PM Modi’s goal of a $5 trillion economy by 2025 is at risk

Agencies
September 20, 2019

Sept 20: India’s slowdown and a simmering shadow banking crisis is putting Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s goal of crafting a $5 trillion economy by 2025 at risk.

The nation entered 2019 as the world’s sixth-biggest economy poised to become the fifth. Instead, it has slipped a notch to seventh place as a collapse in consumption slowed gross domestic product growth to the weakest in six years. External shocks from trade wars to surging oil prices are exacerbating that pain.

Troubled by the grim prospects, the central bank has lowered interest rates to a nine-year low and Governor Shaktikanta Das wants other stakeholders -- from the government to banks to the private sector -- to step up. But with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman facing lower revenue prospects that threaten her budget gap goal, the heavy lifting on stimulus appears to lie with the Reserve Bank of India.

Das may be able to ease a financing squeeze, but it’ll take delivery on big bang reforms to unlock the productivity gains needed to power the economy toward Modi’s goals. While his return to office this year with a bigger mandate stoked expectations among investors for bolder reforms, that hope is fading 100 days into his second term as global investors head for the exit.

Unemployment at a 45-year high has hurt demand for everything from soaps to 7-cent cookies, while car sales have slumped the most on record and new investments have been sluggish as a lingering shadow banking crisis curbs lending. That’s caused growth to decelerate for five straight quarters to 5% in the three months to June -- the weakest since March 2013 -- and well below the 8% plus annual expansion needed to achieve the goal.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

“We expect the first-term reforms of the Modi government, including a clean-up of the banking sector, a new bankruptcy law, and a new indirect tax structure, to mark a transition to a faster-growth trajectory. These should lift potential growth to 8% from around 7.4% now. At the same time, we expect a recovery in actual growth, picking up from an estimated 6.2% in fiscal 2020 to 8.5% in fiscal 2025."

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

“For the economy to reach $5 trillion, it will take the types of reform that were long promised: massive reductions in regulations, streamlining of labor laws, privatization of state entities, investments in infrastructure," said Vivek Wadhwa, a distinguished fellow and professor at Carnegie Mellon University’s College of Engineering at Silicon Valley. “Yet little happened," he said.

That laundry list needs to be implemented quickly as India, according to most economists, faces a structural as well as a cyclical slowdown. New measures announced so far by the government to bolster growth are seen falling short of addressing the pain points.

Underpinning the target of $5 trillion is the government’s forecast of 8% average GDP growth, according to Shilan Shah, senior India economist with Capital Economics in Singapore. “That is setting a very high bar," he said.

Oil Prices

Volatile oil prices following the attack on an oil facility in Saudi Arabia are an added risk to the economy that imports 80% of its crude oil needs, while slowing global growth spawned by trade tensions have subdued demand for its exports.

“There is clearly a demand recession going on right now," said Girija Pande, chairman of Singapore-based Apex Avalon Consulting Pte. and a former CEO of Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. “One has to boost aggregate demand and one of the ways of doing that is by lowering rates."

Another way is by attracting large dollops of foreign investments into fresh projects and be part of trading blocs like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. While India has jumped in the ease of doing business rankings, it has not been enough to attract significant foreign capital to become part of global supply chains despite some initial hopes that businesses might relocate to shield themselves from the ongoing U.S.-China trade war.

While Modi has seen through far-reaching reforms -- giving RBI an inflation targeting mandate, introducing a nationwide consumption tax and passing an insolvency law -- in his first term, he’s fallen short of overhauling the banking system. Besides, large parts of the economy are yet to recover from his decision to ban high-value bills in 2016.

“Investors should await clarity in the coming months on what steps the government will take to ease labor laws, reform the banking system and privatize state-owned enterprises," said Amitabh Dubey, an analyst at TS Lombard.

“But at the same time they should be prepared for a continuation of past policies: namely, a mix of reform, state control and populism."

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News Network
November 5,2024

Mangaluru: Pilikula Biological Park has welcomed several exotic species, including a six-year-old Asiatic lion, a wolf, two gharial crocodiles, and four rare birds (two silver pheasants and two yellow-golden pheasants), as part of an animal exchange programme with Nandankanan Zoological Park, Odisha. The exchange was approved by the Central Zoo Authority, marking a major addition to Pilikula Zoo's growing collection.

Animal Exchange Details

Park Director H Jayaprakash Bhandary provided insights into the exchange programme. In return for the new arrivals, Pilikula Zoo will send four dholes (wild dogs), four rare reticulated pythons, two Brahminy kites, three Asian palm civets, and two large egrets to Nandankanan Zoo. Notably, all animals sent from Pilikula were born in the zoo, showcasing the zoo's success in breeding rare species.

Purpose of the Exchange

The animal exchange programme serves multiple purposes, including providing companions for solitary animals and preserving pure bloodlines. Pilikula Zoo already houses three lions, and the new male Asiatic lion was introduced as a companion. Since the number of Asiatic male lions in Indian zoos is relatively low, the zoo sourced this lion from the distant Nandankanan Zoological Park.

Care During Transport

To ensure the animals' safety and well-being during the 2,000-kilometre journey — the longest distance covered in Pilikula’s animal exchange history — two veterinary officers and eight caretakers from Nandankanan accompanied the animals. Both zoos will share equal responsibility for the care of the exchanged animals.

Future Animal Additions and Revenue Boost

Pilikula Biological Park, home to approximately 1,200 animals, birds, and reptiles, is one of India’s 18 large zoos. Discussions are ongoing for future exchanges with other prominent zoos, including Chhatbir Zoo in Punjab, Byculla Zoo in Mumbai, and the Madras Crocodile Bank. The zoo also plans to introduce rare species like the Anaconda and the Humboldt penguin, for which special enclosures will be built, thanks to donor contributions.

The addition of these rare animals and birds is expected to boost the zoo’s revenue, helping it become self-sustaining, Bhandary said.

Quarantine and Public Display

Before being introduced to the public, the new arrivals will spend around 15 days in a quarantine ward to adapt to the local environment. They will receive necessary vaccinations and treatments during this period, after which they will be displayed to visitors.

Record-breaking Exchange

This animal exchange marks a significant achievement for Pilikula Zoo, with the animals being transported over approximately 2,000 kilometres from Nandankanan Zoological Park. This sets a new record, surpassing the previous longest exchange with Udaipur Zoo in Rajasthan, which was around 1,700 kilometres.

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News Network
October 28,2024

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Bengaluru: A burned, unidentifiable body discovered in a Kodagu coffee plantation has led Karnataka police to unravel a shocking murder plot involving 54-year-old businessman Ramesh’s wife, Niharika (29), her lover Nikhil, and accomplice Ankur. The trio allegedly orchestrated Ramesh’s murder for financial gain, journeying across state lines to dispose of his body in an attempt to conceal their crime. All three suspects are now in custody.

Suspicious Discovery in Kodagu Estate

On October 8, a charred body was found in a coffee plantation near Suntikoppa, Kodagu. With no immediate means of identification, police reviewed local CCTV footage. A red Mercedes Benz passing through the area raised suspicions. Registered under Ramesh’s name, this vehicle led the police to contact Telangana authorities, linking the case to Ramesh, who had recently been reported missing by his wife, Niharika.

An Intricate Plot for Wealth

As investigations deepened, police began to suspect Niharika’s involvement. Under questioning, she revealed her role in the plot and implicated her accomplices, Nikhil—a veterinary doctor—and Ankur. The probe uncovered Niharika’s troubled past, including a stint in prison, where she met Ankur. After marrying Ramesh, her desire for luxury grew, and she allegedly demanded ₹8 crore, which Ramesh refused, leading her to conspire with Nikhil and Ankur.

Murder and Cover-Up

On October 1 in Uppal, Hyderabad, the accused allegedly strangled Ramesh. They then drove over 800 km to Kodagu, disposing of the body in a coffee estate by setting it ablaze. Niharika later filed a missing person report for Ramesh to cover her tracks.

Painstaking Investigation

Kodagu Police Chief Ramarajan highlighted the challenges faced: “The body was nearly unrecognizable. Our team traced suspicious vehicle activity across CCTV cameras from Kodagu to Tumkur, eventually linking the vehicle to Ramesh from Telangana.” Through detailed examination, police collected enough evidence to arrest Niharika, Nikhil, and Ankur, confirming the horrifying plot that led to Ramesh’s murder.

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News Network
November 10,2024

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Mangaluru: A heart-wrenching tragedy unfolded in the quiet Bellayuru village on the outskirts of Mangaluru as a man’s life ended on a railway track following an apparent double murder. Authorities from the Mulki police station identified the man as Karthik Bhat, 32, whose lifeless body was discovered on the tracks with his head positioned on the rail, indicating a tragic suicide.

Nearby, police recovered keys to a scooter and a house, which eventually led them to uncover a series of chilling events. Following the trail, officers located Bhat’s scooter parked near Mahammayi Temple. Inside the vehicle, they found documents confirming his identity, including an RC, insurance papers, and his driving license.

Their search continued to Bhat's home in Pakshikere, Kemral village, where they discovered a locked room. With the keys retrieved from the tracks, police unlocked the door, only to be confronted by a horrifying sight. The bodies of Priyanka (28) and her young son Hriday (4) lay in a pool of blood, pointing to a brutal murder that occurred just hours before Bhat’s suicide.

Initial investigations suggest Bhat, beleaguered by ongoing family disputes, committed the murders of his wife and son on the evening of November 8 before tragically ending his own life. A death note found in his diary hinted at his mental state and tragic intentions.

Priyanka’s family, residing in Shivamogga, was informed of the incident. The couple, married for six years, now leaves behind grieving relatives and unanswered questions. Police have initiated formal proceedings, collecting statements from family members as they continue their investigation into the tragic sequence of events.

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