Inflation set to spike in UAE, other Gulf countries due to Russia-Ukraine war

News Network
May 30, 2022

Economists have warned that Inflation in the wider Middle East including the Gulf Cooperation Council countries will spike this year due to an increase in food and commodity prices after the Russia-Ukraine war.

“The UAE economy has had a strong start to 2022, with crude oil production up 12 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of this year. Survey data points to a solid expansion in non-oil sectors as well. We expect inflation to average 4.3 per cent this year from 2.3 per cent previously, significantly higher than last year’s 0.2 per cent average consumer price index,” said Emirates NBD Research in a recent quarterly report on the region.

It is projected that the inflation will ease to 2.5 per cent for the UAE next year.

While inflation in most of the other Gulf countries will also witness a surge this year, with average inflation reaching 3.0 per cent, 3.5 per cent, 2.5 per cent, 3.5 per cent and 3.0 per cent in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain, respectively.

The increase in inflation is attributed to the impact of the Ukraine-Russia war on the global food and other commodity prices as well as high crude oil prices.

James Swanston, economist for the Mena region at Capital Economics, said non-Gulf economies are more vulnerable to the fallout from the Ukraine war.

“Higher commodity prices will increase subsidy costs in North Africa, which is likely to prompt governments to cut expenditure elsewhere. At the same time, inflation will rise further and erode households’ real incomes,” he said.

He said higher commodity prices will also cause external positions to deteriorate further.

Recently, Egypt responded to this by devaluing the pound in March, and Swanston believes Cairo will need to let the currency fall further. “This will push inflation up, even more, taking it well above the central bank’s target range and prompting another 350bp of interest rate hikes (to 12.75 per cent) by year-end – this is far more tightening than most currently expect.”

James Swanston projected that inflation will increase in Saudi Arabia in the coming months due to the impact of rising global food prices.

“However, we do not expect the headline rate to rise to levels seen elsewhere in the emerging world, particularly as the government has kept a cap on local fuel prices since July last year. Inflation should peak around 2.5 per cent and then fall back to around 1.0-1.5 per cent year-on-year where it will remain throughout 2023-24. If the government does loosen fiscal policy by cutting value-added tax (VAT), this would knock inflation further down,” he added.

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News Network
September 28,2024

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The Lebanese Hezbollah resistance movement has confirmed the assassination of its secretary general Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in massive Israeli airstrikes targeting residential buildings in southern Beirut on Friday.

“His Eminence, the Master of Resistance, the righteous servant, has joined his Lord and His pleasure as a great martyr — an outstanding, courageous, wise, and insightful leader — joining the ranks of the radiant martyrs of Karbala in the divine journey of faith, following in the footsteps of the prophets and martyr imams,” Hezbollah said in a statement on Saturday afternoon.

“The leadership of Hezbollah vows to the highest, most sacred, and dearest martyr in our journey, filled with sacrifices and martyrs, to continue its struggle against the enemy, supporting Gaza and Palestine, and defending Lebanon and its steadfast, honorable people,” it added.

Since Friday afternoon, Israeli warplanes have conducted over 30 airstrikes, targeting residential buildings in Burj al-Barajneh, Kafaat, Choueifat, Hadath, al-Laylaki, and Mreijeh, with local media reporting upwards of 300 casualties as a result of the aggression.

Footage broadcast by al-Manar television channel from the crowded area of Beirut’s Dahiyeh shows flattened buildings, streets filled with rubble and clouds of smoke and dust above the area.

Martyrs’ Square, Beirut’s central public area, was crowded with exhausted and anxious families sheltering outdoors.

The recent attacks are part of the Israeli regime’s intensified assault on Lebanon, which has become more deadly this week, resulting in over 700 deaths nationwide since Monday.

The new attacks came less than a week after the Tel Aviv regime killed 38 people, including three children and seven women as well as senior Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil in an attack on a residential building in a southern Beirut suburb.

Earlier on Saturday, Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei said the brutal attacks by the “rabid Zionist dog” on Lebanon revealed the shortsightedness and foolish policies of Israeli officials, calling on all Muslims to unite behind Lebanese people and Hezbollah.

“The Zionist criminals need to know that they are far too weak to be able to inflict any significant damage on the solid structure of Lebanon’s Hezbollah. All the resistance forces in the region stand with and support Hezbollah,” the Leader said in a statement on Saturday.

“The Lebanese have not forgotten that there was a time when the soldiers of the occupying regime were advancing toward Beirut, and Hezbollah stopped them, and made Lebanon proud. Today too, by the grace and power of God, Lebanon will make the transgressing, malicious enemy regret its actions,” Ayatollah Khamenei noted. 

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News Network
October 4,2024

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Moscow, Oct 4: Russia's Foreign Ministry said on Friday that a decision to remove the Taliban from a list of terrorist organisations had been "taken at the highest level", the state TASS news agency reported.

The decision needs to be followed up with various legal procedures in order to make it a reality, President Vladimir Putin's special representative on Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, was quoted as saying.

Putin said in July that Russia considered Afghanistan's Taliban movement an ally in the fight against terrorism.

Russia has been slowly building ties with the Taliban since it seized power in Afghanistan in August 2021 as U.S.-led forces withdrew after 20 years of war but the movement is still officially outlawed in Russia.

No country has formally recognised the Taliban as the country's legitimate leadership, although China and the UAE have accepted its ambassadors.

Russia added the Taliban to its list of terrorist organisations in 2003. Removing it would be an important step by Moscow towards normalising relations with Afghanistan.

The Taliban's acting foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi said in a speech in Moscow that recent decisions by Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan to remove the former insurgents from a list of banned groups was a welcome step.

"We also appreciate the positive remarks by the high-ranking officials of the Russian Federation in this regard and hope to see more effective steps soon," he said.

In separate comments on Friday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow was convinced of the need to maintain "pragmatic dialogue" with the current Afghan government.

"It is obvious that it is impossible to solve problems or even discuss an Afghan settlement without Kabul," Lavrov said.

"Moscow will continue its course on developing political, trade and economic ties with Kabul," he added, speaking at a meeting in Moscow with Muttaqi and representatives of neighbouring countries.

While he did not mention the Taliban by name, he praised the current Afghan leadership for its efforts to curb drug production and fight Islamic State, which is outlawed in Russia.

Muttaqi said that countries in the region should cooperate against the Islamic State, which he said had established training centres outside Afghanistan.

Lavrov said the United States should return confiscated assets to Afghanistan and the West should acknowledge responsibility for the post-conflict reconstruction of the country.

Lavrov also called for an increase in humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, and said Russia would keep sending it food and essential goods.

Russia has a troubled history in Afghanistan, where the Soviet army invaded in 1979 to support a pro-Moscow government but withdrew 10 years later after sustaining heavy casualties at the hands of mujahideen fighters.

Russia and its post-Soviet neighbours have suffered recurrent attacks from Islamist militant groups linked to Afghanistan - most recently in March, when 145 people were killed in an attack claimed by Islamic State at a concert hall near Moscow.

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News Network
October 2,2024

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Israel will launch a “significant retaliation” to Iran’s missile attack within days that could target oil production facilities inside Iran, Axios reports citing Israeli officials.

The Israeli military late on Tuesday said Iran launched around 180 missiles at its territory, most of which were intercepted.

Iranian media carried online footage of what they said were missiles being fired, which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said were targeting “three military bases” around Tel Aviv and other bases.

The Revolutionary Guards said “90 percent” of the missiles “hit their targets” late Tuesday.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to hit back following the attack.

“Iran made a big mistake tonight - and it will pay for it,” he said at the outset of an emergency political security cabinet meeting late on Tuesday, according to a statement.

Washington said it would work with longtime ally Israel to ensure Iran faced “severe consequences” for Tuesday’s attack.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant late on Tuesday and said Washington was “well-postured” to defend its interests in the Middle East, the Pentagon said in a statement.

“The minister and I expressed mutual appreciation for the coordinated defense of Israel against nearly 200 ballistic missiles launched by Iran and committed to remain in close contact,” Austin said separately in a post on X.

US Navy warships fired about a dozen interceptors against Iranian missiles headed toward Israel, the Pentagon said. Britain said its forces played a part “in attempts to prevent further escalation in the Middle East”, without elaborating.

The Pentagon said Tuesday’s airstrikes by Iran were about twice the size of April’s assault by Iran on Israel.

A painful response

Israel activated air defenses against Iran’s bombardment on Tuesday and most missiles were intercepted “by Israel and a defensive coalition led by the United States,” Israeli Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said in a video on X, adding: “Iran’s attack is a severe and dangerous escalation.”

Iran’s forces on Tuesday used hypersonic Fattah missiles for the first time, and 90 percent of its missiles successfully hit their targets in Israel, the Revolutionary Guards said.

In a statement on state media, the general staff of Iran’s armed forces said any Israeli response would be met with “vast destruction” of the latter’s infrastructure.

It also said it would target the regional assets of any Israeli ally that got involved.

Fears that Iran and the US could be drawn into a regional war have risen with Israel’s growing assault on Lebanon in the past two weeks, including the start of a ground operation there on Monday, while its conflict in the Gaza Strip is a year old.

US President Joe Biden expressed full US support for Israel and described Iran’s attack as “ineffective.” Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, backed Biden’s stance and said the United States would not hesitate to defend its interests against Iran.

“We will act. Iran will soon feel the consequences of their actions. The response will be painful,” Israel’s UN Ambassador Danny Danon told reporters.

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