India’s GDP expected to contract by 9.6% this fiscal: World Bank

News Network
October 8, 2020

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The World Bank on Thursday said that India’s GDP is expected to contract by 9.6 per cent this fiscal which is reflective of the national lockdown and the income shock experienced by households and firms due to the Covid-19 pandemic, noting that the country's economic situation is “much worse” than ever seen before.

The Washington-based global lender, in its latest South Asia Economic Focus report ahead of the annual meeting of the World bank and International Monetary Fund, forecasts a sharper than expected economic slump across the region, with regional growth expected to contract by 7.7 per cent in 2020, after topping six per cent annually in the past five years.

“India’s GDP is expected to contract by 9.6 per cent in the fiscal year that started in March,” the World Bank said in the report released here.

Regional growth is projected to rebound to 4.5 per cent in 2021, it said.

Factoring in population growth, however, income-per-capita in the region will remain 6 per cent below 2019 estimates, indicating that the expected rebound will not offset the lasting economic damage caused by the pandemic, it said.

“The situation is much worse in India than we have ever seen before,” Hans Timmer, World Bank Chief Economist for South Asia told reporters during a conference call.

“It is an exceptional situation in India. A very dire outlook,” he said.

There was a 25 per cent decline in GDP in the second quarter of the year, which is the first quarter of the current fiscal year in India.

In the report, the World bank said that the spread of the coronavirus and containment measures have severely disrupted supply and demand conditions in India.

With the intent to contain the spread of COVID-19, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with effect from March 25, announced a nationwide complete lockdown that brought as much as 70 per cent of economic activity, investment, exports and discretionary consumption to a standstill. Only essential goods and services such as agriculture, mining, utility services, some financial and IT services and public services were allowed to operate.

Dubbed as the world's biggest lockdown, it shut a majority of the factories and businesses, suspended flights, stopped trains and restricted movement of vehicles and people.

According to the World Bank, monetary policy has been deployed aggressively and fiscal resources have been channeled to public health and social protection, but additional counter-cyclical measures will be needed, within a revised medium-term fiscal framework.

Despite measures to shield vulnerable households and firms, the trajectory of poverty reduction has slowed, if not reversed, it said.

“We have seen from the rapid survey that many people have lost their jobs,” Timmer said, adding that this is happening against a background when India's economy was already slowing down before the pandemic.

“We had seen a rise in non-performing loans. Those are all vulnerabilities that India has to deal with,” he said.

Responding to a question, Timmer said what the Indian government has done with limited resources and limited fiscal space is very impressive.

“We have seen a loosening of monetary policy. You have seen attempts to increase credit to the private sector to help a company survive,” he said, adding that there have been big efforts in the health sector and expansion of a social safety net.

“But with every big crisis, I think, we have to realise that this will not go over anytime soon. And it will actually change the longer-term future also. What this reveals is really as good as federal policies, especially the policies related to the informal sector.

“There's a big problem that the informal sector has no coverage in social insurance. What we see now is that especially the informal workers in the middle of the income distribution have lost their jobs. There are no systems in place to support those people,” Timmer said.

Responding to another question, Timmer said that as a result of Covid-19, the World Bank estimates that in one year, the number of people living below the poverty line has increased by 33 per cent.

In its report, the World Bank said that the response of the government of India to the COVID-19 outbreak was swift and comprehensive. A strict lockdown was implemented to contain the health emergency.

To mitigate its impact on the poorest, it was complemented by social protection measures; to ensure that businesses could maintain their operations, the Reserve Bank of India and the government also provided liquidity and other regulatory support, it said.

“Nonetheless, there was a massive contraction in output and poor and vulnerable households experienced significant social hardships – specifically urban migrants and workers in the informal economy,” the bank said.

After fiscal 2017, during which the economy grew at 8.3 per cent, growth decelerated in each subsequent year to 7.0, 6.1 and 4.2 per cent.

This was on account of two mutually reinforcing dynamics: emerging weaknesses in non-bank financial companies (a major source of credit growth, making up for risk aversion from banks) and slowing private consumption growth, the bank added.

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News Network
November 26,2024

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Islamabad: Four paramilitary personnel and two policemen have been killed and over 100 security personnel injured as the protest by supporters of jailed former prime minister Imran Khan turned violent prompting the federal government to deploy the army in the national capital along with shoot at sight orders on Tuesday, state-run media said.

Pakistan deployed the army amid a tense stand-off with Khan's supporters from his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) pushing forward by removing hurdles on their way to Islamabad's D-Chowk venue as the government vowed to foil their attempt “even if a curfew needs to be imposed.”

Radio Pakistan said a vehicle rammed into Pakistan Rangers personnel killing four Rangers officials on the Srinagar Highway in Islamabad late on Monday night. Five other Rangers personnel and several police officials too sustained severe injuries.

About five kilometres from this spot, a bunch of miscreants, equipped with weapons and ammunition, pelted stones on the Rangers personnel and carried out indiscriminate firing on the security personnel at Chungi No 26 in Rawalpindi, Radio Pakistan said.

It also reported that two policemen were killed but didn't provide any details.

According to Punjab police, one policeman was killed at Hakla interchange on Islamabad outskirts during clashes with the PTI protestors on Monday but it also did not give details about the second policeman.

Separately, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi said, at a late night media interaction, that more than one hundred security personnel, mostly from police, were injured and added: “One senior police officer (SP) was critically injured – he suffered a severe head injury -- due to stone-pelting by protesters.”

Radio Pakistan further reported that the Pakistan Army was called in “to deal with the miscreants with an iron hand” and “clear orders have also been issued to shoot miscreants and troublemakers on sight.”

Strongly condemning the attack on Rangers and police personnel by protesters, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, in a statement, directed to immediately identify those involved in the incident and ensure they are brought to justice.

“Attacks on police and Rangers, under the guise of a so-called peaceful protest, are condemnable,” he said, adding, the anarchist group seeks bloodshed and “Pakistan cannot afford any form of chaos or bloodshed. Bloodshed for nefarious political agenda is unacceptable and highly condemnable.”

He also instructed to provide the best possible medical facilities to those injured.

Interior Minister Naqvi said the government had offered an alternative venue to the protestors to stage their activity at Sangjani in the suburbs of the capital and apparently Khan has also agreed to it.

Despite permission given by Khan, “maybe there is a leadership above Imran Khan who has refused to accept this,” he claimed and confirmed that talks were going on with the PTI to resolve the issue and that the PTI leaders were allowed to meet Khan twice on Monday to get his input.

The government is waiting for a formal response to its offer of an alternative venue for protest and “we are now waiting for PTI’s response before taking further steps,” Naqvi added.

Naqvi also warned that “come what may, the PTI would not be allowed to stage a protest at D Chowk and even hinted of imposing a curfew if needed.”

Security sources also said that all necessary measures are being taken to counter terrorist activities by disruptive and extremist elements. “All the miscreants are also being identified to bring them to justice,” the sources added.

Meanwhile, the PTI accused the authorities of using violence in which several of its supporters have been injured. A PTI spokesman told BBC Urdu that at least two supporters have also been killed but it was not confirmed from other sources so far.

Khan, 72, the PTI founder, has been in jail since August 5, 2023, and had given the ‘final call’ for the protest to force the authorities to release all prisoners, including himself, and also restore the alleged stolen mandate or victory of his party in February 8 elections as well as rescind the last month's 26th constitutional amendment allowing the government more powers over judiciary.

Earlier on Sunday, led by Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur and Khan's wife, Bushra Bibi, the PTI supporters began their journey from the militancy-hit province with a mission to make it to D-Chowk in the national capital but faced obstacles on the roads.

The D-Chowk, close to several important government buildings: the Presidency, the PM Office, the Parliament, and the Supreme Court, is a prime location in the national capital.

The authorities had blocked the highways by placing shipping containers but the protestors accompanied by lifting equipment and other heavy machines worked their way by removing hurdles, but the hurdles did skittle their speed and plans.

The convoy entered Islamabad from Sangjani toll plaza. The party also shared footage of the KP convoy in Islamabad’s limits.

The government already banned rallies by imposing Section 144, a colonial era law used to outlaw political activities, as a high level delegation from Belarus was visiting Pakistan.

At least one policeman was killed and dozen others injured in clashes on Monday as thousands of the PTI protestors entered the territorial jurisdiction of the national capital. In one of the clashes, a policeman was killed at the Hakla interchange on Islamabad outskirts.

Another constable of the Sargodha police was injured due to “firing by miscreants” and was being treated, local media said, adding, dozens of other policemen too were injured in the clashes, but exact details were not available.

As the convoy entered the capital territory in the evening, Bushra Bibi said in a video message: “My brothers, as long as Imran is not with us, we will not end this march.”

Meanwhile, as announced on Monday, all public and private educational institutions would remain closed in view of the law and order situation both at Islamabad and Rawalpindi on Tuesday.

Khan has been implicated in dozens of cases since his government was dismissed through a no-confidence motion in 2022. He has been in Adiala Jail at Rawalpindi since last year facing over 200 cases.

His party won the largest number of seats in the February general elections despite contesting as independents as the party was denied an election symbol.

The party founder has alleged that the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and its coalition partners, including the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), had “stolen the mandate” to grab power at the federal level.

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News Network
November 13,2024

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New Delhi: The Supreme Court took a firm stance on ‘bulldozer justice’ today, affirming that the Executive cannot bypass the Judiciary and that the legal process must not prejudge the guilt of an accused. In a significant judgment, the bench led by Justices BR Gavai and KV Viswanathan set new guidelines for demolition practices, responding to petitions challenging the controversial bulldozer actions taken against individuals accused of crimes.

The rise of this practice, termed 'bulldozer justice,' has seen authorities in various states demolish what they claim to be illegal structures belonging to accused individuals. However, multiple petitions questioned the legality and fairness of this approach, bringing the matter before the court.

Justice Gavai highlighted that owning a home is a cherished goal for many families, and an essential question was whether the Executive should have the authority to strip individuals of their shelter. “In a democracy, the rule of law protects citizens from arbitrary actions by the state. The criminal justice system must not assume guilt,” stated the bench, underscoring that due process is a fundamental right under the Constitution.

On the principle of separation of powers, the bench reinforced that the Judiciary alone holds adjudicatory powers and that the Executive cannot overstep these boundaries. Justice Gavai remarked, “When the state demolishes a home purely because its resident is accused of a crime, it violates the doctrine of separation of powers.”

The court issued a strong warning about accountability, stating that public officials who misuse their power or act arbitrarily must face consequences. Justice Gavai observed that selectively demolishing one property while ignoring similar cases suggests that the aim might be to penalize rather than enforce legality. “For most citizens, a house is the product of years of labor and dreams. Taking it away must be an action of last resort, thoroughly justified,” he said.

In its directives under Article 142 of the Constitution, the Supreme Court established new demolition guidelines. These include:

Mandatory Show-Cause Notice: No demolition should occur without first issuing a show-cause notice. The person served has a minimum of 15 days or the duration stated in local laws to respond.

Transparency of Notice Content: The notice must include specifics about the alleged unauthorized construction, the nature of the violation, and the rationale for demolition.

Hearing and Final Order: Authorities are required to hear the response of the affected individual before issuing a final order. The homeowner will have 15 days to address the issue, with demolition proceeding only if no stay order is obtained from an appellate authority.

Contempt Proceedings: Any breach of these guidelines would lead to contempt proceedings. Officials who disregard these norms will be personally accountable for restitution, with costs deducted from their salaries.

Additionally, the court mandated that all municipal bodies establish digital portals within three months, displaying show-cause notices and final orders on unauthorized structures to ensure public transparency and accountability.

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News Network
November 27,2024

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Chandrashekaranatha Swami (left) with chief minister

Bengaluru: Amidst the ongoing Waqf controversy in the state, a Vokkaliga seer has sparked controversy by suggesting the disenfranchisement of Muslims, claiming it would end vote bank politics in India.

The provocative remarks were made by Kumara Chandrashekaranatha Swami during a protest organized by the Bharatiya Kisan Sangh, a farmers’ organization with links to the RSS. The protest focused on farmers' lands being marked as Waqf properties.

"Politicians are exploiting this issue for votes. Muslims should be deprived of voting rights. This step is necessary to eliminate vote bank politics and allow India to prosper," the seer stated. He is the head of the Vishwa Vokkaliga Mahasamsthana Mutt, which was founded with support from JD(S) leader and former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda.

The seer also made misleading claims about Pakistan, stating, “In Pakistan, minorities don’t have the right to vote. If we implement the same in India, Muslims would be isolated, and peace would prevail.” However, minorities in Pakistan have voting rights. 

Chandrashekaranatha Swami continued his criticism of the Waqf Board, accusing it of unlawfully seizing properties. “It is unjust to take someone’s property. We must ensure that the Waqf Board is abolished,” he said. He further emphasized the need for farmers' land to remain protected, even at the cost of political fallout.

Minister Condemns Remarks

Minister for Social Welfare, H.C. Mahadevappa, swiftly condemned the seer’s comments, stating, “After years of struggle, Baba Saheb Dr. B.R. Ambedkar established the principle of ‘one vote, one value.’ It is crucial for Dalits, backward communities, and minorities to understand its significance.”

He continued, "Those who spread hatred for political gain under the guise of religion must end their harmful rhetoric."

Earlier, Kumara Chandrashekaranatha Swami had stirred controversy by suggesting that Chief Minister Siddaramaiah step down to allow Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar to assume the role of Chief Minister for the remainder of the term. The statement created a fresh political debate, raising questions about the power dynamics in Karnataka's ruling party.

The seer remarked, “Everyone has had the opportunity to hold the Chief Minister’s position, except D.K. Shivakumar. I request our experienced Chief Minister Siddaramaiah to vacate the post and bless Shivakumar with the opportunity.”

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