India's GDP contraction in FY 21 likely closer to 10%, says statistician Pronab Sen

Agencies
December 13, 2020

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New Delhi, Dec 13: India's current macroeconomic situation is "very uncertain" and the country's GDP could contract closer to 10 per cent in the current fiscal, former chief statistician Pronab Sen said on Sunday.

In an interview with PTI, Sen said that although the overall macro-management of the economy by the Modi government has not been very good but this particular slowdown is really beyond its control.

"At the moment India's current macroeconomic situation is very uncertain. I would say we should be very very cautious. I think there is too much optimism going around.

"... the actual economic growth of India could be closer to -10 per cent in 2020-21," he said.

Sen said quarterly GDP numbers are still derived from some corporate accounts and corporates have not fared as badly as the non-corporate sector.

"We know that MSMEs have been hit much harder than the corporations. So, the headline number coming out in the national accounts is an overly optimistic picture of the economy," the eminent economist said.

Sen also stressed on bringing back confidence of the investors.

Investors are new people who put their money into creating new production capacity, that is completely missing, he said, adding that until that comes back, the economy cannot grow.

"Because at the moment, as things stand our production capacity will not be very higher than what it was in 2019-20. And in fact, it will be less than that because some of the capacity may have closed down," the former chief statistician noted.

Sen, who is also heading the Standing Committee on Statistics (SCES) said the committee could not finalise its report.

India's economy recovered faster than expected in the September quarter as a pick-up in manufacturing helped the GDP clock a lower contraction of 7.5 per cent and held out hopes for further improvement on better consumer demand.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had shrunk by a massive 23.9 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal as the Covid-19 lockdown pummelled economic activity.

The second straight quarter of contraction pushed India into a technical recession for the first time.

According to the RBI, the Indian economy is likely to contract by 7.5 per cent in 2020-21.

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News Network
November 17,2024

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An Israeli airstrike on the office of Syria’s Baath party in Lebanon’s capital Beirut has killed the Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah's Media Relations Officer, Mohammad Afif, reports say.

Lebanon's National News Agency (NNA) reported that the Israeli raid struck the Ba'ath party’s building in central Beirut district of Ras Al-Naba'a on Sunday, adding that the strike was an attempt to assassinate the leader of the resistance media front.

According to Baath Secretary-General Ali Hijazi, Afif was having a meeting in the Baath Party headquarters when Israel carried out the attack.

"Afif did not fight with weapons and did not lead a military unit in Hezbollah. Rather, he led a media unit," he said.

Reuters, Sky News, Al Jazeera and a number of Henrew-language media reported that Afif was killed in the Israeli strike.

However, Hezbollah has not yet confirmed Afif’s death or whether he was present at the site or not.

Earlier, the Lebanese Health Ministry said at least one person was killed and three others injured after an Israeli strike targeted a central district in Beirut.

Lebanon's al-Mayadeen television network reported that five people were killed in the attack.

The latest development came after Afif said Hezbollah was behind the Caesarea operation and targeting Netanyahu’s home during a speech at the Ghobeiry area in the southern suburbs of Beirut on October 22.

This was the second assassination attempt on Afif in the last two months, after he survived an attack on the Hezbollah media relations office several weeks ago.

Israel launched a ground assault and massive air campaign against Lebanon in late September after a year of exchanging fire across the Lebanese border in parallel with the Gaza war.

At least 3,287 people have been killed in Israeli strikes in Lebanon over the past year, with the vast majority in the past seven weeks. Another 14,222 have been wounded, mostly women and children.

In response to the ongoing aggression, the Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah has been staging hundreds of retaliatory strikes against the occupied Palestinian territories and the Israeli forces trying to advance on southern Lebanese areas.

The movement has vowed to sustain its strikes until the regime ends the escalation.

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News Network
November 14,2024

Bengaluru: Karnataka Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar on Thursday backed Chief Minister Siddaramaiah over his claim that the BJP had offered Rs 50 crore each to 50 Congress MLAs in an attempt to "topple" the state government.

Addressing reporters here, Shivakumar, also the Congress state president, said, “The BJP indeed lured 50 Congress MLAs with Rs 50 crore each.”

He defended Siddaramaiah’s statement and said the Congress MLAs were briefed about the BJP’s alleged 'Operation Lotus', a term used to describe the BJP's attempts to destabilise ruling governments through horse-trading.

“Some of our MLAs informed the Chief Minister about this matter, and he, in turn, shared it with the media,” Shivakumar said.

At an event in Mysuru, Siddaramaiah reiterated the claim that "none of the Congress MLAs had accepted the offer".

He also accused the BJP of filing false cases against him in a bid to "remove him and overthrow his government".

The BJP has yet to respond to the allegations.

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News Network
November 26,2024

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Former minister and ex-MLC C M Ibrahim claimed that he still heads the original JD(S) and asked former prime minister and party supremo H D Deve Gowda to cut ties with the BJP, so that the party can be strengthened again. He also said options are being explored to either strengthen the JD(S) or to float a new regional party.

He was speaking to media persons, in Mysuru, on Monday, after meeting JD(S) MLA and former minister G T Deve Gowda, who has expressed his displeasure that he has been sidelined in the party and the party leaders have indicated his retirement from politics.

He stated, “If Deve Gowda had joined the Congress, during the last Assembly election, he would have been a minister now. We retained him in the JD(S), to strengthen the party. Now, efforts are being made to strangulate Deve Gowda’s political career. I have discussed all matters with Deve Gowda. In two days, I will start a Karnataka state tour and meet some leaders. After that, I will meet Deve Gowda again, and then decide on the further course of action.”

Ibrahim said, “The original JD(S) is ours. I am still its state president. All documents and accounts are in our name. Even now, if Deve Gowda leaves BJP’s company and returns, we will build the JD(S) again”.

“Union Minister H D Kumaraswamy should mend his ways and stop making JD(S) into a family-owned company. The JD(S)’s situation has become hopeless. Its love for the BJP is over. He should understand this,” he said.

“When I was with Kumaraswamy, he spent just Rs 4 crore in Channapatna and won by 20,000 votes. Now, without me, he spent Rs 150 crore and still lost by 25,000 votes. Without Muslims’ support, the JD(S) cannot win a single seat. Now, it is proved that 19 MLAs of the JD(S) won in 2023, because of Muslims,” he added.

Speaking on other options available, Ibrahim said, “We have not yet decided to go with the Congress. We are only considering to establish a third front. Whether it is founding a new regional party, forming a third front, or strengthening the JD(S), will be decided shortly.”

Earlier during the day, before meeting Deve Gowda, Ibrahim had said, that 12 to 13 JD(S) MLAs were dissatisfied with the party, but like Deve Gowda, were enduring pain.

“Now, I have started the task of uniting them. I as the JD(S) state president, it is my responsibility to address our MLAs’ grievances. At present, the JD(S) is on fire and all JD(S) MLAs want to protect their respective constituency. Hence, they have started speaking one by one,” he said.

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