India's GDP contraction in FY 21 likely closer to 10%, says statistician Pronab Sen

Agencies
December 13, 2020

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New Delhi, Dec 13: India's current macroeconomic situation is "very uncertain" and the country's GDP could contract closer to 10 per cent in the current fiscal, former chief statistician Pronab Sen said on Sunday.

In an interview with PTI, Sen said that although the overall macro-management of the economy by the Modi government has not been very good but this particular slowdown is really beyond its control.

"At the moment India's current macroeconomic situation is very uncertain. I would say we should be very very cautious. I think there is too much optimism going around.

"... the actual economic growth of India could be closer to -10 per cent in 2020-21," he said.

Sen said quarterly GDP numbers are still derived from some corporate accounts and corporates have not fared as badly as the non-corporate sector.

"We know that MSMEs have been hit much harder than the corporations. So, the headline number coming out in the national accounts is an overly optimistic picture of the economy," the eminent economist said.

Sen also stressed on bringing back confidence of the investors.

Investors are new people who put their money into creating new production capacity, that is completely missing, he said, adding that until that comes back, the economy cannot grow.

"Because at the moment, as things stand our production capacity will not be very higher than what it was in 2019-20. And in fact, it will be less than that because some of the capacity may have closed down," the former chief statistician noted.

Sen, who is also heading the Standing Committee on Statistics (SCES) said the committee could not finalise its report.

India's economy recovered faster than expected in the September quarter as a pick-up in manufacturing helped the GDP clock a lower contraction of 7.5 per cent and held out hopes for further improvement on better consumer demand.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had shrunk by a massive 23.9 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal as the Covid-19 lockdown pummelled economic activity.

The second straight quarter of contraction pushed India into a technical recession for the first time.

According to the RBI, the Indian economy is likely to contract by 7.5 per cent in 2020-21.

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News Network
November 12,2024

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The UN humanitarian coordinator for Lebanon has warned that the “picture of life in Lebanon remains grim,” highlighting an "alarming" level of human suffering and significant humanitarian consequences due to the ongoing Israeli carnage.

Imran Riza, the UN Deputy Special Coordinator and Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Lebanon (UNSCOL), provided a stark overview of the Arab country's dire circumstances in a statement released on Monday.

“The current picture of life in Lebanon remains grim. Yesterday, airstrikes reportedly killed 23 people, including seven children, in the village of Aalmat in Mount Lebanon,” Riza said on X.

An airstrike in the city of Tyre on the same day resulted in the tragic deaths of five siblings from a single family, all of whom had special needs, according to his statement.

He added that in the last week, Israeli airstrikes have killed at least 241 individuals and left 642 others injured in Lebanon, as reported by the Ministry of Health.

“In the past month, more than 185,000 people have fled their homes in their search for safety within the country, bringing the total to over 870,000 people internally displaced,” Riza said

The UN official highlighted that numerous individuals, including the elderly and those with health issues, are staying behind while witnessing the ruins of their ancestral homes.

He urged for the swift safeguarding of civilian people and infrastructure, emphasizing the necessity to uphold international humanitarian law and end the ongoing violence.

Lebanon’s National News Agency reported that Israeli forces bombed a house in the town of Maydoun in Bekaa on Monday night, killing three people and destroying the house.

Earlier, Israel bombed the northern town of Ain Yaaqoub, killing at least 14 people.

The killings came as Israeli military continued to pound Lebanon, bombing shops selling electrical appliances in the southern city of Tyre and carrying out air raids on the towns of Shamshtar in eastern Baalbek and Roumine in southern Nabatieh.

Lebanon’s Ministry of Health said Israeli attacks killed at least 54 people across the country on Monday.

Israel’s merciless attacks continue despite calls from the UN Security Council for an immediate ceasefire and directives from the International Court of Justice urging measures to prevent genocide and alleviate the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza and Lebanon.

In Lebanon, at least 3,243 people have been killed and 14,134 others wounded in Israeli attacks since the war on Gaza began on October 7, 2023.

The Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah opened a support front for Palestinians in Gaza only a day after the Israeli regime unleashed its genocidal war on the besieged territory.

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News Network
November 12,2024

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The Palestinian Hamas resistance movement says its fighters have killed at least 20 Israeli soldiers in northern parts of the besieged Gaza Strip in just two days, in retaliation for the occupying regime’s genocidal war on the Palestinian territory.

In a statement on Monday evening, Hamas said that fighters of its military wing, al-Qassam Brigades, “killed at least five occupation soldiers” in northern parts of the coastal territory earlier in the day.

It added that Hamas fighters also killed 15 Israeli soldiers in the war-ravaged region on Sunday.

The resistance movement’s “qualitative operation … confirms once again the failure of the criminal Zionist entity to suppress and eradicate the Palestinian resistance, which continues to direct qualitative strikes against its terrorist soldiers,” Hamas further said on its Telegram channel.

Palestinians have increased their resistance operations in the face of intensified Israeli aggression in northern Gaza that has claimed the lives of more than 1,000 over the past weeks.

“Our valiant resistance is waging a war of attrition with the criminal enemy, inflicting daily losses on its soldiers and vehicles, and all of [Israeli prime minister Benjamin] Netanyahu’s bets and dreams of achieving any of his goals are failing,” the Gaza-based resistance movement added.

Hamas also vowed that Israel’s ongoing crimes and aggression against Gaza would be met with increased resistance and painful strikes, which will continue until the aggression against Palestinians ends and the regime fully withdraws from the blockaded territory.

As the war in Gaza enters its 14th month, the Health Ministry reports that Israeli attacks have killed at least 43,603 Palestinians and wounded 102,929 others.

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News Network
November 21,2024

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After the US prosecutors charged Gautam Adani with bribery and fraud, Congress reiterated its call for a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) probe into the transactions of the Adani group, and hit out at Prime Minister Narendra Modi, alleging an "internal nexus" between him and "his favourite businessman."

Senior Congress leader Jairam Ramesh said the indictment of Gautam Adani and others by the US Securities and Exchange Commission validates his party’s call for a Joint Parliamentary Committee investigation.

The Congress has been pushing for the probe since January 2023, raising concerns over alleged irregularities involving Adani and his business dealings, said Ramesh.

Ramesh referred to the party’s “Hum Adani ke Hain” series, where 100 questions were raised about the alleged scams and the links between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Gautam Adani.
He noted that the questions remain unanswered, reiterating the need for accountability in the matter.

The US prosecutors have charged Adani with deceiving investors by concealing information about his firm's solar energy project in India, which allegedly involved bribery.

Adani has been charged with securities fraud and conspiracy, according to an indictment unsealed on Wednesday. The case focusses on an agreement between Adani Green Energy Ltd. and another organisation to supply 12 gigawatts of solar power to the Indian government.

'BETRAYAL OF INDIAN INVESTORS'

Congress leader Pawan Khera described the allegations against Gautam Adani and his conglomerate as a “betrayal of Indian investors.”

Taking to X, Khera outlined the US charges, including claims that Adani’s group bribed Indian government officials between 2020 and 2024 to secure contracts. Citing media reports, he also pointed out that Gautam Adani personally met a government official to advance the scheme.

Khera referred to a March 2024 incident where the Adani Group allegedly misled the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange, calling it a “grave violation of investor trust.”

He further highlighted a March 2023 FBI raid on the premises of Sagar Adani, Gautam Adani’s nephew, where electronic devices were seized as part of the investigation.

'SEBI NOT ABLE TO PROVE ANY CHARGES AGAINST ADANI'

Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Priyanka Chaturvedi criticised central probe agencies following US charges against Gautam Adani and others in an alleged bribery case linked to solar energy contracts.

Chaturvedi raised concerns about corporate governance and regulatory oversight in the country. “They talk about corporate governance, responsibility, and accountability. The industrialists should be asked to follow the rules and regulations, but even the agencies were defending him. The SEBI has not yet been able to prove charges against him,” she said, pointing to what she viewed as failures in ensuring accountability.

'BROUGHT DISREPUTE TO INDIA'

On US charges against Gautam Adani, AAP leader Sanjay Singh called for a probe against the industrialist. He said that the probe should be conducted by an investigation agency under the Supreme Court.

"Adani Group has brought disrepute to India. This is a very serious matter. The PM of India should come forward and answer this. All the pending matters against Adani should be probed by an investigation agency under Supreme Court monitoring, and all the corruption done by him, within and outside the country, should come out before the country and action should be taken against him," he said.

BJP DFENDS

BJP IT cell chief Amit Malviya responded sharply to the Opposition’s criticism regarding allegations involving Adani Green Energy and US-based Azure Power. He pointed out that the charges in the indictment are only allegations and emphasised, “The defendants are presumed innocent unless and until proven guilty.”

Malviya argued that the crux of the case concerns agreements to supply 12 GW of power to the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI), contingent on SECI securing power purchase agreements with state electricity distribution companies (SDCs).

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