Indian economy not recovering, may contract 25% in current fiscal: Economist Arun Kumar

News Network
January 17, 2021

The Indian economy is not recovering as fast as the government claims and the country's economy may contract 25 per cent in the current financial year, noted economist Arun Kumar said on Sunday.

Kumar further said that due to a big decline in the GDP during the current financial year, the budget estimates have gone completely out of gear and, therefore, there is a need to correct the Budget.

"India's economic growth is not recovering as fast as the government is showing because the unorganised sector has not started recovering and some major components of the services sector have not recovered.

"My analysis shows that the rate of growth will be (-)25 per cent in the current financial year because during lockdown (during April-May), only essential production was taking place and even in agriculture, there was no growth," he told PTI in an interview.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected the Indian economy to contract 7.5 per cent in the current financial year, while the National Statistical Office (NSO) estimates a contraction of 7.7 per cent.

Also, according to the NSO, the Indian economy contracted by 23.9 per cent during the April-June 2020 quarter and recovered faster than expected in the July-September 2020 quarter as a pick-up in manufacturing helped GDP clock a lower contraction of 7.5 per cent.

Kumar, a former professor of economics at JNU, said the government's own document that provided April-June and July-September quarters GDP (gross domestic product) figures said there will be a revision in the data later on.

He predicted that India's fiscal deficit will be higher than it was last year and the state's fiscal deficit will also be much higher.

"Disinvestment revenue will also be short. Tax and non-tax revenues will be short," Kumar said.

He said India's economic recovery will depend on several factors including how quickly vaccination can be done, how quickly people can go back to their work.

"We are not going back to the 2019 level of output in 2021. Maybe in 2022, after the vaccination is done, we will recover back to the 2019 level of output in 2022," Kumar said.

He added that the growth rate in the coming years will be good because of low base effect, but the output will be less than 2019.

Asked whether the government should relax the fiscal deficit target in the upcoming Budget, Kumar said, "It has been argued since July that the government should allow the fiscal deficit to rise and spend more and give money to the unorganised sector and in rural areas."

On India recently imposing fresh restrictions on foreign direct investment (FDI) from countries that share land border with India, he said, "It is a knee-jerk reaction". If you look at the past three-four years, all the start-ups had big investments from China, Kumar added.

Stressing that like China, India should also invest more on research and development, Kumar said, "We are now in a bad situation where we have to do knee-jerk reactions like raising tariffs, withdrawing from the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), and having new FDI rules, to stop investment from China."

He pointed out that when investments in India are lacking, restricting investments from outside is going to put us in further trouble.
 

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News Network
November 15,2024

Udupi: The Tourism Department is planning a major eco-friendly development initiative for Kamini Island, located near the Blue Flag-certified Padubidri End Point beach, aiming to attract more visitors while maintaining environmental sustainability.

Assistant Director Kumar CU emphasized that, given the island’s proximity to the Blue Flag beach, all development efforts will center around eco-friendly practices. “We are looking to enhance the Kamini River and the island’s surroundings by adding a hanging bridge, nature trails, and eco-friendly food courts offering traditional cuisine. Visitors will also be able to reach the island by pedal boats or kayaking,” he said.

The development project is estimated to cost between Rs 3 crore and Rs 4 crore. Meanwhile, the Blue Flag beach, Padubidri, continues to see a steady flow of visitors. Vijay Shetty, manager of the beach, shared that tenders for food courts and water sports have been awarded to private parties. Recently, three new coracles have been introduced, which are proving to be a hit with visitors. Additionally, three more shelters are expected to be ready by November 20.

Shetty mentioned that the beach can now accommodate between 2,500 and 3,000 visitors daily, although footfall remains lower than other district beaches due to user fees and activity restrictions. “Initially, most visitors were from Mangaluru, but now nearly 40% come from other districts, showing a shift in the visitor demographics,” Shetty noted.

To further boost tourism and promote a healthy lifestyle, a Beach Carnival is set to take place on November 23-24, featuring the National Sea Swimming Championship and a sea marathon in collaboration with the Padubidri JCI, which is celebrating its golden jubilee. Cultural events will be held at the main beach, with some sports events taking place at the Blue Flag beach. Emphasis will be placed on making all activities environmentally friendly.

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News Network
November 14,2024

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Bengaluru: The Prime Minister Narendra Modi led union government has requested the Karnataka High Court to direct the Mandya district administration and the state government to clear a madrasa operating within the premises of the historic Jama Masjid in Srirangapatna.

The Waqf Board, opposing this move, has claimed the mosque as its property and defended the right to conduct madrasa activities there.

The matter was brought before a division bench headed by Chief Justice N V Anjaria following a public interest litigation filed by a person named Abhishek Gowda from Kabbalu village in Kanakapura taluk. The petition alleged “unauthorised madrasa activities” within the mosque.

Representing the Central government, Additional Solicitor General of India for High Court of Karnataka, K Arvind Kamath argued that the Jama Masjid was designated as a protected monument in 1951, yet unauthorised madrasa operations continue there.

He noted that concerns over potential law and order issues have so far prevented any intervention. Kamath urged the court to direct the Mandya district administration to take action and vacate the madrasa from the mosque.

In defence, lawyers for the state government and the Waqf Board contested this request, stating that the Waqf Board had been recognised as the owner of the property since 1963 and, thus, conducting madrasa activities there is lawful.

After hearing both sides, the bench adjourned the case for further arguments, scheduling the next hearing for November 20.

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News Network
November 14,2024

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The UN special rapporteur for Palestine has slammed Israel’s parliament for passing a law authorizing the detention of Palestinian children, who are “tormented often beyond the breaking point” in Israeli custody.

Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur on the rights situation in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, in a Thursday post on X, characterized the experiences of Palestinian minors in Israeli detention as extreme and often inhumane.

The UN expert highlighted the grave impact of this policy, noting that up to 700 Palestinian minors are taken into custody each year, a practice she described as part of an unlawful occupation that views these children as potential threats.

Albanese said Palestinian minors in Israeli custody are “tormented often beyond the breaking point” and that “generations of Palestinians will carry the scars and trauma from the Israeli mass incarceration system.”

She further criticized the international community for its inaction, suggesting that ongoing diplomatic efforts, which often rely on the idea of resuming negotiations for peace, have contributed to normalizing such human rights violations against Palestinian children and the broader population.

The comments by Albanese came in response to Israel’s parliament (Knesset) passing a law on November 7 that authorizes the detention of Palestinian children under the age of 14 for “terrorism or terrorist activities.”

Under the legislation, a temporary five-year measure, once the individuals turn 14, they will be transferred to adult prison to continue serving their sentences.

Additionally, the law allows for a three-year clause that enables courts to incarcerate minors in adult prisons for up to 10 days if they are considered dangerous. Courts have the authority to extend this duration if necessary, according to the Knesset.

The legislation underscores a shift in the treatment of minors and raises alarms among human rights advocates regarding the legal and ethical ramifications of detaining children and the conditions under which they may be held.

Thousands of Palestinians, including hundreds of children and women, are currently in Israeli jails—around one-third without charge or trial. Also, an unknown number are arbitrarily held following a wave of arrests in the wake of the regime's genocidal war on Gaza.

Since the onset of the Gaza war, the Israeli regime, under the supervision of extremist minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, has turned prisons and detention centers into “death chambers,” the ministry of detainees and ex-detainees’ affairs in Gaza says.

Violence, extreme hunger, humiliation, and other forms of abuse of Palestinian prisoners have been normalized across Israel’s jail system, reports indicate.

Over 270 Palestinian minors are being detained by Israeli authorities, in violation of UN resolutions and international treaties that forbid the incarceration of children, as reported by Palestinian rights organizations.

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