Assembly elections could halt PM Modi's winning streak

Agencies
December 10, 2018

New Delhi, Dec 10: Prime Minister Narendra Modi is staring at election losses in big heartland states, polls show, suggesting that farm distress and a lack of jobs for growing numbers of young people could prove stumbling blocks for his re-election bid in May.

India counts votes on Tuesday from five states that chose new assemblies over the past month, but exit polls show Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could lose the three most important races, while it has little presence in two smaller states dominated by regional parties.

The loss would be the biggest for Modi's Hindu nationalists since they swept to power in 2014 general elections, followed by wins over the past four years in 22 of India's 29 states, on promises of thousands of jobs and a doubling in farm income.

Politicians view state polls, though they are usually decided by regional issues, as a pointer to the mood of the BJP's traditional voting base, ahead of a general election that must be held by May.

"The results will set the tone for the 2019 election," said Sachin Pilot, a leader of the main opposition Congress party.

Congress is tipped to win in Rajasthan, scrape through in Chhattisgarh and is locked in a photo finish with the BJP in Madhya Pradesh. Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are among India's biggest states.

"The BJP has made a lot of tall claims about income, jobs etc," Pilot added. "They came out with 28 slogans, 'Swachh Bharat' ('Clean India'), 'Make in India' and such, but how many were implemented?"

Modi remains the frontrunner for the general election, however, trailed in personal ratings by his main challenger, Congress president Rahul Gandhi.

Modi promised to clean up India and turn it into a top tourist destination as well as lift the share of manufacturing in its economy to a quarter of gross domestic product, following the example of China.

But it has grown only slightly, to 17 percent, with nearly all the ambitious clean-up programmes for cities and the river Ganges, as well as the Make-in-India campaign to build a domestic industrial base, largely unfulfilled.

Anger over weak farm prices, slow growth in rural wages and small businesses hit by a new nationwide goods and service tax has also boiled over, provoking protests by tens of thousands of farmers in Delhi and Mumbai.

Although the BJP might drop a few seats because of anti-incumbency sentiment, it was not losing everything, as some surveys forecast, said party spokesman G.V.L. Narasimha Rao.

"They have underassessed the BJP," he added. "They have done it previously too."

Surveys often prove wrong, partly because it is tough to forecast the outcome of elections involving India's millions of voters.

Hindu First

Still, a poor performance could prompt the BJP to push its brand of Hindu nationalism harder, politicians and analysts say.

"The BJP campaign will focus on nationalism, Hindutva and corruption," said Shekhar Gupta, a political analyst, using a term that refers to the party's Hindu-first plank.

Hindus make up about 80 percent of India's population of 1.3 billion, while Muslims are about 14 percent.

Already hardline groups associated with the party have reignited their campaign for a temple to the god-king Rama at a site where Hindu zealots razed a 16th-century mosque in 1992.

Thousands of Hindu monks and activists linked to the BJP gathered in New Delhi on Sunday in a show of force to back the temple.

Hindu fringe groups have stepped up a campaign against the slaughter of cows, which many in India consider sacred, as vigilante groups target Muslims in the livestock trade.

Modi is expected to try to recover political ground with giveaways in the next few months for small businesses and farmers, who make up a big chunk of voters.

"The state elections will be seen as a litmus test of Modi‘s popularity," said Simon Finch, fund manager at London-based Ashburton Investments.

"However, we would expect any blemishes to be met with a continuation of the populist measures increasingly evident during the past four years."

If the BJP did well, that would be a further catalyst for the market, said Mike Sell, head of Asian investments at asset management firm Alquity, who sees Modi's economic measures, such as a unified goods and services tax, eventually paying off.

"Even if they did badly, they wouldn't make us do anything negative and we will use any weakness as a buying opportunity."

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News Network
March 17,2024

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New Delhi: The Election Commission on Sunday made public fresh data on electoral bonds, which it had submitted in sealed covers to the Supreme Court and was later asked to put it in public domain.

These details are believed to be pertaining to the period before April 12, 2019. Electoral bond details after this date was made public by the poll panel last week.

The BJP encashed electoral bonds totalling Rs 6,986.5 crore; maximum Rs 2,555 crore received in 2019-20, as per the EC data.

The Trinamool Congress received Rs 1,397 crore through electoral bonds, second largest recipient after BJP, as per the EC data.

On the other hand, the Congress redeemed a total of Rs 1,334.35 crore through electoral bonds.

DMK received Rs 656.5 crore through electoral bonds, including Rs 509 crore from lottery king Santiago Martin's Future Gaming.

BJD encashed electoral bonds worth Rs 944.5 crore, YSR Congress Rs 442.8 crore, TDP Rs 181.35 crore.

Political parties had filed data on electoral bonds in sealed cover as directed by the Supreme Court's interim order dated April 12, 2019, the poll panel said in a statement.

"Data so received from political parties was deposited in the Supreme Court without opening sealed covers. In pursuance of the Supreme Court's order dated March 15, 2024, the Registry of the Supreme Court has returned physical copies along with a digitized record of the same in a pen drive in sealed cover. The Election Commission of India has today uploaded the data received in the digitized form from the registry of the Supreme Court on electoral bonds on its website," EC said.

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News Network
March 27,2024

Bengaluru: The National Investigation Agency (NIA) on Wednesday launched simultaneous raids in multiple places, including Bengaluru and Shivamogga.

Reports suggested that the ongoing raids are in connection with the Improvised Explosive Device (IED) blast in Bengaluru’s Rameshwaram Cafe on March 1. The blast had injured at least ten people as per the police report.

The Central Crime Branch (CCB) had launched an investigation alongside the NIA, and the trail of the suspect led them to Tumakuru first and subsequently to Ballari. Investigators believe that the bomb was planted by Mussavir Hussain Shazib, a handler of the Islamic State’s Shivamogga module who was aided by another IS handler called Ahmed Taahaa.

Sources in the know said that Shazib and Taahaa had stayed in Chennai for about a month between January and February using fake credentials. The names of the suspects were identified after they traced the cap worn by Shazib to a shop in a mall in Chennai. The cap, which was abandoned by the bomber in Bengaluru after the blast, was reportedly bought by Taahaa, around January-end.

As per the NIA, Shazib hails from Masjid Road in Thirthahalli, Shivamogga district, and Taahaa from Fish Market Road, Soppu Gude, Thirthahalli Rural. Both "wanted" suspects have been termed "absconders" by the NIA.

The NIA has questioned seven jailed terror suspects so far in connection with the blast. The investigation agency had also obtained seven-day custody of a jailed terror suspect named Maaz Muneer Ahmed.

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News Network
March 22,2024

IPL.jpg

The start of the world’s most lucrative cricket tournament in India is presenting investors with another big opportunity to cash in on the sport, months after the world’s most populous nation hosted the Cricket World Cup.

The eight-week long Indian Premier League begins March 22 for its 17th season. Since its inception, the fast-paced cricket tournament has become a corporate juggernaut to rival the National Football League in the US and the English Premier League in value.

Just as October’s Cricket World Cup boosted consumption in India for months, fans are expected to flock to restaurants, pubs and food delivery platforms over the duration of the tournament. This year’s IPL also coincides with general elections that will last for six weeks starting April 19, a period when companies are expecting higher food and drink sales as people flock to rallies and other events.

“There’s going to be a lot of spending,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda. “IPL, as well as the election, gives a three-month corridor with enhanced economic activity.”

Stocks in India such as McDonald’s franchise operator Westlife Foodworld Ltd. and peer Sapphire Foods India Ltd. gained ahead of the first match on Friday, as well as hotels and beverage makers. Packaged-food companies could also stand to benefit from the IPL craze, said Sachil Bobade, an analyst at investment firm Dolat Capital Market.

The IPL ecosystem was valued at $11 billion (Rs 91,721 crores) in 2023, including the value of media rights and sponsorships, according to Indian valuation consulting firm D&P Advisory.

The league is also attracting record sums of money from sponsors and broadcasters. Conglomerate Tata Group won the title sponsorship rights of the tournament in January for a record 25 billion rupees ($300 million). Billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s media venture secured the digital streaming rights in 2022 for five years for $2.7 billion, while Walt Disney Co. paid roughly the same for TV rights.

“There was a serious amount of bidding even this year,” said Vinit Karnik, head of entertainment, esports and sports at media agency GroupM South Asia. “I see growth in IPL in double digits year-on-year,” he adds.

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