Inflation set to spike in UAE, other Gulf countries due to Russia-Ukraine war

News Network
May 30, 2022

Economists have warned that Inflation in the wider Middle East including the Gulf Cooperation Council countries will spike this year due to an increase in food and commodity prices after the Russia-Ukraine war.

“The UAE economy has had a strong start to 2022, with crude oil production up 12 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of this year. Survey data points to a solid expansion in non-oil sectors as well. We expect inflation to average 4.3 per cent this year from 2.3 per cent previously, significantly higher than last year’s 0.2 per cent average consumer price index,” said Emirates NBD Research in a recent quarterly report on the region.

It is projected that the inflation will ease to 2.5 per cent for the UAE next year.

While inflation in most of the other Gulf countries will also witness a surge this year, with average inflation reaching 3.0 per cent, 3.5 per cent, 2.5 per cent, 3.5 per cent and 3.0 per cent in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain, respectively.

The increase in inflation is attributed to the impact of the Ukraine-Russia war on the global food and other commodity prices as well as high crude oil prices.

James Swanston, economist for the Mena region at Capital Economics, said non-Gulf economies are more vulnerable to the fallout from the Ukraine war.

“Higher commodity prices will increase subsidy costs in North Africa, which is likely to prompt governments to cut expenditure elsewhere. At the same time, inflation will rise further and erode households’ real incomes,” he said.

He said higher commodity prices will also cause external positions to deteriorate further.

Recently, Egypt responded to this by devaluing the pound in March, and Swanston believes Cairo will need to let the currency fall further. “This will push inflation up, even more, taking it well above the central bank’s target range and prompting another 350bp of interest rate hikes (to 12.75 per cent) by year-end – this is far more tightening than most currently expect.”

James Swanston projected that inflation will increase in Saudi Arabia in the coming months due to the impact of rising global food prices.

“However, we do not expect the headline rate to rise to levels seen elsewhere in the emerging world, particularly as the government has kept a cap on local fuel prices since July last year. Inflation should peak around 2.5 per cent and then fall back to around 1.0-1.5 per cent year-on-year where it will remain throughout 2023-24. If the government does loosen fiscal policy by cutting value-added tax (VAT), this would knock inflation further down,” he added.

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News Network
November 11,2024

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The Manipur Kuki MLAs have released a statement calling out Solicitor General Tushar Mehta's 'lies' in the Supreme Court. In a joint statement, the MLAs, including those from the Bharatiya Janata Party, said they had not had any meeting with the Chief Minister since May 3, 2023, nor did they intend to meet him in the future as “he was the mastermind behind the violence”.

As per the MLAs, the SG lied about state CM N Biren Singh speaking to Kuki MLAs to control the situation there, in order to halt a Supreme Court probe into the leaked tapes which allege that Singh has been complicit in the violence that broke out between Kukis and Meitis there.

"We...clarify that we have never had any meeting with Chief Minister, Shri N. Biren Singh since May 3, 2023, nor have any intention to meet him in future as he is the mastermind behind the violence and ethnic cleansing of our people from the Imphal valley, which is continuing till today, the latest being the brutal killing and burning of Mrs Zosangkim Hmar on November 7, 2024," the letter read, while condemning the recent 'barbaric' killing of the woman there, and noting the SG's assertion is 'tantamount' to misleading the top court.

“We, the undersigned ten MLAs, have come to know that during the Supreme Court hearing held on November 8, 2024, the Solicitor General of India submitted that ‘CM is meeting all Kuki MLAs and trying to bring the situation down to get peace’. In this connection, we hereby categorically state that this submission is a blatant lie and tantamount to misleading the Hon’ble Supreme Court of India,” the statement said.

The Supreme Court, while hearing a petition by a Kuki organisation, asked that it submit audio tapes to substantiate its claim that the Chief Minister was instrumental in inciting and organising violence in the northeastern State.

Solicitor-General Tushar Mehta orally informed the court that the Chief Minister was meeting all the Kuki-Zo MLAs and that peace in the State had come at a huge cost.

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News Network
November 12,2024

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The UN humanitarian coordinator for Lebanon has warned that the “picture of life in Lebanon remains grim,” highlighting an "alarming" level of human suffering and significant humanitarian consequences due to the ongoing Israeli carnage.

Imran Riza, the UN Deputy Special Coordinator and Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Lebanon (UNSCOL), provided a stark overview of the Arab country's dire circumstances in a statement released on Monday.

“The current picture of life in Lebanon remains grim. Yesterday, airstrikes reportedly killed 23 people, including seven children, in the village of Aalmat in Mount Lebanon,” Riza said on X.

An airstrike in the city of Tyre on the same day resulted in the tragic deaths of five siblings from a single family, all of whom had special needs, according to his statement.

He added that in the last week, Israeli airstrikes have killed at least 241 individuals and left 642 others injured in Lebanon, as reported by the Ministry of Health.

“In the past month, more than 185,000 people have fled their homes in their search for safety within the country, bringing the total to over 870,000 people internally displaced,” Riza said

The UN official highlighted that numerous individuals, including the elderly and those with health issues, are staying behind while witnessing the ruins of their ancestral homes.

He urged for the swift safeguarding of civilian people and infrastructure, emphasizing the necessity to uphold international humanitarian law and end the ongoing violence.

Lebanon’s National News Agency reported that Israeli forces bombed a house in the town of Maydoun in Bekaa on Monday night, killing three people and destroying the house.

Earlier, Israel bombed the northern town of Ain Yaaqoub, killing at least 14 people.

The killings came as Israeli military continued to pound Lebanon, bombing shops selling electrical appliances in the southern city of Tyre and carrying out air raids on the towns of Shamshtar in eastern Baalbek and Roumine in southern Nabatieh.

Lebanon’s Ministry of Health said Israeli attacks killed at least 54 people across the country on Monday.

Israel’s merciless attacks continue despite calls from the UN Security Council for an immediate ceasefire and directives from the International Court of Justice urging measures to prevent genocide and alleviate the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza and Lebanon.

In Lebanon, at least 3,243 people have been killed and 14,134 others wounded in Israeli attacks since the war on Gaza began on October 7, 2023.

The Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah opened a support front for Palestinians in Gaza only a day after the Israeli regime unleashed its genocidal war on the besieged territory.

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News Network
November 21,2024

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After the US prosecutors charged Gautam Adani with bribery and fraud, Congress reiterated its call for a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) probe into the transactions of the Adani group, and hit out at Prime Minister Narendra Modi, alleging an "internal nexus" between him and "his favourite businessman."

Senior Congress leader Jairam Ramesh said the indictment of Gautam Adani and others by the US Securities and Exchange Commission validates his party’s call for a Joint Parliamentary Committee investigation.

The Congress has been pushing for the probe since January 2023, raising concerns over alleged irregularities involving Adani and his business dealings, said Ramesh.

Ramesh referred to the party’s “Hum Adani ke Hain” series, where 100 questions were raised about the alleged scams and the links between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Gautam Adani.
He noted that the questions remain unanswered, reiterating the need for accountability in the matter.

The US prosecutors have charged Adani with deceiving investors by concealing information about his firm's solar energy project in India, which allegedly involved bribery.

Adani has been charged with securities fraud and conspiracy, according to an indictment unsealed on Wednesday. The case focusses on an agreement between Adani Green Energy Ltd. and another organisation to supply 12 gigawatts of solar power to the Indian government.

'BETRAYAL OF INDIAN INVESTORS'

Congress leader Pawan Khera described the allegations against Gautam Adani and his conglomerate as a “betrayal of Indian investors.”

Taking to X, Khera outlined the US charges, including claims that Adani’s group bribed Indian government officials between 2020 and 2024 to secure contracts. Citing media reports, he also pointed out that Gautam Adani personally met a government official to advance the scheme.

Khera referred to a March 2024 incident where the Adani Group allegedly misled the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange, calling it a “grave violation of investor trust.”

He further highlighted a March 2023 FBI raid on the premises of Sagar Adani, Gautam Adani’s nephew, where electronic devices were seized as part of the investigation.

'SEBI NOT ABLE TO PROVE ANY CHARGES AGAINST ADANI'

Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Priyanka Chaturvedi criticised central probe agencies following US charges against Gautam Adani and others in an alleged bribery case linked to solar energy contracts.

Chaturvedi raised concerns about corporate governance and regulatory oversight in the country. “They talk about corporate governance, responsibility, and accountability. The industrialists should be asked to follow the rules and regulations, but even the agencies were defending him. The SEBI has not yet been able to prove charges against him,” she said, pointing to what she viewed as failures in ensuring accountability.

'BROUGHT DISREPUTE TO INDIA'

On US charges against Gautam Adani, AAP leader Sanjay Singh called for a probe against the industrialist. He said that the probe should be conducted by an investigation agency under the Supreme Court.

"Adani Group has brought disrepute to India. This is a very serious matter. The PM of India should come forward and answer this. All the pending matters against Adani should be probed by an investigation agency under Supreme Court monitoring, and all the corruption done by him, within and outside the country, should come out before the country and action should be taken against him," he said.

BJP DFENDS

BJP IT cell chief Amit Malviya responded sharply to the Opposition’s criticism regarding allegations involving Adani Green Energy and US-based Azure Power. He pointed out that the charges in the indictment are only allegations and emphasised, “The defendants are presumed innocent unless and until proven guilty.”

Malviya argued that the crux of the case concerns agreements to supply 12 GW of power to the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI), contingent on SECI securing power purchase agreements with state electricity distribution companies (SDCs).

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