Even as BJP has intensified its effort to dismantle opposition block I.N.D.A. and break Bihar’s Mahagathbandhan by allying again with the Janata Dal (United) once again, Nitish Kumar is most likely to retain the Chief Minister’s post in the potential National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government in the state with two Deputy CMs from the BJP as per the post-2020 Assembly polls formula.
The BJP is likely to give representation to a leader from an Extremely Backward Class (EBC), most likely appointing former Deputy CM Renu Devi who is from the Nonia community.
In 2020, Renu Devi became Bihar’s first woman Deputy CM and served in the post till August 2022, when Nitish switched over to the Mahagathbandhan to bring an end to the NDA government.
According to party insiders, there is no unanimity yet over the choice of the second Deputy CM. Among the leaders being considered are former Deputy CM and Rajya Sabha MP Sushil Kumar Modi, current Leader of Opposition Vijay Kumar Sinha, and current MoS for Home Affairs Nityanand Rai.
According to sources, Nitish Kumar is most likely to tender his resignation and stake a fresh claim to form the government on Sunday, according to sources, with the BJP and the JD(U) likely to hold party meetings and later convene a meeting of the alliance to choose Nitish as its leader. Sushil Kumar Modi and Sinha have said they will go with whatever decision the BJP’s central leadership takes in the interest of the party.
The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) along with the Congress and the three Left parties have 114 MLAs, just eight short of a simple majority in the House of 243 members. The JD(U) with 45 MLAs and the BJP with 78 legislators and the support of one Independent legislator has 124 MLAs, more than the simple majority.
Sources said the RJD might reach out to some JD(U) MLAs to stop Nitish from forming the government with the BJP. RJD national spokesperson and Rajya Sabha MP Manoj Kumar Jha, however, strongly dismissed it saying, “We do not engage in such things. But we also want Nitish Kumar to clarify things.”
Meanwhile, Nitish attended the customary high tea function organised by Bihar Governor R V Arlekar at the Raj Bhavan. Deputy CM Tejashwi Prasad Yadav did not attend the function. In a message to the Opposition INDIA alliance, JD(U) state president Umesh Kushwaha told reporters, “Though we are still with the INDIA bloc, it should introspect why things are going wrong.”
Ball in Modi-Shah’s court
However, the Bihar state unit of the BJP has reportedly voiced reservations about the possibility of Nitish Kumar’s return to the NDA. Senior state leaders, including state BJP chief Samrat Choudhary and former deputy chief minister Sushil Kumar Modi, flew to Delhi Thursday evening to meet Union Home Minister Amit Shah.
“It is obvious that the JD(U) has initiated talks with the BJP’s top brass on rejoining the NDA, a move most state leaders countered at the meeting,” a BJP leader said.
The state unit, according to the leader, told Shah that there were several factors working in BJP’s favour at the moment: the appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the euphoria over the Ram mandir, and central government schemes.
“Amit Shah gave them a patient hearing but did not say anything. Of course, all state BJP leaders will fall in line if the central leadership takes the call,” the leader added.
There is, however, a minority view within the state BJP leadership, which favours Kumar’s entry. They believe that the BJP can now win 28 to 30 Lok Sabha seats in the state with a total of 40 seats. But the influence of Kumar may bump up that number to 35 because of the complete consolidation of the economically backward classes (EBCs), another BJP leader present at the meeting said. “It will also deliver a death blow to the INDIA bloc as the man, who initiated its formation, will walk out and into the BJP,” he added.
Nitish Kumar, it is learnt, has been in favour of simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in Bihar. But his idea, according to a source, was rejected by coalition partner Lalu Prasad Yadav. BJP sources indicated the party was not in favour of dissolving the assembly, and if Kumar was inducted, he would remain CM sans the home and personnel departments till 2024. The nitty-gritty of the were still being worked out, they maintained.
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