumar said, "It has been argued since July that the government should allow the fiscal deficit to rise and spend more and give money to the unorganised sector and in rural areas."

On India recently imposing fresh restrictions on foreign direct investment (FDI) from countries that share land border with India, he said, "It is a knee-jerk reaction". If you look at the past three-four years, all the start-ups had big investments from China, Kumar added.

Stressing that like China, India should also invest more on research and development, Kumar said, "We are now in a bad situation where we have to do knee-jerk reactions like raising tariffs, withdrawing from the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), and having new FDI rules, to stop investment from China."

He pointed out that when investments in India are lacking, restricting investments from outside is going to put us in further trouble.
 

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News Network
November 17,2024

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An Israeli airstrike on the office of Syria’s Baath party in Lebanon’s capital Beirut has killed the Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah's Media Relations Officer, Mohammad Afif, reports say.

Lebanon's National News Agency (NNA) reported that the Israeli raid struck the Ba'ath party’s building in central Beirut district of Ras Al-Naba'a on Sunday, adding that the strike was an attempt to assassinate the leader of the resistance media front.

According to Baath Secretary-General Ali Hijazi, Afif was having a meeting in the Baath Party headquarters when Israel carried out the attack.

"Afif did not fight with weapons and did not lead a military unit in Hezbollah. Rather, he led a media unit," he said.

Reuters, Sky News, Al Jazeera and a number of Henrew-language media reported that Afif was killed in the Israeli strike.

However, Hezbollah has not yet confirmed Afif’s death or whether he was present at the site or not.

Earlier, the Lebanese Health Ministry said at least one person was killed and three others injured after an Israeli strike targeted a central district in Beirut.

Lebanon's al-Mayadeen television network reported that five people were killed in the attack.

The latest development came after Afif said Hezbollah was behind the Caesarea operation and targeting Netanyahu’s home during a speech at the Ghobeiry area in the southern suburbs of Beirut on October 22.

This was the second assassination attempt on Afif in the last two months, after he survived an attack on the Hezbollah media relations office several weeks ago.

Israel launched a ground assault and massive air campaign against Lebanon in late September after a year of exchanging fire across the Lebanese border in parallel with the Gaza war.

At least 3,287 people have been killed in Israeli strikes in Lebanon over the past year, with the vast majority in the past seven weeks. Another 14,222 have been wounded, mostly women and children.

In response to the ongoing aggression, the Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah has been staging hundreds of retaliatory strikes against the occupied Palestinian territories and the Israeli forces trying to advance on southern Lebanese areas.

The movement has vowed to sustain its strikes until the regime ends the escalation.

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News Network
November 26,2024

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Mangaluru: The coastal districts of Dakshina Kannada and Udupi are witnessing a fascinating weather pattern, with chilly early mornings giving way to dry, sweltering afternoons. Over the past two days, dense fog blanketed the rural landscapes, while urban centers like Mangaluru felt the stark contrast of brisk mornings and peak afternoon heat.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) noted that in rural areas, the morning chill caused temperatures to dip by one to two degrees Celsius below the seasonal norm, intensifying the fog. Monday saw Mangaluru recording a maximum temperature of 33.3°C and a minimum of 22.6°C, reflective of the sharp day-night variation.

While mornings painted a serene picture with mist-covered trees and a cool ambiance, the afternoons proved relentless, with temperatures soaring between 11 am and 3 pm, offering little respite. Currently, there are no signs of rainfall, with forecasts predicting the continuation of this dual weather pattern for the coming days.

Local residents have mixed feelings about this weather trend. Farmers in rural areas appreciate the cool mornings that ease early chores but express concerns over the dry afternoons, which may affect crop irrigation if the dry spell prolongs. In contrast, urban dwellers are enjoying the foggy mornings but brace for the scorching afternoons.

Meteorologists attribute the sudden chill to shifts in atmospheric pressure along the coast, a precursor to possible weather transitions in December. Whether this pattern persists or leads to unexpected changes remains to be seen, but the twin districts are clearly caught in nature's dramatic play of contrasts.

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News Network
November 21,2024

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Shares of Adani Group companies lost about $28 billion in market value in morning trade on Thursday after US prosecutors charged the billionaire chairman of the Indian conglomerate in an alleged bribery and fraud scheme.

Gautam Adani's flagship company Adani Enterprises tumbled 23 per cent, while Adani Ports, Adani Total Gas, Adani Green, Adani Power, Adani Wilmar and Adani Energy Solutions, ACC , Ambuja Cements and NDTV fell between 20 per cent and 90 per cent.

Adani group's 10 listed stocks had a total market capitalisation of about $141 billion at 0534 GMT, compared to $169.08 billion on Tuesday.

US authorities said Adani and seven other defendants, including his nephew Sagar Adani, agreed to pay about $265 million in bribes to Indian government officials to obtain contracts expected to yield $2 billion of profit over 20 years, and develop India's largest solar power plant project.

Adani Green in a statement on Thursday said the US Justice Department had issued a criminal indictment against board members Gautam Adani and Sagar Adani and the Securities and Exchange Commission had issued a civil complaint against them.

The US Justice Department also included Adani Green board member Vneet Jaain in the criminal indictment, it said.

Adani Green's units had decided not to proceed with the proposed US dollar denominated bond offerings due to developments, it added.

"Investors will shy away from Adani Group stocks ... and that's what this sharp selling is signifying," said Saurabh Jain, assistant vice president of retail equities research at SMC Global Securities.

"This could hurt the credibility of the group and maybe borrowing costs will rise," he said.

The indictment comes nearly two years after US shortseller Hindenburg Research alleged that Adani had improperly used tax havens and was involved in stock manipulation, allegations the conglomerate denied.

Also in early Asian trading on Thursday, Adani dollar bonds slumped, with prices down 3c-5c on bonds for Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone. The falls were the largest since the Adani Group came under a short-seller attack in February 2023.

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