3.7 million by Nov 2021: India's covid deaths 6 times higher than official count, says new study

News Network
February 17, 2022

A new study on Wednesday again pegged India's Covid-19 mortality at 3.2-3.7 million by November 2021 providing yet another piece of evidence in support of huge under-counting of Covid deaths in India.

Christophe Guilmoto, a researcher at Centre de Sciences Humaines, Delhi has estimated India's Covid death toll at almost six to eight times higher than the official toll, months after the ferocious second wave -- turning India into one of the world's most severely Covid-affected nations.

For comparison, by early November, India’s official Covid toll was 4,59,000, which has now crossed the 5 lakh mark

If 3.2–3.7 million Covid-19 deaths are taken into account, India would emerge as the country with by far the largest number of Covid-19 deaths in the world, well ahead of the USA (0.8 million), Brazil (0.6), or Mexico (0.3).

With such revised estimates, the global Covid death toll would rise by several million to 7.8–8.3 million till November 1, 2021.

Another outcome of the new estimation relates to Covid mortality rates. The highest crude Covid death rates per inhabitant in November 2021 are observed in Peru with 6 per 1,000 and in Eastern Europe where several countries record rates above 3 per 1,000.

India’s revised Covid-19 death rate of 2.3–2.6 per 1,000 is four times as high as the world's average (0.6) and would place India at the 13-19th rank among the most affected countries — rather than at the 127th rank according to official estimates.

The Union Health Ministry earlier rejected past findings with similar conclusions, noting that underlying assumptions of such studies were flawed.

"We are used to criticisms of our computations. But a gap existed between the deaths reported by the government and what was reported from the ground. There was indirect evidence of serious underestimate, but it was difficult to estimate," Guilmoto said.

The CSH scientist arrived at his estimate by looking at Covid-19 mortality in four different sets of populations and subsequently adopting a novel triangulation process for national death estimates.

The four data sets that he used for the study are (1) general population from Kerala (26,628 Covid deaths) (2) MLAs and MPs (43 deaths with a death rate of 7.4 per 1,000), (2) railway employees (1,952 deaths with rate of 1.5) and (4) school teachers in Karnataka (268 deaths with a rate of 1.36).

These four data sets were used because of the reliability of death estimation, regional representativeness, and demographic characteristics. "Covid-19 data from most of the states was not up to the mark, apart from Kerala and to some extent Karnataka and Tamil Nadu," he said.

In January, Prabhat Jha from the University of Toronto and his coworkers published a study in Science, in which they estimated 3.2 million Covid deaths in India between June 1, 2020 and July 1, 2021, the majority of which occurred from April 1 to July 1, 2021. This is six to seven times higher than the official estimate.

India’s reported Covid death totals are widely believed to be under-reported because of factors like incomplete certification and misattribution to chronic diseases. "Our study finds that Indian Covid-19 deaths are substantially greater than estimated from official reports," Jha reported.

Guilmoto’s study has appeared in the journal PLOS One.

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News Network
November 11,2024

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The Manipur Kuki MLAs have released a statement calling out Solicitor General Tushar Mehta's 'lies' in the Supreme Court. In a joint statement, the MLAs, including those from the Bharatiya Janata Party, said they had not had any meeting with the Chief Minister since May 3, 2023, nor did they intend to meet him in the future as “he was the mastermind behind the violence”.

As per the MLAs, the SG lied about state CM N Biren Singh speaking to Kuki MLAs to control the situation there, in order to halt a Supreme Court probe into the leaked tapes which allege that Singh has been complicit in the violence that broke out between Kukis and Meitis there.

"We...clarify that we have never had any meeting with Chief Minister, Shri N. Biren Singh since May 3, 2023, nor have any intention to meet him in future as he is the mastermind behind the violence and ethnic cleansing of our people from the Imphal valley, which is continuing till today, the latest being the brutal killing and burning of Mrs Zosangkim Hmar on November 7, 2024," the letter read, while condemning the recent 'barbaric' killing of the woman there, and noting the SG's assertion is 'tantamount' to misleading the top court.

“We, the undersigned ten MLAs, have come to know that during the Supreme Court hearing held on November 8, 2024, the Solicitor General of India submitted that ‘CM is meeting all Kuki MLAs and trying to bring the situation down to get peace’. In this connection, we hereby categorically state that this submission is a blatant lie and tantamount to misleading the Hon’ble Supreme Court of India,” the statement said.

The Supreme Court, while hearing a petition by a Kuki organisation, asked that it submit audio tapes to substantiate its claim that the Chief Minister was instrumental in inciting and organising violence in the northeastern State.

Solicitor-General Tushar Mehta orally informed the court that the Chief Minister was meeting all the Kuki-Zo MLAs and that peace in the State had come at a huge cost.

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News Network
November 15,2024

Udupi: The Tourism Department is planning a major eco-friendly development initiative for Kamini Island, located near the Blue Flag-certified Padubidri End Point beach, aiming to attract more visitors while maintaining environmental sustainability.

Assistant Director Kumar CU emphasized that, given the island’s proximity to the Blue Flag beach, all development efforts will center around eco-friendly practices. “We are looking to enhance the Kamini River and the island’s surroundings by adding a hanging bridge, nature trails, and eco-friendly food courts offering traditional cuisine. Visitors will also be able to reach the island by pedal boats or kayaking,” he said.

The development project is estimated to cost between Rs 3 crore and Rs 4 crore. Meanwhile, the Blue Flag beach, Padubidri, continues to see a steady flow of visitors. Vijay Shetty, manager of the beach, shared that tenders for food courts and water sports have been awarded to private parties. Recently, three new coracles have been introduced, which are proving to be a hit with visitors. Additionally, three more shelters are expected to be ready by November 20.

Shetty mentioned that the beach can now accommodate between 2,500 and 3,000 visitors daily, although footfall remains lower than other district beaches due to user fees and activity restrictions. “Initially, most visitors were from Mangaluru, but now nearly 40% come from other districts, showing a shift in the visitor demographics,” Shetty noted.

To further boost tourism and promote a healthy lifestyle, a Beach Carnival is set to take place on November 23-24, featuring the National Sea Swimming Championship and a sea marathon in collaboration with the Padubidri JCI, which is celebrating its golden jubilee. Cultural events will be held at the main beach, with some sports events taking place at the Blue Flag beach. Emphasis will be placed on making all activities environmentally friendly.

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News Network
November 11,2024

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Mangaluru: In a deeply tragic turn of events, a 28-year-old woman named Ranjitha, who had recently given birth but tragically lost her newborn, ended her life by suicide on Monday. She reportedly leapt from the fourth-floor window of Lady Goschen Hospital’s luggage room.

Ranjitha, whose strength and resilience had carried her through a difficult pregnancy, was scheduled for discharge on Monday. Her journey to Lady Goschen Hospital began on October 24, when she was transferred from Karkala. She was a high-risk patient, battling both hypertension and diabetes. At the time of her admission, she was just 27 weeks pregnant.

Due to the complexities of her health, doctors made the difficult decision to perform an emergency C-section on October 30. She delivered a baby girl, premature and weighing only 960 grams. The newborn was immediately moved to the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit, where doctors did all they could. Despite these efforts, the baby passed away on November 3.

Ranjitha’s sorrow was profound. She stayed under hospital care even after her initial recovery and was preparing to go home on November 9. She had even requested a couple more days at the hospital, seeking time perhaps to cope with her unimaginable grief.

On the day of her discharge, a discharge card ready and her family eagerly waiting to take her home, Ranjitha reportedly made her way to the luggage room in the early hours. There, standing on a cot placed for patients' family members, she climbed to a window and fell from the fourth floor. Despite the attempts of another visitor to intervene, tragedy was inevitable. She was rushed to Government Wenlock Hospital, where doctors confirmed the worst—she was no more.

Dr. Durgaparasad M R, the Medical Superintendent at Lady Goschen Hospital, shared his grief and spoke of the ongoing investigation. A post-mortem is to be conducted, and the local Tahsildar will complete the necessary inquest procedures. Ranjitha’s exact reasons for taking this step are yet to be confirmed, though the weight of her recent losses paints a sorrowful picture.

If you or anyone you know is struggling emotionally, please remember that help is available. Reach out to mental health experts who can provide support and guidance. The toll-free helpline number 9152987821 is available to assist anyone in distress.

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