Why more vaccinated people are dying of covid in UK than unvaccinated?

News Network
July 16, 2021

London, July 16: More vaccinated people are dying of Covid than unvaccinated people, according to a recent report from Public Health England (PHE). The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died of the delta variant within 28 days of a positive Covid test between February 1 and June 21, had received at least one dose of the vaccine. At first glance, this may seem alarming, but it is exactly as would be expected.

Here’s a simple thought experiment: imagine everyone is now fully vaccinated with Covid vaccines – which are excellent but can’t save all lives. Some people who get infected with Covid will still die. All of these people will be fully vaccinated – 100%. That doesn’t mean vaccines aren’t effective at reducing death.

The risk of dying from Covid doubles roughly every seven years older a patient is. The 35-year difference between a 35-year-old and a 70-year-old means the risk of death between the two patients has doubled five times – equivalently it has increased by a factor of 32. An unvaccinated 70-year-old might be 32 times more likely to die of Covid than an unvaccinated 35-year-old.

This dramatic variation of the risk profile with age means that even excellent vaccines don’t reduce the risk of death for older people to below the risk for some younger demographics.

PHE data suggests that being double vaccinated reduces the risk of being hospitalised with the now-dominant delta variant by around 96%. Even conservatively assuming the vaccines are no more effective at preventing death than hospitalisation (actually they are likely to be more effective at preventing death) this means the risk of death for double vaccinated people has been cut to less than one-twentieth of the value for unvaccinated people with the same underlying risk profile.

However, the 20-fold decrease in risk afforded by the vaccine isn’t enough to offset the 32-fold increase in underlying risk of death of an 70-year-old over a 35-year-old.

Given the same risk of infection, we would still expect to see more double-vaccinated 70-year-olds die from Covid than unvaccinated 35-year-olds. There are caveats to that simple calculation. The risk of infection is not the same for all age groups. Currently, infections are highest in the youngest and lower in older age groups.

Think of it as ball-bearing rain

One way to imagine the risk is as a rain of differently sized ball bearings falling from the sky, where the ball bearings are the people that get infected with Covid. For simplicity’s sake, let’s assume there are roughly equal numbers of ball bearings in each age group. In each age category, there is also a variation in the size of the balls. The balls representing the older groups are smaller, representing a higher risk of death.

Now imagine there’s a sieve that catches many of the balls. Most people who get Covid will not die (most balls get caught in the sieve). But some of the smaller balls fall through. The older you are, the more likely you are to fall through the holes. The balls that make it through the first sieve are hugely skewed towards older age ranges, represented by the smaller ball bearings. Before Covid vaccines came along, the people that fell through the holes represented the people who would die of Covid. The risk was massively skewed towards older people.

Vaccination provides a second sieve underneath the first, to prevent people from dying. This time, because we haven’t vaccinated everyone, it’s the holes in the sieve that are of different sizes. For older people who’ve had both doses, the holes are smaller, so many ball-bearings are stopped. The vaccines will save many of those who would previously have died.

For younger people the holes in the vaccine sieve are currently bigger as they are less likely to have received both doses and so more likely to fall through the sieve.

If all the filtering were just done by the second sieve (with no skew in risk of death by age, represented by the first sieve), then we might expect younger unvaccinated people to account for a larger proportion of the deaths. But it isn’t. The first sieve is so hugely biased towards older people that even with vaccination, more of them slip through the second sieve than the younger unvaccinated people.

Given the UK’s vaccination strategy (vaccinate older, more vulnerable people first), you would expect high proportions of the people who die from Covid to have been vaccinated. And that is exactly what we see in the data.

The fact that more vaccinated people are dying than unvaccinated people does nothing to undermine vaccine safety or effectiveness. In fact, it’s exactly what we’d expect from the excellent vaccines, which have already saved tens of thousands of lives.

Comments

David Dunning White
 - 
Monday, 4 Apr 2022

What a load of absolute rubbish. These vaccines are neither safe or effective and have not even passed the stage 3 trials. They plainly don't prevent transmission or infection and the claims that they prevent hospitalisation are spurious and unproven and are a last resort at trying to assure the public that they are safe and effective. Beware of these gene therapy jabs unless you want heart problems ,fertility problems and a weakened and useless immune system.

Ramesh Mishra
 - 
Tuesday, 27 Jul 2021

COVID-19, VACCINE DOES NOT GIVE A GUARANTEED LIFE TO ANYONE ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD: People of all ages, races, religions and colours follow the health guidelines issued by the authorities. I have studied, worked and travelled the world for over 50, years, I frequently travel around the world and I have noticed that since the declaration of the pandemic, most of the world was in denial and look at Covid-19, as a joke. The people around the world, and economy is unpredictable due to economic catastrophe and massive death caused by the Covid-19. The law-abiding, disciplined and principled countries would recover fast and the lawless countries would be doomed. The fear of Covid-19 now is in the minds of people around the world and people are afraid to breathe the fresh air. It is our faith that would keep us happy, healthy and alive. Covid-19 is curable and the death incurable.
Ramesh Mishra
Victoria, BC, CANADA

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News Network
February 3,2025

Mandya: An eight-year-old girl has alleged that she was sexually assaulted by two boys inside the washroom of her school in Mandya district of Karnataka, police said on Monday.

The incident was alleged to have occurred on January 31. However, the complaint came to light on Sunday when the girl's mother approached the police, they said.

Citing her statement, a senior police officer said that the class two student of a government school has alleged that two boys allegedly took her to the washroom where they threatened her to remove clothes and thereafter thrashed her with a stick. They also beat her on her private parts.

One of the boys she identified is her classmate while another is from a higher class, he said.

The girl alleged that the accused students threatened her not to disclose the incident to anyone but later she confided in her mother, he added.

Based on the statement of the girl, a case was registered under the Protection of Children from Sexual Offences Act against the two boys and an investigation is underway to ascertain the sequence of events and verify facts, said Mandya Superintendent of Police Mallikarjun Baladandi.

As part of the investigation, police are also reviewing the CCTV footage from the school premises.
However, the medical examination report of the girl did not reveal any such injury on private parts, police said, adding that statements of the boys will be recorded and further action will be taken accordingly.

"We are currently investigating the case and are verifying details given by the girl in her statement. There are some inconsistencies in her account," he added.

Meanwhile, BJP State President B Y Vijayendra condemned the incident on social media platform X alleging that law and order in the state had completely deteriorated with cases of rape of minors, assault on women and daylight robberies being reported in the state.

He demanded that strict action be taken against the perpetrators.

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Agencies
February 12,2025

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Kottayam: Stripped naked, dumbbells hung from private parts, stabbed with geometry box compasses and beaten bloody for three months - a fresh ragging incident has rocked a government college in Kerala where five third-year nursing students have been arrested for allegedly subjecting their juniors to months of brutal physical and mental abuse.

The incident took place at Government Nursing College in Kottayam where three first-year students - all from Thiruvananthapuram -  filed a formal complaint with the Kottayam Gandhinagar police, detailing a series of violent acts that began in November 2024 and continued for nearly three months.  

The complaint led to the suspension of the students and their arrest under the Anti-Ragging Act. According to the police, the first-year students were forced to stand naked while their seniors hung dumbbells from their private parts. The victims were also subjected to injuries using sharp objects, including a compass from a geometry box.  

The cruelty did not stop there. Lotion was applied to the wounds, causing pain. When the victims screamed in agony, the lotion was forcibly smeared into their mouths. The seniors allegedly filmed these acts and threatened the juniors with dire consequences, including jeopardising their academic futures, if they dared to report the abuse.  

The complaint also claims that the seniors regularly extorted money from the juniors on Sundays to buy alcohol. Those who refused to comply were beaten. One student, unable to bear the harassment any longer, informed his father, who then encouraged him to approach the police.  

All five are currently in police custody and are expected to be produced before a magistrate by Wednesday afternoon.  

The incident comes weeks after a 15-year-old schoolboy in Kochi died by suicide. The student's mother alleged that her son was bullied by students which pushed him towards his death.

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News Network
February 11,2025

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Dubai: The Consulate General of India in Dubai recently awarded Aim India Forum with an appreciation award in recognition of its significant contributions to the Indian community in the UAE.

In September 2024, the UAE government launched an amnesty initiative aimed at promoting respect for the law, tolerance, compassion, and social cohesion. This initiative allowed individuals who chose to leave the country during the amnesty period to do so without facing overstay fines, exit fees, or entry bans, while retaining the right to re-enter the UAE at any time.

Aim India Forum was invited to collaborate with the Indian Consulate during this amnesty period. Our Founder President, Shirali Shaikh Muzaffer, accepted the invitation and dedicated four months to this important initiative. Alongside other community organizations, including DUBAI KMCC, IPF UAE, FOI UAE, and others, Aim India Forum worked tirelessly to support fellow Indian nationals in need.

His Excellency Satish Kumar Sivan, Consul General of India, acknowledged and congratulated Founder President Shaikh Muzaffer and Board Member Mohammed Niyaz for their unwavering dedication and efforts throughout this project.

The Aim India Forum played a pivotal role in the safe repatriation of distressed and stranded Indian citizens in the UAE. An amnesty help desk was set up at the Indian Consulate to assist those seeking amnesty. This desk offered a range of services at no cost, including Emergency Certificates (one-way travel documents), labor cancellation, case clearance, and the issuance of exit permits/outpasses. Through these efforts, the Consulate General of India in Dubai successfully assisted 15,000 Indian nationals.

In partnership with various Indian diaspora organizations, CGI Dubai facilitated the issuance of 2,117 passports, 3,589 emergency certificates, and supported the acquisition of over 3,700 exit permits. Many individuals also benefitted from our guidance in securing fee and penalty waivers from UAE authorities.

As this operation concludes, we extend our deepest gratitude to the UAE Government for its unwavering support. We also wish to express our sincere thanks to the dedicated volunteers from diaspora organizations who played an instrumental role in the success of this initiative.

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