Karnataka Exit Polls show it’s advantage Congress; hung verdict not ruled out

Bengaluru, May 10: At least ten exit polls indicated that the Congress is on the cusp of coming to power while the BJP maintained that the game is still on in Karnataka where voting concluded Wednesday in what was a bitterly-fought election.

Two exit polls gave Congress a clear majority - the India Today-Axis My India said the party will register a thumping victory with 122-140 seats against BJP’s 62-80 and the News24 - Today's Chanakya projection was 120 seats for the DK Shivakumar-led party and 92 for the incumbent Basavaraj Bommai-led government. 

Only one exit poll - News Nation - gave BJP 114 seats. 

Seven other exit polls showed Congress as the single-largest party with the likelihood of a fractured mandate looming.

All exit polls have predicted a major climbdown for the HD Deve Gowda-led JD(S), which is projected to win anywhere between 12 and 32 seats. The space JD(S) is shown to have ceded is likely to be occupied by Congress, which is one way of explaining its gains apart from benefits of the anti-incumbency against BJP. 

However, exit polls have often got it wrong. In 2018, for example, Axis My India's prediction was 106-118 for Congress and 79-92 for BJP. But BJP ended up getting 104 and Congress 78.

Soon after polling concluded, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi thanked party workers and electors. “I want to thank the Babbar Sher workers and leaders of Congress for a well-run, dignified and solid people-oriented campaign. Thank you to the people of Karnataka for coming out in large numbers to vote for a progressive future,” he said. 

Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai, however, insisted that the BJP is coming to power. “Our ground report says we'll get a complete majority,” he said, pointing out that no exit poll is accurate. “There'll be 5-10% variation and none of the exit polls are consistent,” he added. 

Earlier in the day, Congress general secretary Randeep Singh Surjewala claimed that high voter turnout was “a very positive sign” and that it depicted anti-incumbency against BJP. 

“It’s the other way around,” Bommai said. “A high voter turnout is always better for BJP not Congress. This shows a lot of people in urban areas who didn’t vote earlier have come out and voted for BJP,” he claimed.