Indian economy not recovering, may contract 25% in current fiscal: Economist Arun Kumar

News Network
January 17, 2021

The Indian economy is not recovering as fast as the government claims and the country's economy may contract 25 per cent in the current financial year, noted economist Arun Kumar said on Sunday.

Kumar further said that due to a big decline in the GDP during the current financial year, the budget estimates have gone completely out of gear and, therefore, there is a need to correct the Budget.

"India's economic growth is not recovering as fast as the government is showing because the unorganised sector has not started recovering and some major components of the services sector have not recovered.

"My analysis shows that the rate of growth will be (-)25 per cent in the current financial year because during lockdown (during April-May), only essential production was taking place and even in agriculture, there was no growth," he told PTI in an interview.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected the Indian economy to contract 7.5 per cent in the current financial year, while the National Statistical Office (NSO) estimates a contraction of 7.7 per cent.

Also, according to the NSO, the Indian economy contracted by 23.9 per cent during the April-June 2020 quarter and recovered faster than expected in the July-September 2020 quarter as a pick-up in manufacturing helped GDP clock a lower contraction of 7.5 per cent.

Kumar, a former professor of economics at JNU, said the government's own document that provided April-June and July-September quarters GDP (gross domestic product) figures said there will be a revision in the data later on.

He predicted that India's fiscal deficit will be higher than it was last year and the state's fiscal deficit will also be much higher.

"Disinvestment revenue will also be short. Tax and non-tax revenues will be short," Kumar said.

He said India's economic recovery will depend on several factors including how quickly vaccination can be done, how quickly people can go back to their work.

"We are not going back to the 2019 level of output in 2021. Maybe in 2022, after the vaccination is done, we will recover back to the 2019 level of output in 2022," Kumar said.

He added that the growth rate in the coming years will be good because of low base effect, but the output will be less than 2019.

Asked whether the government should relax the fiscal deficit target in the upcoming Budget, Kumar said, "It has been argued since July that the government should allow the fiscal deficit to rise and spend more and give money to the unorganised sector and in rural areas."

On India recently imposing fresh restrictions on foreign direct investment (FDI) from countries that share land border with India, he said, "It is a knee-jerk reaction". If you look at the past three-four years, all the start-ups had big investments from China, Kumar added.

Stressing that like China, India should also invest more on research and development, Kumar said, "We are now in a bad situation where we have to do knee-jerk reactions like raising tariffs, withdrawing from the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), and having new FDI rules, to stop investment from China."

He pointed out that when investments in India are lacking, restricting investments from outside is going to put us in further trouble.
 

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News Network
November 21,2024

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After the US prosecutors charged Gautam Adani with bribery and fraud, Congress reiterated its call for a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) probe into the transactions of the Adani group, and hit out at Prime Minister Narendra Modi, alleging an "internal nexus" between him and "his favourite businessman."

Senior Congress leader Jairam Ramesh said the indictment of Gautam Adani and others by the US Securities and Exchange Commission validates his party’s call for a Joint Parliamentary Committee investigation.

The Congress has been pushing for the probe since January 2023, raising concerns over alleged irregularities involving Adani and his business dealings, said Ramesh.

Ramesh referred to the party’s “Hum Adani ke Hain” series, where 100 questions were raised about the alleged scams and the links between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Gautam Adani.
He noted that the questions remain unanswered, reiterating the need for accountability in the matter.

The US prosecutors have charged Adani with deceiving investors by concealing information about his firm's solar energy project in India, which allegedly involved bribery.

Adani has been charged with securities fraud and conspiracy, according to an indictment unsealed on Wednesday. The case focusses on an agreement between Adani Green Energy Ltd. and another organisation to supply 12 gigawatts of solar power to the Indian government.

'BETRAYAL OF INDIAN INVESTORS'

Congress leader Pawan Khera described the allegations against Gautam Adani and his conglomerate as a “betrayal of Indian investors.”

Taking to X, Khera outlined the US charges, including claims that Adani’s group bribed Indian government officials between 2020 and 2024 to secure contracts. Citing media reports, he also pointed out that Gautam Adani personally met a government official to advance the scheme.

Khera referred to a March 2024 incident where the Adani Group allegedly misled the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange, calling it a “grave violation of investor trust.”

He further highlighted a March 2023 FBI raid on the premises of Sagar Adani, Gautam Adani’s nephew, where electronic devices were seized as part of the investigation.

'SEBI NOT ABLE TO PROVE ANY CHARGES AGAINST ADANI'

Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Priyanka Chaturvedi criticised central probe agencies following US charges against Gautam Adani and others in an alleged bribery case linked to solar energy contracts.

Chaturvedi raised concerns about corporate governance and regulatory oversight in the country. “They talk about corporate governance, responsibility, and accountability. The industrialists should be asked to follow the rules and regulations, but even the agencies were defending him. The SEBI has not yet been able to prove charges against him,” she said, pointing to what she viewed as failures in ensuring accountability.

'BROUGHT DISREPUTE TO INDIA'

On US charges against Gautam Adani, AAP leader Sanjay Singh called for a probe against the industrialist. He said that the probe should be conducted by an investigation agency under the Supreme Court.

"Adani Group has brought disrepute to India. This is a very serious matter. The PM of India should come forward and answer this. All the pending matters against Adani should be probed by an investigation agency under Supreme Court monitoring, and all the corruption done by him, within and outside the country, should come out before the country and action should be taken against him," he said.

BJP DFENDS

BJP IT cell chief Amit Malviya responded sharply to the Opposition’s criticism regarding allegations involving Adani Green Energy and US-based Azure Power. He pointed out that the charges in the indictment are only allegations and emphasised, “The defendants are presumed innocent unless and until proven guilty.”

Malviya argued that the crux of the case concerns agreements to supply 12 GW of power to the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI), contingent on SECI securing power purchase agreements with state electricity distribution companies (SDCs).

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News Network
November 26,2024

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Islamabad: Four paramilitary personnel and two policemen have been killed and over 100 security personnel injured as the protest by supporters of jailed former prime minister Imran Khan turned violent prompting the federal government to deploy the army in the national capital along with shoot at sight orders on Tuesday, state-run media said.

Pakistan deployed the army amid a tense stand-off with Khan's supporters from his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) pushing forward by removing hurdles on their way to Islamabad's D-Chowk venue as the government vowed to foil their attempt “even if a curfew needs to be imposed.”

Radio Pakistan said a vehicle rammed into Pakistan Rangers personnel killing four Rangers officials on the Srinagar Highway in Islamabad late on Monday night. Five other Rangers personnel and several police officials too sustained severe injuries.

About five kilometres from this spot, a bunch of miscreants, equipped with weapons and ammunition, pelted stones on the Rangers personnel and carried out indiscriminate firing on the security personnel at Chungi No 26 in Rawalpindi, Radio Pakistan said.

It also reported that two policemen were killed but didn't provide any details.

According to Punjab police, one policeman was killed at Hakla interchange on Islamabad outskirts during clashes with the PTI protestors on Monday but it also did not give details about the second policeman.

Separately, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi said, at a late night media interaction, that more than one hundred security personnel, mostly from police, were injured and added: “One senior police officer (SP) was critically injured – he suffered a severe head injury -- due to stone-pelting by protesters.”

Radio Pakistan further reported that the Pakistan Army was called in “to deal with the miscreants with an iron hand” and “clear orders have also been issued to shoot miscreants and troublemakers on sight.”

Strongly condemning the attack on Rangers and police personnel by protesters, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, in a statement, directed to immediately identify those involved in the incident and ensure they are brought to justice.

“Attacks on police and Rangers, under the guise of a so-called peaceful protest, are condemnable,” he said, adding, the anarchist group seeks bloodshed and “Pakistan cannot afford any form of chaos or bloodshed. Bloodshed for nefarious political agenda is unacceptable and highly condemnable.”

He also instructed to provide the best possible medical facilities to those injured.

Interior Minister Naqvi said the government had offered an alternative venue to the protestors to stage their activity at Sangjani in the suburbs of the capital and apparently Khan has also agreed to it.

Despite permission given by Khan, “maybe there is a leadership above Imran Khan who has refused to accept this,” he claimed and confirmed that talks were going on with the PTI to resolve the issue and that the PTI leaders were allowed to meet Khan twice on Monday to get his input.

The government is waiting for a formal response to its offer of an alternative venue for protest and “we are now waiting for PTI’s response before taking further steps,” Naqvi added.

Naqvi also warned that “come what may, the PTI would not be allowed to stage a protest at D Chowk and even hinted of imposing a curfew if needed.”

Security sources also said that all necessary measures are being taken to counter terrorist activities by disruptive and extremist elements. “All the miscreants are also being identified to bring them to justice,” the sources added.

Meanwhile, the PTI accused the authorities of using violence in which several of its supporters have been injured. A PTI spokesman told BBC Urdu that at least two supporters have also been killed but it was not confirmed from other sources so far.

Khan, 72, the PTI founder, has been in jail since August 5, 2023, and had given the ‘final call’ for the protest to force the authorities to release all prisoners, including himself, and also restore the alleged stolen mandate or victory of his party in February 8 elections as well as rescind the last month's 26th constitutional amendment allowing the government more powers over judiciary.

Earlier on Sunday, led by Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur and Khan's wife, Bushra Bibi, the PTI supporters began their journey from the militancy-hit province with a mission to make it to D-Chowk in the national capital but faced obstacles on the roads.

The D-Chowk, close to several important government buildings: the Presidency, the PM Office, the Parliament, and the Supreme Court, is a prime location in the national capital.

The authorities had blocked the highways by placing shipping containers but the protestors accompanied by lifting equipment and other heavy machines worked their way by removing hurdles, but the hurdles did skittle their speed and plans.

The convoy entered Islamabad from Sangjani toll plaza. The party also shared footage of the KP convoy in Islamabad’s limits.

The government already banned rallies by imposing Section 144, a colonial era law used to outlaw political activities, as a high level delegation from Belarus was visiting Pakistan.

At least one policeman was killed and dozen others injured in clashes on Monday as thousands of the PTI protestors entered the territorial jurisdiction of the national capital. In one of the clashes, a policeman was killed at the Hakla interchange on Islamabad outskirts.

Another constable of the Sargodha police was injured due to “firing by miscreants” and was being treated, local media said, adding, dozens of other policemen too were injured in the clashes, but exact details were not available.

As the convoy entered the capital territory in the evening, Bushra Bibi said in a video message: “My brothers, as long as Imran is not with us, we will not end this march.”

Meanwhile, as announced on Monday, all public and private educational institutions would remain closed in view of the law and order situation both at Islamabad and Rawalpindi on Tuesday.

Khan has been implicated in dozens of cases since his government was dismissed through a no-confidence motion in 2022. He has been in Adiala Jail at Rawalpindi since last year facing over 200 cases.

His party won the largest number of seats in the February general elections despite contesting as independents as the party was denied an election symbol.

The party founder has alleged that the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and its coalition partners, including the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), had “stolen the mandate” to grab power at the federal level.

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News Network
November 16,2024

Mangaluru: The Kavoor police in Mangaluru, Karnataka, have arrested three individuals from Kerala in connection with two separate cybercrime cases, including one involving extortion under the guise of a "digital arrest."

City Commissioner of Police Anupam Agrawal reported that one of the arrested individuals, Nisar, a resident of Ernakulam district, posed as a CBI officer. He allegedly threatened the complainant with arrest and extorted Rs 68 lakh. A case has been filed under sections 66 (C) and 66 (D) of the IT Act, and sections 308 (2) and 381 (4) of BNS.

In another case, the Kavoor police arrested two men, Sahil K P of Thiruvannur, Kozhikode, and Muhammad Nashath of Mappila Koyilandy, Kerala, in connection with a share trade fraud. The accused are alleged to have deceived the complainant by promising substantial profits from an investment in the stock market. Trusting the fraudsters, the complainant invested Rs 90 lakh, which was subsequently lost. A case has been registered under sections 66 (C) and 66 (D) of the IT Act, and sections 318 (4) and 3 (5) of BNS.

The accused were arrested in Koyilandi and presented before the court. The operation was carried out under the guidance of City Police Commissioner Anupam Agrawal, led by Mangaluru North Sub-Division ACP Srikanth K, Kavoor Inspector Raghavendra Byndoor, Kavoor PSI Mallikarjuna Biradara, and staff members Ramanna Shetty, Bhuvaneshwari, Rajappa Kashibai, Praveen N, and Malatesh. 

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