Inflation set to spike in UAE, other Gulf countries due to Russia-Ukraine war

News Network
May 30, 2022

Economists have warned that Inflation in the wider Middle East including the Gulf Cooperation Council countries will spike this year due to an increase in food and commodity prices after the Russia-Ukraine war.

“The UAE economy has had a strong start to 2022, with crude oil production up 12 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of this year. Survey data points to a solid expansion in non-oil sectors as well. We expect inflation to average 4.3 per cent this year from 2.3 per cent previously, significantly higher than last year’s 0.2 per cent average consumer price index,” said Emirates NBD Research in a recent quarterly report on the region.

It is projected that the inflation will ease to 2.5 per cent for the UAE next year.

While inflation in most of the other Gulf countries will also witness a surge this year, with average inflation reaching 3.0 per cent, 3.5 per cent, 2.5 per cent, 3.5 per cent and 3.0 per cent in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain, respectively.

The increase in inflation is attributed to the impact of the Ukraine-Russia war on the global food and other commodity prices as well as high crude oil prices.

James Swanston, economist for the Mena region at Capital Economics, said non-Gulf economies are more vulnerable to the fallout from the Ukraine war.

“Higher commodity prices will increase subsidy costs in North Africa, which is likely to prompt governments to cut expenditure elsewhere. At the same time, inflation will rise further and erode households’ real incomes,” he said.

He said higher commodity prices will also cause external positions to deteriorate further.

Recently, Egypt responded to this by devaluing the pound in March, and Swanston believes Cairo will need to let the currency fall further. “This will push inflation up, even more, taking it well above the central bank’s target range and prompting another 350bp of interest rate hikes (to 12.75 per cent) by year-end – this is far more tightening than most currently expect.”

James Swanston projected that inflation will increase in Saudi Arabia in the coming months due to the impact of rising global food prices.

“However, we do not expect the headline rate to rise to levels seen elsewhere in the emerging world, particularly as the government has kept a cap on local fuel prices since July last year. Inflation should peak around 2.5 per cent and then fall back to around 1.0-1.5 per cent year-on-year where it will remain throughout 2023-24. If the government does loosen fiscal policy by cutting value-added tax (VAT), this would knock inflation further down,” he added.

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News Network
October 8,2024

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In her debut electoral contest, Vinesh Phogat, a celebrated wrestler-turned-politician, has secured a decisive victory for the Indian National Congress in the Julana assembly constituency of Haryana. Phogat garnered approximately 65,080 votes, defeating Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate Captain Yogesh Kumar by a margin of over 6,000 votes. This win marks a significant turnaround for Congress, which had faced defeat in Julana for the last three assembly elections and had only won the seat four times since 1967.

Phogat's victory also saw her outpace the incumbent MLA, Amarjeet Dhanda, a Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) leader. The results of the Haryana Assembly elections were officially announced on Tuesday, October 8.

Phogat, who transitioned into politics after her wrestling career, had been disqualified from competing in the 2024 Paris Olympics gold medal match due to weight category issues. Many speculated that she had been “deliberately defeated” in the competition, while Phogat herself alleged that the Union government had failed to provide her with adequate support.

In the aftermath of her disqualification, Phogat filed an appeal with the Court of Arbitration for Sports (CAS), seeking to share the silver medal with Cuban wrestler Yusneylys Guzmán Lopez, whom she had defeated in the semi-finals. Four pro bono lawyers in Paris submitted the protest appeal on her behalf. The Indian Olympic Association (IOA) also sought more time to appoint legal representation. However, despite days of deliberation, the CAS ultimately dismissed the appeal.

On September 6, shortly after her sporting career came to an end, Phogat, along with fellow wrestler Bajrang Punia, formally joined the Congress party. Reflecting on her decision, she remarked that she had not retired from wrestling during the Jantar Mantar protests in order to inspire young girls and women. “The whole country thought I would retire during the protests because the BJP IT cell tried to paint us as troublemakers, as though we were finished and only playing politics,” Phogat stated.

Vinesh and Punia were at the forefront of protests against Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, the Wrestling Federation of India (WFI) chief and BJP MP, who faces multiple allegations of sexual harassment. The protests, which took place at Jantar Mantar in New Delhi last year, were met with significant police aggression.

During the protests, Phogat had publicly accused Singh of subjecting her to severe mental harassment, to the point where she struggled with suicidal thoughts. Despite these personal battles, she persisted, even as the Indian Olympic Association president and former athlete PT Usha accused the wrestlers of “tarnishing India’s image” during the protests.

In a candid reflection on her retirement, Phogat shared, “Many urged me not to retire, but I had to ask myself – for what purpose should I continue wrestling? There is politics everywhere. Now, I want to do politics that can bring real change, to fight for the future of our children and stand by them when it matters.”

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News Network
October 8,2024

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A Palestinian prisoners’ rights group says Israeli forces have abducted a total of 108 journalists during violent raids across the occupied West Bank and the Gaza Strip ever since the regime’s onslaught on the besieged coastal territory started more than a year ago.

The Prisoner Support and Human Rights Association, which is also known as Addameer, said in a statement on Monday that at least 58 journalists remain in Israeli custody, including six female journalists and 22 journalists from Gaza whose identities have been confirmed.

Addameer added that at least 16 of the journalists are being held under administrative detention.

An overwhelming majority of Palestinian prisoners are arrested under a quasi-judicial process known as administrative detention, under which Palestinians are initially jailed for six months. Their detentions can then be repeatedly extended for an indefinite period without charge or trial.

Neither the administrative detainees, who include women and children, nor their lawyers are allowed to see the “secret evidence” that Israeli forces say form the basis for their arrests.

Addameer noted that more than 9,000 orders of administrative detention have been issued since October 7 last year, ranging between new orders and renewals, including orders against children and women.

The report comes as another Palestinian journalist was killed in an Israeli airstrike in the northern Gaza Strip on Sunday, bringing the total death toll of journalists killed since October 7 last year to 175.

The government media office in the Gaza Strip in a statement identified the victim as Hassan Hamad, without giving details about the circumstances of his death.

“We condemn in the strongest terms the targeting, killing, and assassination of Palestinian journalists by the Israeli occupation,” it said.

The media office also called on the international community and international organizations to “deter the occupation and prosecute it in international courts for its ongoing crimes.”

Journalists operating in the Palestinian territory are faced with increased dangers as they report on the conflict amidst Israeli ground assaults and airstrikes, disrupted communications, supply shortages, and power outages.

Israel launched the war on Gaza on October 7 last year, after Palestinian resistance groups carried out a surprise retaliatory operation into the occupied territories.

So far, the Israeli war on Gaza has killed at least 41,909 Palestinians, most of them women, children, and adolescents, and injured 97,303 others.

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News Network
September 25,2024

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Israel began a third day of strikes in southern Lebanon on Wednesday, hours after Hezbollah confirmed the death of a senior commander in an airstrike on Beirut and a Lebanese minister said only Washington could help end the fighting.

Lebanese media reported that Israeli airstrikes had targeted several areas in the country’s south, beginning at around 5am, causing unspecified casualties.

Hezbollah meanwhile said it had launched a rocket targeting Mossad headquarters near Tel Aviv. Sirens had sounded in the Israeli city early on Wednesday, sending residents into bomb shelters, however the Israeli military later said it had intercepted the missile and no casualties or damage were reported.

Earlier on Wednesday, Hezbollah had confirmed that senior commander Ibrahim Qubaisi was among six people killed by an Israeli airstrike on an apartment block in the Lebanese capital Beirut on Tuesday, as Israel had claimed earlier. Israel said Qubaisi headed the group’s missile and rocket force.

Israel’s offensive since Monday morning has killed 569 people, including 50 children, and wounded 1,835 in Lebanon, health minister Firass Abiad told Al Jazeera Mubasher TV. Tuesday’s attacks came after Monday’s barrages racked up the highest death toll in any single day in Lebanon since the 15-year civil war that started in 1975.

Israel’s new offensive against Hezbollah has stoked fears that nearly a year of conflict between Israel and the militant Palestinian group Hamas in Gaza is escalating and could destabilise the Middle East. Britain urged its nationals to leave Lebanon and said it was moving 700 troops to Cyprus to help its citizens evacuate.

The UN security council said it would meet on Wednesday to discuss the conflict.

“Lebanon is at the brink. The people of Lebanon – the people of Israel – and the people of the world – cannot afford Lebanon to become another Gaza,” UN secretary general António Guterres said.

At the UN, which is holding its general assembly this week, US President Joe Biden made a plea for calm. “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest. Even if a situation has escalated, a diplomatic solution is still possible,” he said.

Lebanon’s foreign minister Abdallah Bou Habib criticised Biden’s address as “not strong, not promising” and said the US was the only country “that can really make a difference in the Middle East and with regard to Lebanon.” Washington is Israel’s longtime ally and biggest arms supplier.

The US “is the key … to our salvation,” he told an event in New York City hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Up to half a million people are estimated to have been displaced in Lebanon, said Bou Habib. He said Lebanon’s prime minister hoped to meet with US officials over the next two days.

In Lebanon, displaced families slept in shelters hastily set up in schools in Beirut and the coastal city of Sidon. With hotels quickly booked to capacity or rooms priced beyond the means of many families, those who did not find shelter slept in their cars, in parks or along the seaside.

Fatima Chehab, who came with her three daughters from the area of Nabatieh, said her family had been displaced twice in quick succession.

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