A few prominent Indian cities that lie near the sea may get submerged in the next 28 years due to the rise in water level, a study has revealed.
According to the analysis by RMSI, a global risk management firm, some critical properties and road networks in Mumbai, Kochi, Mangaluru, Chennai, Vishakapatnam, and Thiruvananthapuram will be drowned by 2050 because of the rise in sea level.
The analysis by has found that Haji Ali dargah, Jawahar Lal Nehru Port Trust, Western Express Highway, Bandra-Worli Sea-link,and Queen’s Necklace on Marine drive, all in Mumbai , are at risk of submergence.
RMSI considered findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s sixth assessment report ‘Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis’ released in August last year; various publications based on the IPCC report , the latest climate change data, and its own models to find out possible impact on the Indian coastline.
Six coastal cities of India were considered for this analysis. RMSI’s experts created a high-resolution Digital Terrain Model (topography) for the coastline of the identified cities. They then used a coastal flood model to map the cities’ inundation levels based on various sea-level rise forecasts.
IPCC has projected that the sea level around India will rise significantly by 2050. ‘Assessment of climate change over the Indian region’ a report of the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) also said that sea-level rise in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) occurred at a rate of 1.06–1.75 mm per year during 1874–2004 and has accelerated to 3.3 mm per year in the last two and a half decades (1993–2017), which is comparable to the current rate of global mean sea-level rise.
The moderate emissions (RCP 4.5) scenario of IPCC projects that steric sea level (variation in the ocean volume due to density changes) of the north Indian Ocean will rise by approximately 300 mm (a foot) relative to the average values from 1986 to 2005, the MoES report said. The corresponding projection for the global mean rise is approximately 180 mm.
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