Why more vaccinated people are dying of covid in UK than unvaccinated?

News Network
July 16, 2021

London, July 16: More vaccinated people are dying of Covid than unvaccinated people, according to a recent report from Public Health England (PHE). The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died of the delta variant within 28 days of a positive Covid test between February 1 and June 21, had received at least one dose of the vaccine. At first glance, this may seem alarming, but it is exactly as would be expected.

Here’s a simple thought experiment: imagine everyone is now fully vaccinated with Covid vaccines – which are excellent but can’t save all lives. Some people who get infected with Covid will still die. All of these people will be fully vaccinated – 100%. That doesn’t mean vaccines aren’t effective at reducing death.

The risk of dying from Covid doubles roughly every seven years older a patient is. The 35-year difference between a 35-year-old and a 70-year-old means the risk of death between the two patients has doubled five times – equivalently it has increased by a factor of 32. An unvaccinated 70-year-old might be 32 times more likely to die of Covid than an unvaccinated 35-year-old.

This dramatic variation of the risk profile with age means that even excellent vaccines don’t reduce the risk of death for older people to below the risk for some younger demographics.

PHE data suggests that being double vaccinated reduces the risk of being hospitalised with the now-dominant delta variant by around 96%. Even conservatively assuming the vaccines are no more effective at preventing death than hospitalisation (actually they are likely to be more effective at preventing death) this means the risk of death for double vaccinated people has been cut to less than one-twentieth of the value for unvaccinated people with the same underlying risk profile.

However, the 20-fold decrease in risk afforded by the vaccine isn’t enough to offset the 32-fold increase in underlying risk of death of an 70-year-old over a 35-year-old.

Given the same risk of infection, we would still expect to see more double-vaccinated 70-year-olds die from Covid than unvaccinated 35-year-olds. There are caveats to that simple calculation. The risk of infection is not the same for all age groups. Currently, infections are highest in the youngest and lower in older age groups.

Think of it as ball-bearing rain

One way to imagine the risk is as a rain of differently sized ball bearings falling from the sky, where the ball bearings are the people that get infected with Covid. For simplicity’s sake, let’s assume there are roughly equal numbers of ball bearings in each age group. In each age category, there is also a variation in the size of the balls. The balls representing the older groups are smaller, representing a higher risk of death.

Now imagine there’s a sieve that catches many of the balls. Most people who get Covid will not die (most balls get caught in the sieve). But some of the smaller balls fall through. The older you are, the more likely you are to fall through the holes. The balls that make it through the first sieve are hugely skewed towards older age ranges, represented by the smaller ball bearings. Before Covid vaccines came along, the people that fell through the holes represented the people who would die of Covid. The risk was massively skewed towards older people.

Vaccination provides a second sieve underneath the first, to prevent people from dying. This time, because we haven’t vaccinated everyone, it’s the holes in the sieve that are of different sizes. For older people who’ve had both doses, the holes are smaller, so many ball-bearings are stopped. The vaccines will save many of those who would previously have died.

For younger people the holes in the vaccine sieve are currently bigger as they are less likely to have received both doses and so more likely to fall through the sieve.

If all the filtering were just done by the second sieve (with no skew in risk of death by age, represented by the first sieve), then we might expect younger unvaccinated people to account for a larger proportion of the deaths. But it isn’t. The first sieve is so hugely biased towards older people that even with vaccination, more of them slip through the second sieve than the younger unvaccinated people.

Given the UK’s vaccination strategy (vaccinate older, more vulnerable people first), you would expect high proportions of the people who die from Covid to have been vaccinated. And that is exactly what we see in the data.

The fact that more vaccinated people are dying than unvaccinated people does nothing to undermine vaccine safety or effectiveness. In fact, it’s exactly what we’d expect from the excellent vaccines, which have already saved tens of thousands of lives.

Comments

David Dunning White
 - 
Monday, 4 Apr 2022

What a load of absolute rubbish. These vaccines are neither safe or effective and have not even passed the stage 3 trials. They plainly don't prevent transmission or infection and the claims that they prevent hospitalisation are spurious and unproven and are a last resort at trying to assure the public that they are safe and effective. Beware of these gene therapy jabs unless you want heart problems ,fertility problems and a weakened and useless immune system.

Ramesh Mishra
 - 
Tuesday, 27 Jul 2021

COVID-19, VACCINE DOES NOT GIVE A GUARANTEED LIFE TO ANYONE ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD: People of all ages, races, religions and colours follow the health guidelines issued by the authorities. I have studied, worked and travelled the world for over 50, years, I frequently travel around the world and I have noticed that since the declaration of the pandemic, most of the world was in denial and look at Covid-19, as a joke. The people around the world, and economy is unpredictable due to economic catastrophe and massive death caused by the Covid-19. The law-abiding, disciplined and principled countries would recover fast and the lawless countries would be doomed. The fear of Covid-19 now is in the minds of people around the world and people are afraid to breathe the fresh air. It is our faith that would keep us happy, healthy and alive. Covid-19 is curable and the death incurable.
Ramesh Mishra
Victoria, BC, CANADA

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News Network
February 11,2025

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Addressing the AI Action Summit in Paris, Prime Minister Narendra Modi stressed that AI is writing the code for humanity in this century.

"I am grateful to my friend President Macron for hosting this summit and for inviting me to co-chair it. AI is already reshaping our economy, security and even our society. AI is writing the code for humanity in this century...," PM Modi said.

Giving a simple experiment, he said, "If you upload your medical report to an AI app, it can explain in simple language, free of any jargon what it means for your health. But if you ask the same app to draw an image of someone writing with their left hand, the app will most likely draw someone writing with their right hand...".

He also stressed on the need for open source systems that enhance transparency.

"Governance is also about ensuring access to all, especially in the Global South. It is where the capabilities are most lacking be it power, talent, or data for the financial resources. AI can help transform millions of lives by improving health, education, agriculture and so much more. It can help create a world in which the journey to sustainable development goals becomes easier and faster. To do this, we must pull together resources and talent. We must develop open-source systems that enhance trust and transparency. We must build quality data sets free from biases...," the Prime Minister said.

Highlighting AI's potential to shape humanity's future at Paris summit, PM Modi said, "We are at the dawn of the AI age that will shape the course of humanity." 

Hailing India's digital revolution, PM Modi said, "India has successfully built a digital public infrastructure for over 1.4 billion people at a very low cost. It is built around an open and accessible network. It has regulations and a wide range of applications to modernise our economy, reform governance and transform the lives of our people...Today, India leads in AI adoption and techno-legal solutions on data privacy...We have one of the world's largest AI talent pools."

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coastaldigest.com news network
February 14,2025

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In a tragic turn of events, a non-resident Indian from Beltangady taluk in Dakshina Kannada, who was eagerly anticipating his return home, passed away in Saudi Arabia just hours before his scheduled journey back. The news has left his family, friends, and the entire community in deep mourning.

A Final Call Filled with Joy and Excitement

On Thursday, February 13, brimming with excitement and joy, Hidayath called his dear friend Rafiq, asking him to pick him up from Mangaluru International Airport on Friday morning. The anticipation of reuniting with loved ones after a long time was palpable in his voice. He was set to depart from Jeddah on a 10:30 pm flight, with a promise of a new dawn back home.

A Sudden Turn of Fate

However, fate had a different plan. Upon reaching Jeddah Airport, an unexpected chest pain struck Hidayath. Despite being rushed to a nearby hospital, the efforts to save him were in vain. The joyful anticipation of his return turned into an incomprehensible loss.

A Man of Talent and Dreams

Hidayath, known for his melodious singing, had initially moved to Bahrain for work before relocating to Saudi Arabia, where he worked for a cargo company. His journey was fueled by dreams and aspirations, driven by the hope of a better future for his family.

An Irreplaceable Loss

He leaves behind his grieving father Abdul Raqaq, his loving mother Shamshir Banu, his devoted wife Reshma, one son, three daughters, and countless family members and friends who cherished him. The void left by his absence is indescribable and his memories will forever be etched in their hearts.

Bringing Him Home

Efforts are underway to bring Hidayath’s mortal remains back to his hometown. His childhood friend and SDPI district secretary, Akbar Beltangady, is coordinating with authorities to ensure he makes his final journey back to the land he loved, where his loved ones await to bid him a final farewell.

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News Network
February 3,2025

Udupi: A 59-year-old man has allegedly lost ₹20.17 lakh in a stock market scam after being lured by promises of high returns.

Vinod, the complainant, stated that he discovered an online stock market-related company, PML Securities, on November 2 last year. Encouraged by its offerings, he began investing through the company’s mobile applications, PML Max and PML PRO, starting from November 27.

Initially, his investments were returned in line with the IPO (Initial Public Offering) process, reinforcing his trust in the platform. However, trouble arose when he attempted to withdraw his funds, only to find himself unable to do so. Upon contacting the company, he was allegedly persuaded that additional payments were required to unlock his money.

Trusting the assurances given, Vinod continued making payments, transferring a total of ₹20.17 lakh to various bank accounts linked to the company until December 24. The complaint alleges that the operators of PML Max and PML PRO deceived him by falsely promising substantial returns on stock market investments.

A case has been registered at the Manipal Police Station, and an investigation is underway.

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