Indian economy not recovering, may contract 25% in current fiscal: Economist Arun Kumar

News Network
January 17, 2021

The Indian economy is not recovering as fast as the government claims and the country's economy may contract 25 per cent in the current financial year, noted economist Arun Kumar said on Sunday.

Kumar further said that due to a big decline in the GDP during the current financial year, the budget estimates have gone completely out of gear and, therefore, there is a need to correct the Budget.

"India's economic growth is not recovering as fast as the government is showing because the unorganised sector has not started recovering and some major components of the services sector have not recovered.

"My analysis shows that the rate of growth will be (-)25 per cent in the current financial year because during lockdown (during April-May), only essential production was taking place and even in agriculture, there was no growth," he told PTI in an interview.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected the Indian economy to contract 7.5 per cent in the current financial year, while the National Statistical Office (NSO) estimates a contraction of 7.7 per cent.

Also, according to the NSO, the Indian economy contracted by 23.9 per cent during the April-June 2020 quarter and recovered faster than expected in the July-September 2020 quarter as a pick-up in manufacturing helped GDP clock a lower contraction of 7.5 per cent.

Kumar, a former professor of economics at JNU, said the government's own document that provided April-June and July-September quarters GDP (gross domestic product) figures said there will be a revision in the data later on.

He predicted that India's fiscal deficit will be higher than it was last year and the state's fiscal deficit will also be much higher.

"Disinvestment revenue will also be short. Tax and non-tax revenues will be short," Kumar said.

He said India's economic recovery will depend on several factors including how quickly vaccination can be done, how quickly people can go back to their work.

"We are not going back to the 2019 level of output in 2021. Maybe in 2022, after the vaccination is done, we will recover back to the 2019 level of output in 2022," Kumar said.

He added that the growth rate in the coming years will be good because of low base effect, but the output will be less than 2019.

Asked whether the government should relax the fiscal deficit target in the upcoming Budget, Kumar said, "It has been argued since July that the government should allow the fiscal deficit to rise and spend more and give money to the unorganised sector and in rural areas."

On India recently imposing fresh restrictions on foreign direct investment (FDI) from countries that share land border with India, he said, "It is a knee-jerk reaction". If you look at the past three-four years, all the start-ups had big investments from China, Kumar added.

Stressing that like China, India should also invest more on research and development, Kumar said, "We are now in a bad situation where we have to do knee-jerk reactions like raising tariffs, withdrawing from the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), and having new FDI rules, to stop investment from China."

He pointed out that when investments in India are lacking, restricting investments from outside is going to put us in further trouble.
 

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.
News Network
November 19,2024

pool_0.jpg

In the wake of the tragic drowning of three students at a resort near Ullal on the outskirts of Mangaluru city, the tourism department in Dakshina Kannada is set to implement comprehensive safety guidelines for properties with swimming pools or beach access. This initiative aims to ensure guest safety and prevent similar incidents in the future.

New Safety Mandates for Resorts and Homestays

Rashmi S.R., deputy director (in-charge) of the tourism department, announced, “We will instruct all homestays and resorts to enforce precautionary measures, especially those with pools or direct beach access. Properties must ensure 24/7 supervision, particularly during guest hours. This tragedy highlights the importance of having trained personnel on-site.”

Key Safety Guidelines

The district, home to around 150 homestays and 130 resorts, will see the following measures enforced:

  • Clearly displaying pool depths.
  • Installing adequate safety equipment, such as life buoys.
  • Employing trained lifeguards at all times.
  • Establishing clear pool operating hours.
  • Reviewing and implementing standard operating procedures (SOPs) for pool and beach usage.

Booming Beach Tourism Calls for Vigilance

Manohar Shetty, president of the Association for Coastal Tourism (ACT), Udupi, highlighted the growing popularity of beachside resorts, particularly during peak seasons. Properties in Udupi, often fully booked with tourists from Bengaluru, Mysuru, Kodagu, and Shivamogga, face increasing pressure to maintain safety standards.

Udupi district boasts 22 beachside commercial properties catering to this rising demand.

Shetty emphasized, “Authorities must scrutinize safety measures and carefully evaluate guidelines before issuing new resort licenses. Panchayats should rely on the Karnataka Town and Country Planning Act when handling such cases.”

Long-Term Solutions for Water Safety

Recognizing the need for a cultural shift in water safety, Shetty proposed integrating swimming lessons into school curricula. This move would not only equip students with essential skills but also encourage safe participation in water-based activities.

A Safer Tomorrow for Coastal Tourism

As the tourism sector thrives, Mangaluru’s proactive approach underscores its commitment to visitor safety. The tragic incident serves as a wake-up call, propelling the industry towards stricter regulations and better preparedness, ensuring that coastal vacations remain both enjoyable and safe.

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.
News Network
November 25,2024

Udupi: Six junior artists from the prequel of Kannada blockbuster film ‘Kantara’ were injured, when the bus they were travelling in overturned in the district, police said on Monday.

According to police, the accident occurred near Jadkal on Sunday night when the mini-bus carrying the crew of the film overturned.

“The incident happened while they were returning to Kollur after completing the shoot at Mudoor in Jadkal. The mini-bus was carrying 20 junior artistes when it met with the accident,” a police officer said.

The injured were rushed to hospitals in Jadkal and Kundapur for treatment, they said.

The Kollur police are investigating the matter.

"The news making rounds is completely false. The Kantara: Chapter 1 team began shooting at 06:00 AM today, and everything is proceeding as normal. A minor accident occurred 20 kilometres away from the shooting location, involving a local bus carrying some members of the Kantara team. However, no injuries were reported," a source close to the production said.

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.
News Network
November 13,2024

buldozerjustice.jpg

New Delhi: The Supreme Court took a firm stance on ‘bulldozer justice’ today, affirming that the Executive cannot bypass the Judiciary and that the legal process must not prejudge the guilt of an accused. In a significant judgment, the bench led by Justices BR Gavai and KV Viswanathan set new guidelines for demolition practices, responding to petitions challenging the controversial bulldozer actions taken against individuals accused of crimes.

The rise of this practice, termed 'bulldozer justice,' has seen authorities in various states demolish what they claim to be illegal structures belonging to accused individuals. However, multiple petitions questioned the legality and fairness of this approach, bringing the matter before the court.

Justice Gavai highlighted that owning a home is a cherished goal for many families, and an essential question was whether the Executive should have the authority to strip individuals of their shelter. “In a democracy, the rule of law protects citizens from arbitrary actions by the state. The criminal justice system must not assume guilt,” stated the bench, underscoring that due process is a fundamental right under the Constitution.

On the principle of separation of powers, the bench reinforced that the Judiciary alone holds adjudicatory powers and that the Executive cannot overstep these boundaries. Justice Gavai remarked, “When the state demolishes a home purely because its resident is accused of a crime, it violates the doctrine of separation of powers.”

The court issued a strong warning about accountability, stating that public officials who misuse their power or act arbitrarily must face consequences. Justice Gavai observed that selectively demolishing one property while ignoring similar cases suggests that the aim might be to penalize rather than enforce legality. “For most citizens, a house is the product of years of labor and dreams. Taking it away must be an action of last resort, thoroughly justified,” he said.

In its directives under Article 142 of the Constitution, the Supreme Court established new demolition guidelines. These include:

Mandatory Show-Cause Notice: No demolition should occur without first issuing a show-cause notice. The person served has a minimum of 15 days or the duration stated in local laws to respond.

Transparency of Notice Content: The notice must include specifics about the alleged unauthorized construction, the nature of the violation, and the rationale for demolition.

Hearing and Final Order: Authorities are required to hear the response of the affected individual before issuing a final order. The homeowner will have 15 days to address the issue, with demolition proceeding only if no stay order is obtained from an appellate authority.

Contempt Proceedings: Any breach of these guidelines would lead to contempt proceedings. Officials who disregard these norms will be personally accountable for restitution, with costs deducted from their salaries.

Additionally, the court mandated that all municipal bodies establish digital portals within three months, displaying show-cause notices and final orders on unauthorized structures to ensure public transparency and accountability.

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.