Economy to Grow Only 0.3% in 2 Years as India Enters First Technical Recession

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November 30, 2020

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New Delhi: The Indian economy is forecast to show an average growth of only 0.3 per cent in two years as India enters its first technical recession, GDP could post further decline in 3QFY21.

As per a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services, “Real GDP declined 7.5 per cent YoY in 2QFY21 (or 3QCY20), worse than our expectation, but better than the market consensus”.

Fiscal spending, consumption plus investments, posted its first major contraction since FY15 and is the worst on record. On the contrary, decline in private spending narrowed to -9.2 per cent in 2QFY21 from -35.4 per cent YoY in 1Q. The government and private sectors are naturally highly interlinked with each other, the report said.

A comparison of India with other major nations suggests India is no longer the worst affected economy — as the Philippines’ real GDP saw double-digit decline in 3QCY20 and decline was also higher in the UK and Mexico.

Due to a weaker-than-expected 2QFY21, we revise down our 3QFY21 and 4QFY21 growth forecasts.

“We now pencil in a decline of 1.2 per cent YoY in 3QFY21 (v/s a negligible decline earlier) and growth of 2.3 per cent YoY in 4QFY21 (v/s +4.2 per cent projected earlier). Accordingly, India’s real GDP is forecast to decline 7.5 per cent YoY in FY21 (v/s the previous forecast of -6.5 per cent ), but grow 8.5 per cent in FY22 (against 7.8 per cent growth expected earlier). This implies average growth of only 0.3 per cent in the two years,” the report said.

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News Network
November 26,2024

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Former minister and ex-MLC C M Ibrahim claimed that he still heads the original JD(S) and asked former prime minister and party supremo H D Deve Gowda to cut ties with the BJP, so that the party can be strengthened again. He also said options are being explored to either strengthen the JD(S) or to float a new regional party.

He was speaking to media persons, in Mysuru, on Monday, after meeting JD(S) MLA and former minister G T Deve Gowda, who has expressed his displeasure that he has been sidelined in the party and the party leaders have indicated his retirement from politics.

He stated, “If Deve Gowda had joined the Congress, during the last Assembly election, he would have been a minister now. We retained him in the JD(S), to strengthen the party. Now, efforts are being made to strangulate Deve Gowda’s political career. I have discussed all matters with Deve Gowda. In two days, I will start a Karnataka state tour and meet some leaders. After that, I will meet Deve Gowda again, and then decide on the further course of action.”

Ibrahim said, “The original JD(S) is ours. I am still its state president. All documents and accounts are in our name. Even now, if Deve Gowda leaves BJP’s company and returns, we will build the JD(S) again”.

“Union Minister H D Kumaraswamy should mend his ways and stop making JD(S) into a family-owned company. The JD(S)’s situation has become hopeless. Its love for the BJP is over. He should understand this,” he said.

“When I was with Kumaraswamy, he spent just Rs 4 crore in Channapatna and won by 20,000 votes. Now, without me, he spent Rs 150 crore and still lost by 25,000 votes. Without Muslims’ support, the JD(S) cannot win a single seat. Now, it is proved that 19 MLAs of the JD(S) won in 2023, because of Muslims,” he added.

Speaking on other options available, Ibrahim said, “We have not yet decided to go with the Congress. We are only considering to establish a third front. Whether it is founding a new regional party, forming a third front, or strengthening the JD(S), will be decided shortly.”

Earlier during the day, before meeting Deve Gowda, Ibrahim had said, that 12 to 13 JD(S) MLAs were dissatisfied with the party, but like Deve Gowda, were enduring pain.

“Now, I have started the task of uniting them. I as the JD(S) state president, it is my responsibility to address our MLAs’ grievances. At present, the JD(S) is on fire and all JD(S) MLAs want to protect their respective constituency. Hence, they have started speaking one by one,” he said.

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News Network
November 12,2024

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The Palestinian Hamas resistance movement says its fighters have killed at least 20 Israeli soldiers in northern parts of the besieged Gaza Strip in just two days, in retaliation for the occupying regime’s genocidal war on the Palestinian territory.

In a statement on Monday evening, Hamas said that fighters of its military wing, al-Qassam Brigades, “killed at least five occupation soldiers” in northern parts of the coastal territory earlier in the day.

It added that Hamas fighters also killed 15 Israeli soldiers in the war-ravaged region on Sunday.

The resistance movement’s “qualitative operation … confirms once again the failure of the criminal Zionist entity to suppress and eradicate the Palestinian resistance, which continues to direct qualitative strikes against its terrorist soldiers,” Hamas further said on its Telegram channel.

Palestinians have increased their resistance operations in the face of intensified Israeli aggression in northern Gaza that has claimed the lives of more than 1,000 over the past weeks.

“Our valiant resistance is waging a war of attrition with the criminal enemy, inflicting daily losses on its soldiers and vehicles, and all of [Israeli prime minister Benjamin] Netanyahu’s bets and dreams of achieving any of his goals are failing,” the Gaza-based resistance movement added.

Hamas also vowed that Israel’s ongoing crimes and aggression against Gaza would be met with increased resistance and painful strikes, which will continue until the aggression against Palestinians ends and the regime fully withdraws from the blockaded territory.

As the war in Gaza enters its 14th month, the Health Ministry reports that Israeli attacks have killed at least 43,603 Palestinians and wounded 102,929 others.

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News Network
November 23,2024

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Bengaluru: In a boost to the ruling Congress in Karnataka, the party on Saturday swept the by-polls to three Assembly segments, causing a major setback to the BJP-JD(S) alliance in the state.

The Congress has retained Sandur, the seat considered to be its strong hold, and has also bagged Shiggaon and Channapatna segments, which were earlier held by BJP and JD(S) respectively.

The November 13 by-polls to Sandur, Shiggaon and Channapatna Assembly segments had witnessed a fierce fight between the ruling Congress and a combative BJP-JD(S) alliance.

The by-polls to Sandur, Shiggaon and Channapatna were necessitated as the seats fell vacant following the election of their respective representatives -- E Tukaram of Congress, former CM Basavaraj Bommai of BJP, and Union Minister Kumaraswamy of JD(S) to Lok Sabha in May elections.

The by-polls witnessed a straight fight between the ruling Congress and BJP in Sandur and Shiggaon segments, while in Channapatna, JD(S) which is part of the NDA alliance took on the grand old party.

Congress' C P Yogeeshwara won the Channapatna segment, defeating JD(S) candidate and Kumaraswamy's son Nikhil Kumaraswamy, by a margin of 25,413 votes.

Former CM Basavaraj Bommai's son Bharath Bommai of BJP faced defeat against Congress' Yasir Ahmed Khan Pathan in Shiggaon Assembly segment by a margin of 13,448 votes.

In Sandur, Congress candidate E Annapoorna, the wife of Bellary MP E Tukaram, won the seat vacated by her husband, by a margin of 9,649 votes.

Congress' win in the by-poll is seen as an endorsement of both Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and his deputy D K Shivakumar's leadership, and the government's programmes, especially the five guarantee schemes.

Nikhil Kumaraswamy and Bharath Bommai, the third generation of Gowda and Bommai family respectively, who contested this bypolls, have lost. Their fathers and grandfathers had served as Karnataka's Chief Ministers in the past.

While for Bharath Bommai this was his electoral debut, for Nikhil it was his third electoral loss.

Among the three segments, Channapatna was considered to be a high profile battle, where the contest was between C P Yogeeshwara and actor-turned-politician Nikhil Kumaraswamy.

A five-time MLA from the segment and a former Minister, Yogeeshwara had joined the Congress after quitting BJP ahead of nomination.

There were plans to field Yogeeshwara on a JD(S) ticket, but he was not interested in it, and instead wanted Kumaraswamy to support him as BJP candidate. This was not acceptable to Kumaraswamy and his party, following which Yogeeshwara jumped ship.

However, Kumaraswamy had subsequently said he had agreed to Yogeeshwara contesting from BJP, and despite that he jumped ship to Congress, under the influence of Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar and his brother and former MP D K Suresh.

Nikhil had faced defeat in 2019 Lok Sabha and 2023 Assembly polls. It is seen as a setback for Kumaraswamy too, as he could not ensure son's win from the Channapatna, the seat he had twice represented in the past.

Congress' win is crucial for Shivakumar, who is also the state Congress chief and his brother Suresh to strengthen their position in their home district of Ramanagara, a Vokkaliga heartland.

In Shiggaon, BJP's Bharath Bommai, son of Basavaraj Bommai lost against Congress' Yasir Ahmed Khan Pathan, who had faced defeat against the former Chief Minister in the 2023 Assembly polls.

Initially, former MLA Syed Azeempeer Khadri, a Congress' ticket aspirant, had raised a banner of revolt in Shiggaon, by filing his nomination as an independent, but later withdrew after intervention by party leadership.

In Sandur, Bellary MP Tukaram's wife E Annapurna of Congress won from the seat vacated by her husband, against BJP ST Morcha president Bangaru Hanumanthu, who is considered close to party leader and former mining barron G Janardhan Reddy.

Sandur is a Congress' bastion, and Tukaram had represented it four times.

Congress winning the by-polls is seen as "crucial" for Chief Minister Siddaramaiah to assert himself , amid demands for his resignation following charges against him in the MUDA site allotment case.

There were also behind-the-scenes political activities within the ruling Congress earlier this year, with a few ministers in his Cabinet holding closed door meetings, fueling speculation about leadership change. But such activities came to a halt following instructions from the party high command.

It is equally important for Shivakumar, who has not shied away from openly expressing his Chief Ministerial ambitions, amid speculations over "rotational Chief Minister formula," according to which he will become CM after two-and-half years (in this govt's five years tenure), but they have not been officially confirmed by the party.

The defeat in this by-poll is seen as a setback for state BJP President Vijayendra, who has been facing intense criticism and opposition from a section within the party, who have raised a banner of revolt against his leadership accusing him and his father, veteran leader B S Yediyurappa of "adjustment politics".

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