Rupee turns into Asia's worst emerging market currency as funds shun India

Agencies
December 21, 2021

The Indian rupee is set to end a tumultuous year as Asia’s worst-performing emerging market currency with foreign funds fleeing the nation’s stocks.

The currency declined 1.9 per cent this quarter as global funds pulled $4.2 billion of capital out of the country’s stock market, the most among regional markets where data is available.

Foreigners sold Indian stocks as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Nomura Holdings Inc. recently lowered their outlook for equities, citing lofty valuations, at a time when concerns about the Omicron variant are roiling the global markets. Record-high trade deficit and the central bank’s policy divergence with the Federal Reserve have also impinged on the rupee’s carry appeal.

“The monetary policy divergence and widening current account gap have set depreciation in the rupee in the near term,” said B. Prasanna, head of global markets, sales, trading and research at ICICI Bank Ltd in Mumbai.

Depreciation in rupee is a double-edged sword for the Reserve Bank of India. While a weaker currency may support exports amid a nascent economic recovery from the pandemic, it also poses risk of imported inflation, and may make it difficult for the central bank to maintain interest rates at a record low for longer.

QuantArt Market Solutions expects the rupee to decline to 78 per dollar by end-March, falling past the previous record low of 76.9088 reached in April 2020, while a Bloomberg survey of traders and analysts forecast the rupee at 76.50. The rupee is set to drop about 4 per cent this year in a fourth straight year of losses.

Stocks on the edge

Foreign exodus from stocks have led to the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex Index falling by about 10 per cent below an all-time high touched in October. Despite that, the one-year forward price-to-earnings ratio for the Sensex is near 21, compared to 12 for MSCI’s Emerging Markets Index, meaning there’s room for the equities to fall even further. Bonds have seen $587 million of outflows this quarter.

Bearish rupee calls are rising as India’s trade deficit widened to an all-time high of about $23 billion in November amid higher imports. The ample liquidity in the banking system, partly created by the RBI’s dollar purchases, may make it difficult for the central bank to intervene to the same extent in 2022 to curb rupee’s losses, according to Goldman Sachs. 

Still, not all are pessimistic. A likely reversal in foreign inflows in the coming quarter on account of share sales in companies including Life Insurance Corp. of India, billed as India’s biggest initial public offer, may cushion the rupee, according to UBS AG.

The rupee gained 0.4 per cent on Tuesday to 75.63 per dollar, helping pare the recent declines.

Beyond the temporary spike in dollar/rupee expected in the next four-to-six weeks, “we see the one-off flows and supportive 1Q current-account seasonality to come at play,” said Rohit Arora, emerging market Asia strategist at UBS. “As long as oil remains tamed, rupee should end the fiscal year below current levels possibly in 74-75 range.”

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News Network
November 13,2024

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New Delhi: The Supreme Court took a firm stance on ‘bulldozer justice’ today, affirming that the Executive cannot bypass the Judiciary and that the legal process must not prejudge the guilt of an accused. In a significant judgment, the bench led by Justices BR Gavai and KV Viswanathan set new guidelines for demolition practices, responding to petitions challenging the controversial bulldozer actions taken against individuals accused of crimes.

The rise of this practice, termed 'bulldozer justice,' has seen authorities in various states demolish what they claim to be illegal structures belonging to accused individuals. However, multiple petitions questioned the legality and fairness of this approach, bringing the matter before the court.

Justice Gavai highlighted that owning a home is a cherished goal for many families, and an essential question was whether the Executive should have the authority to strip individuals of their shelter. “In a democracy, the rule of law protects citizens from arbitrary actions by the state. The criminal justice system must not assume guilt,” stated the bench, underscoring that due process is a fundamental right under the Constitution.

On the principle of separation of powers, the bench reinforced that the Judiciary alone holds adjudicatory powers and that the Executive cannot overstep these boundaries. Justice Gavai remarked, “When the state demolishes a home purely because its resident is accused of a crime, it violates the doctrine of separation of powers.”

The court issued a strong warning about accountability, stating that public officials who misuse their power or act arbitrarily must face consequences. Justice Gavai observed that selectively demolishing one property while ignoring similar cases suggests that the aim might be to penalize rather than enforce legality. “For most citizens, a house is the product of years of labor and dreams. Taking it away must be an action of last resort, thoroughly justified,” he said.

In its directives under Article 142 of the Constitution, the Supreme Court established new demolition guidelines. These include:

Mandatory Show-Cause Notice: No demolition should occur without first issuing a show-cause notice. The person served has a minimum of 15 days or the duration stated in local laws to respond.

Transparency of Notice Content: The notice must include specifics about the alleged unauthorized construction, the nature of the violation, and the rationale for demolition.

Hearing and Final Order: Authorities are required to hear the response of the affected individual before issuing a final order. The homeowner will have 15 days to address the issue, with demolition proceeding only if no stay order is obtained from an appellate authority.

Contempt Proceedings: Any breach of these guidelines would lead to contempt proceedings. Officials who disregard these norms will be personally accountable for restitution, with costs deducted from their salaries.

Additionally, the court mandated that all municipal bodies establish digital portals within three months, displaying show-cause notices and final orders on unauthorized structures to ensure public transparency and accountability.

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News Network
November 17,2024

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An Israeli airstrike on the office of Syria’s Baath party in Lebanon’s capital Beirut has killed the Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah's Media Relations Officer, Mohammad Afif, reports say.

Lebanon's National News Agency (NNA) reported that the Israeli raid struck the Ba'ath party’s building in central Beirut district of Ras Al-Naba'a on Sunday, adding that the strike was an attempt to assassinate the leader of the resistance media front.

According to Baath Secretary-General Ali Hijazi, Afif was having a meeting in the Baath Party headquarters when Israel carried out the attack.

"Afif did not fight with weapons and did not lead a military unit in Hezbollah. Rather, he led a media unit," he said.

Reuters, Sky News, Al Jazeera and a number of Henrew-language media reported that Afif was killed in the Israeli strike.

However, Hezbollah has not yet confirmed Afif’s death or whether he was present at the site or not.

Earlier, the Lebanese Health Ministry said at least one person was killed and three others injured after an Israeli strike targeted a central district in Beirut.

Lebanon's al-Mayadeen television network reported that five people were killed in the attack.

The latest development came after Afif said Hezbollah was behind the Caesarea operation and targeting Netanyahu’s home during a speech at the Ghobeiry area in the southern suburbs of Beirut on October 22.

This was the second assassination attempt on Afif in the last two months, after he survived an attack on the Hezbollah media relations office several weeks ago.

Israel launched a ground assault and massive air campaign against Lebanon in late September after a year of exchanging fire across the Lebanese border in parallel with the Gaza war.

At least 3,287 people have been killed in Israeli strikes in Lebanon over the past year, with the vast majority in the past seven weeks. Another 14,222 have been wounded, mostly women and children.

In response to the ongoing aggression, the Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah has been staging hundreds of retaliatory strikes against the occupied Palestinian territories and the Israeli forces trying to advance on southern Lebanese areas.

The movement has vowed to sustain its strikes until the regime ends the escalation.

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News Network
November 25,2024

Udupi: Six junior artists from the prequel of Kannada blockbuster film ‘Kantara’ were injured, when the bus they were travelling in overturned in the district, police said on Monday.

According to police, the accident occurred near Jadkal on Sunday night when the mini-bus carrying the crew of the film overturned.

“The incident happened while they were returning to Kollur after completing the shoot at Mudoor in Jadkal. The mini-bus was carrying 20 junior artistes when it met with the accident,” a police officer said.

The injured were rushed to hospitals in Jadkal and Kundapur for treatment, they said.

The Kollur police are investigating the matter.

"The news making rounds is completely false. The Kantara: Chapter 1 team began shooting at 06:00 AM today, and everything is proceeding as normal. A minor accident occurred 20 kilometres away from the shooting location, involving a local bus carrying some members of the Kantara team. However, no injuries were reported," a source close to the production said.

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