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New Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season with La Nina conditions likely to set in by August-September, the IMD has said on Monday.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.

Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.

Based on data between 1951-2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference here.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is low. These conditions are favourable for the Indian southwest monsoon, he said.

Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September, Mohapatra said.

India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.

El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.

Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered for forecasting monsoon season rainfall.

The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through the differential heating of the landmass.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country's GDP.

With the Karnataka transport department extending the deadline for the installation of High Security Registration Plate (HSRP) twice--- in November last year and February, it is no longer planning to extend the same. The department ordered for the installation of HSRP before May 31.

The transport department through a notification in August last year, had mandated the installation on all the vehicles that were registered in the state prior to April 1, 2019. According to transport officials, there are nearly two crore vehicles that are supposed to get HSRP for their vehicles.

“As of now, the state has registered only 34 lakh HSRP installations, despite extending the deadline twice. From nearly 18 lakh installations since February, the numbers have almost doubled. However, there are still a large number of vehicles that have to opt for HSRP,” said C Mallikarjuna, Additional Commissioner for Transport (Enforcement).

“We will wait till May 31 to check for the total number of vehicles that fall in line. We are expecting HSRP installations to touch 75 lakh, after which we will consider an extension as the numbers indicate that people are falling in line and if some more time is given everyone will get it done. However, if we do not reach that number before the deadline, we will request the government not to extend the deadline but urge for an enforcement,” he said.

He also stated that a fine of Rs 500 will be imposed for the first time and if vehicle owners do not fall in line, it will be Rs 1,000 later until they have installed HSRP. “We will wait till the Model Code of Conduct ends and take the government’s opinion. We are going to request the government for strict enforcement if the HSRP installations are not satisfactory,” he added.

Congress workers protested outside the home of Nilesh Kumbhani, the party's candidate from Gujarat's Surat Lok Sabha seat whose nomination form was rejected due to alleged discrepancies, as he was likely to join the BJP, sources said on Tuesday.

The protest came a day after the BJP's Mukesh Dalal was declared the winner from the party stronghold following the withdrawal of all the other eight candidates in the fray.

The sources said that the protesters called Kumbhani a "traitor" and "killer of democracy", adding that he could join the BJP as early as this week.

Kumbhani's nomination form was rejected after he was unable to present even one of his three proposers before Returning Officer Sourabh Pardhi.

The BJP had raised questions about the discrepancies in the signatures of three proposers in his nomination form.

The nomination form of Suresh Padsala, the Congress' substitute candidate from Surat, was also invalidated, pushing the party out of the poll fray in the BJP stronghold.

In his order, Pardhi said the four nomination forms submitted by Kumbhani and Padsala were rejected because at first sight, discrepancies were found in the signatures of the proposers, and they did not appear genuine.

The Lok Sabha elections in the Surat seat was supposed to take place on May 7.