PM Modi’s goal of a $5 trillion economy by 2025 is at risk

Agencies
September 20, 2019

Sept 20: India’s slowdown and a simmering shadow banking crisis is putting Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s goal of crafting a $5 trillion economy by 2025 at risk.

The nation entered 2019 as the world’s sixth-biggest economy poised to become the fifth. Instead, it has slipped a notch to seventh place as a collapse in consumption slowed gross domestic product growth to the weakest in six years. External shocks from trade wars to surging oil prices are exacerbating that pain.

Troubled by the grim prospects, the central bank has lowered interest rates to a nine-year low and Governor Shaktikanta Das wants other stakeholders -- from the government to banks to the private sector -- to step up. But with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman facing lower revenue prospects that threaten her budget gap goal, the heavy lifting on stimulus appears to lie with the Reserve Bank of India.

Das may be able to ease a financing squeeze, but it’ll take delivery on big bang reforms to unlock the productivity gains needed to power the economy toward Modi’s goals. While his return to office this year with a bigger mandate stoked expectations among investors for bolder reforms, that hope is fading 100 days into his second term as global investors head for the exit.

Unemployment at a 45-year high has hurt demand for everything from soaps to 7-cent cookies, while car sales have slumped the most on record and new investments have been sluggish as a lingering shadow banking crisis curbs lending. That’s caused growth to decelerate for five straight quarters to 5% in the three months to June -- the weakest since March 2013 -- and well below the 8% plus annual expansion needed to achieve the goal.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

“We expect the first-term reforms of the Modi government, including a clean-up of the banking sector, a new bankruptcy law, and a new indirect tax structure, to mark a transition to a faster-growth trajectory. These should lift potential growth to 8% from around 7.4% now. At the same time, we expect a recovery in actual growth, picking up from an estimated 6.2% in fiscal 2020 to 8.5% in fiscal 2025."

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

“For the economy to reach $5 trillion, it will take the types of reform that were long promised: massive reductions in regulations, streamlining of labor laws, privatization of state entities, investments in infrastructure," said Vivek Wadhwa, a distinguished fellow and professor at Carnegie Mellon University’s College of Engineering at Silicon Valley. “Yet little happened," he said.

That laundry list needs to be implemented quickly as India, according to most economists, faces a structural as well as a cyclical slowdown. New measures announced so far by the government to bolster growth are seen falling short of addressing the pain points.

Underpinning the target of $5 trillion is the government’s forecast of 8% average GDP growth, according to Shilan Shah, senior India economist with Capital Economics in Singapore. “That is setting a very high bar," he said.

Oil Prices

Volatile oil prices following the attack on an oil facility in Saudi Arabia are an added risk to the economy that imports 80% of its crude oil needs, while slowing global growth spawned by trade tensions have subdued demand for its exports.

“There is clearly a demand recession going on right now," said Girija Pande, chairman of Singapore-based Apex Avalon Consulting Pte. and a former CEO of Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. “One has to boost aggregate demand and one of the ways of doing that is by lowering rates."

Another way is by attracting large dollops of foreign investments into fresh projects and be part of trading blocs like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. While India has jumped in the ease of doing business rankings, it has not been enough to attract significant foreign capital to become part of global supply chains despite some initial hopes that businesses might relocate to shield themselves from the ongoing U.S.-China trade war.

While Modi has seen through far-reaching reforms -- giving RBI an inflation targeting mandate, introducing a nationwide consumption tax and passing an insolvency law -- in his first term, he’s fallen short of overhauling the banking system. Besides, large parts of the economy are yet to recover from his decision to ban high-value bills in 2016.

“Investors should await clarity in the coming months on what steps the government will take to ease labor laws, reform the banking system and privatize state-owned enterprises," said Amitabh Dubey, an analyst at TS Lombard.

“But at the same time they should be prepared for a continuation of past policies: namely, a mix of reform, state control and populism."

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.
News Network
November 10,2024

gazajournalists.jpg

The media office in the Gaza Strip, where the Israeli regime has been waging a genocidal war since last October, says as many as 188 Palestinian journalists have been killed since the onset of the brutal military onslaught.

The office provided the figure on Saturday, naming four journalists as the most recent victims of the onslaught.

It identified the foursome as Zahraa Mohammad Abu Sukheil, Ahmad Mohammad Abu Sukheil, Mustafa Khadr Bahar, and Abdel Rahman Khadr Bahar.

The office said it “strongly condemns the targeting, killing, and assassination of Palestinian journalists by the Israeli occupation and holds it fully responsible for committing this heinous crime.”

“We call on the international community, international organizations, and those involved in journalistic work worldwide to take action against the occupation, pursue it in international courts for its ongoing crimes, and pressure it to halt the genocide and the targeted killings of Palestinian journalists,” it said.

Earlier in the day, the office said the Israeli regime had bombed the tents sheltering journalists and displaced persons at the al-Aqsa Martyrs' Hospital in the city of Deir al-Balah in central Gaza for the ninth consecutive time.

The atrocity that claimed the lives of two people and injured 26 others came as part of “the genocidal crimes committed by the Israeli occupation army against hospitals, civilians, and displaced persons,” it said.

The media office held the regime and the United States, its biggest ally, as well as other countries aiding the genocide fully responsible for such systematic crimes.

At least 43,552 Palestinians, mostly women and children, have been killed and 102,765 others wounded since the launch of the war that followed a retaliatory operation by Gaza’s resistance groups.

The fatalities include 44 people, who were killed across the coastal sliver, in the most recent phase of the military onslaught.

As many as 24 of the victims were killed in the northern part of the territory, where the regime has markedly intensified its deadly attacks for weeks.

They included an eight-year-old child and a five-year-old one, who lost their lives after Israeli warplanes targeted a group of minors filling up jerry cans with water alongside their mother at the Jabalia Refugee camp.

Gaza’s heath ministry, meanwhile, said a number of victims remained under the rubble and in the streets following Israeli airstrikes, saying ambulances and civil defense teams could not reach them due to the sheer extent of the destruction caused by the raids and obstruction caused by the regime.

Also on Saturday, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) report, a United Nations-backed assessment, warned that famine was looming in northern Gaza amid escalated Israeli aggression and the regime’s near-total siege of the targeted areas.

The alert from the Famine Review Committee warned of "an imminent and substantial likelihood of famine occurring, due to the rapidly deteriorating situation in the Gaza Strip."

On October 17, the body projected that the number of people in Gaza facing "catastrophic" food insecurity between November and April 2025 would reach 345,000, or 16 percent of the population.

The IPC report classified that figure as Phase 5 -- a situation when "starvation, death, destitution, and extremely critical acute malnutrition levels are evident."

The Israeli military, however, questioned the report's credibility.

"To date, all assessments by the IPC have proven incorrect and inconsistent with the situation on the ground," the army said in a statement, denouncing "partial, biased data and superficial sources with vested interests."

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.
News Network
November 4,2024

In a tragic turn of events, a young spectator lost his life during a bull-taming event, Kobbari Hori, at Chigalli in Mundgod taluk, Uttara Kannada, on Saturday. 

Parameshwar Siddappa Harijan, aged 22, was fatally gored by a marauding bull during the event, which had drawn large crowds as part of the Deepavali festival celebrations.

With thousands of spectators lining the path to witness the action, the event took a horrific turn when the bull charged directly at Parameshwar, inflicting severe injuries. 

Despite efforts to rush him to the hospital, Parameshwar tragically succumbed to his wounds on the way.

In response to the fatal accident, another bull-taming event scheduled for the evening in Mundgod town was promptly cancelled, as shock and grief swept through the community following the heartbreaking incident.

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.
News Network
November 4,2024

bcomstudent.jpg

Bengaluru: In a chilling case of moral policing gone violent, three men have been arrested for the brutal murder of a 21-year-old college student at a farmhouse near Bengaluru. The accused, identified as Chandru, Nagesh, and Murali from Honnapura, allegedly killed the student, Punith, following an altercation.

Punith, a BCom student at a private college, had gone to the Chikkenahalli Farmhouse on October 26 with seven classmates, including two women, for a casual outing. According to police reports, the group was enjoying their time when the accused, all locals, became aware of the gathering.

At around 10:30 pm, the three men stormed the farmhouse and began recording videos of Punith’s female classmates, who were in the swimming pool. They verbally abused the students, questioning their presence and demanding to know who had permitted them to use the farmhouse.

When Punith protested against their actions, the situation escalated violently. He was viciously attacked with a wooden log, sustaining severe head injuries. Punith was rushed to a nearby hospital but succumbed to his injuries three days later. Another student, Likith, was also assaulted but suffered only minor injuries.

The Ramanagara Rural police have registered a case of murder against the suspects, who are now in custody. Further investigations are ongoing.

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.