Modi’s ‘Stay at Home’ Call May Deepen India’s Economic Slowdown

News Network
March 21, 2020

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

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News Network
November 29,2024

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The Israeli military has conducted fresh attacks on Lebanon in violation of a ceasefire agreement with the Hezbollah resistance movement and ramped up its deadly airstrikes on the Gaza Strip.

In a statement posted Thursday on X, the Lebanese army said Israeli occupation forces several times violated the truce deal just after it went into effect, and the following day.

"These breaches included aerial violations and attacks on Lebanese territory using various weapons," it added.

The Israeli military confirmed its Thursday aerial assault on southern Lebanon, adding that its forces had also opened fire towards the people who were driving to their homes in the area.

Earlier, Lebanese media reported that at least two people were wounded after Israeli tank fire hit five towns and some agricultural fields in the country's south.

"The Israeli enemy is attacking those returning to the border villages," Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah said. "There are violations today by Israel, even in this form."

Israel was forced to accept a ceasefire with Hezbollah after suffering heavy losses following more than 14 months of fighting and failing to achieve its goals in its aggression on Lebanon.

The truce agreement, brokered by the United States and France, came into effect before dawn on Wednesday. It will last for 60 days in the hope of reaching a permanent cessation of hostilities.

At least 3,961 people were killed and 16,520 others injured in Israeli attacks on Lebanon.

Hezbollah opened a support front for Palestinians in Gaza only a day after Israel unleashed its war against the besieged territory in October 2023, launching numerous retaliatory attacks against Israeli targets in the occupied territories. 

In a statement that followed the ceasefire, Hezbollah vowed to continue resisting Israel and monitoring the occupation army’s withdrawal from south Lebanon “with [our] hands on the trigger” in defense of Lebanon’s sovereignty.

Hezbollah further empathized that its fighters “remain fully equipped to deal with the aspirations and assaults of the Israeli enemy."

It also reaffirmed its commitment to the Palestinian cause, noting that it will continue the path of resistance with even greater determination.

Israeli strikes on Gaza kill 42

Across the Gaza Strip, at least 42 people were killed in Israeli attacks on Thursday. 

Reports said Israeli forces stepped up their bombardment of Gaza's central areas and tanks pushed deeper into the Palestinian territory’s north and south.

Since October 2023, the Tel Aviv regime has so far killed at least 44,330 Palestinians and injured 104,933 others in its brutal Gaza onslaught.

The head of the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) said at least 70 percent of those killed in Israeli attacks on Gaza were women and children.

Philippe Lazzarini said the ongoing Israeli offensive in the northern edge of Gaza has uprooted 130,000 people over the past seven weeks.

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News Network
November 21,2024

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After the US prosecutors charged Gautam Adani with bribery and fraud, Congress reiterated its call for a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) probe into the transactions of the Adani group, and hit out at Prime Minister Narendra Modi, alleging an "internal nexus" between him and "his favourite businessman."

Senior Congress leader Jairam Ramesh said the indictment of Gautam Adani and others by the US Securities and Exchange Commission validates his party’s call for a Joint Parliamentary Committee investigation.

The Congress has been pushing for the probe since January 2023, raising concerns over alleged irregularities involving Adani and his business dealings, said Ramesh.

Ramesh referred to the party’s “Hum Adani ke Hain” series, where 100 questions were raised about the alleged scams and the links between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Gautam Adani.
He noted that the questions remain unanswered, reiterating the need for accountability in the matter.

The US prosecutors have charged Adani with deceiving investors by concealing information about his firm's solar energy project in India, which allegedly involved bribery.

Adani has been charged with securities fraud and conspiracy, according to an indictment unsealed on Wednesday. The case focusses on an agreement between Adani Green Energy Ltd. and another organisation to supply 12 gigawatts of solar power to the Indian government.

'BETRAYAL OF INDIAN INVESTORS'

Congress leader Pawan Khera described the allegations against Gautam Adani and his conglomerate as a “betrayal of Indian investors.”

Taking to X, Khera outlined the US charges, including claims that Adani’s group bribed Indian government officials between 2020 and 2024 to secure contracts. Citing media reports, he also pointed out that Gautam Adani personally met a government official to advance the scheme.

Khera referred to a March 2024 incident where the Adani Group allegedly misled the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange, calling it a “grave violation of investor trust.”

He further highlighted a March 2023 FBI raid on the premises of Sagar Adani, Gautam Adani’s nephew, where electronic devices were seized as part of the investigation.

'SEBI NOT ABLE TO PROVE ANY CHARGES AGAINST ADANI'

Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Priyanka Chaturvedi criticised central probe agencies following US charges against Gautam Adani and others in an alleged bribery case linked to solar energy contracts.

Chaturvedi raised concerns about corporate governance and regulatory oversight in the country. “They talk about corporate governance, responsibility, and accountability. The industrialists should be asked to follow the rules and regulations, but even the agencies were defending him. The SEBI has not yet been able to prove charges against him,” she said, pointing to what she viewed as failures in ensuring accountability.

'BROUGHT DISREPUTE TO INDIA'

On US charges against Gautam Adani, AAP leader Sanjay Singh called for a probe against the industrialist. He said that the probe should be conducted by an investigation agency under the Supreme Court.

"Adani Group has brought disrepute to India. This is a very serious matter. The PM of India should come forward and answer this. All the pending matters against Adani should be probed by an investigation agency under Supreme Court monitoring, and all the corruption done by him, within and outside the country, should come out before the country and action should be taken against him," he said.

BJP DFENDS

BJP IT cell chief Amit Malviya responded sharply to the Opposition’s criticism regarding allegations involving Adani Green Energy and US-based Azure Power. He pointed out that the charges in the indictment are only allegations and emphasised, “The defendants are presumed innocent unless and until proven guilty.”

Malviya argued that the crux of the case concerns agreements to supply 12 GW of power to the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI), contingent on SECI securing power purchase agreements with state electricity distribution companies (SDCs).

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News Network
November 29,2024

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New DelhiI: The Supreme Court on Friday asked the Sambhal Shahi Jama Masjid committee to approach the Allahabad High Court and told the district court not to act until then upon a survey ordered on a claim of the mosque having built on a pre-existing temple.

A bench of Chief Justice of India Sanjiv Khanna and Sanjay Kumar directed Uttar Pradesh to maintain peace and harmony in the area, where four protesters were killed during the heavy stone pelting. The court also ordered the survey report of the advocate commissioner's report should be kept in sealed cover.

"We don't want anything to happen in the meanwhile...Let them (Shahi Jama Masjid committee) exercise appropriate remedies. We will keep this pending," the bench said.

Advocate Vishnu Shankar Jain, appearing for plaintiff Hari Shankar Jain and others submitted the next date of hearing has been fixed for January 8 before the civil judge (senior division).

Senior advocate Huzefa Ahmadi, appearing for the petitioner committee, contended the order is capable of great public mischief. He said as of 10 such suits are pending across the country where the survey is sought to be conducted.

"We hope and trust the trial court will not take any proceedings...We have not expressed any opinion on merits," the bench said, fixing the matter for consideration in the week commencing on January 6.

In case any revision application is filed, it should be heard within three days before the High Court, the bench ordered.

At the outset, the bench said it had some reservations with the order passed by the Civil Judge (senior division) on November 19.

The court told the Uttar Pradesh government represented by Additional Solicitor General K M Nataraj that the district administration has to remain neutral and maintain peace in the area.

The court directed the plaintiff not to file any papers.

It also ordered the advocate commissioner's report should be kept in a sealed cover.

The petitioner committee questioned the validity of the survey ordered within a short period, triggering violence in the area and leading to the death of four protestors.

The plea filed by the Committee of Management, Shahi Jama Masjid, Sambhal claimed "the hot haste" in which the survey was allowed and conducted all within a day and suddenly another survey was conducted after a couple of days with a notice of barely six hours that had given rise to widespread communal tensions and threatened the secular and democratic fabric of the nation.

The survey was ordered by a civil judge (senior division) on a suit filed by advocate Hari Shankar Jain and others.

According to the plaintiffs, Shahi Jama Masjid at Chandausi was built by Mughal emperor Babar in 1526 after demolishing the Shri Harihar temple.

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