Indian economy to contract by 7% in FY21: SBI Research

Agencies
February 10, 2021

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New Delhi, Feb 10: Pencilling in a GDP growth in third and fourth quarters, SBI Research on Wednesday revised its contraction forecast for the current fiscal year to 7 per cent.

The agency had earlier forecast a 7.4 per cent contraction in 2020-21 GDP numbers. In April-September, the economy contracted 15.7 per cent but the second half may see a surprise 2.8 per cent growth if the SBI analysis turns out to be correct.

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at State Bank of India (SBI) said of the 41 high frequency leading indicators, 51 per cent are showing acceleration which should help the economy turn around to the green from the third quarter with a 0.3 percentage point growth which is likely to surprise positively when the final numbers are out.

Read | Govt aims to raise MSMEs' share in GDP to 40%: Nitin Gadkari

In April-June, the Indian economy contracted by a record 23.9 per cent, but dramatically improved to -7.5 per cent in the second quarter. In 2019-20, the economy had grown 4 per cent and in the current fiscal year, it is on course to tank by 7 per cent.

The consensus is -7.5-8 per cent with the NSO pegging it at -7 per cent and RBI at -7.5 per cent.

“We now expect GDP decline for the full year to be around -7 per cent compared to our earlier prediction of –7.4 per cent. Also, Q4 growth will also be in positive territory at around 2.5 per cent,” Ghosh said, adding promptly that the projections are conditional to the absence of any rise in infections.

“We retain our GDP forecast for FY22 at 11 per cent (RBI has pegged it at 10.5 per cent and the economy survey at 11.5 per cent and the budget did not offer a GDP estimate), but with the caveat that 11 per cent will be the floor below which it cannot fall,” he said.

Corporate results so far also reinstate the fact that third quarter would be much better than the previous one. The corporate GVA of 1,129 companies has expanded by 14.7 per cent in October-December compared to 8.6 per cent in second quarter (of 3,758 companies ex- telecom)

On the fiscal gaps, it said 9.5 per cent may be on the higher side. Excluding off-balance sheet liabilities, fiscal deficit will be 8.7 per cent gross tax collection estimate based on revised 2020-21 numbers and collections till December show tax collections will have a degrowth of 8.9 per cent in March quarter on a sequential basis. But in 2021-22 collection may top the budget estimate of Rs 22.17 lakh crore, or 9.9 per cent of GDP.

Also Read | Wrong to term economic crisis act of God, govt policies responsible: CPI

Meanwhile, cash balances of the Centre has declined from the peak Rs 3.4 lakh crore to around Rs 2.3 lakh crore as on February 8.

Given that 85-90 per cent of such cash balances belonged to states that was invested with the Centre, it is possible that states before the closing of accounts of 2020-21 want to spend the cash rather than preserving. 

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News Network
September 24,2024

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Ahmedabad: The investigation into the death of a six-year-old girl in Gujarat's Dahod district has led to a chilling revelation -- the Class I student was choked to death, allegedly by her school's principal after she resisted his attempts to sexually assault her. He then dumped her body in the school's compound and her bag and shoes near the classroom. Police have arrested the accused, 55-year-old Govind Natt.

Senior police officer Rajdeep Singh Jhala said the six-year-old girl's body was found on the premises of her school on Thursday evening, sparking panic in the area. The post-mortem revealed that she suffocated to death. Police registered a case and formed 10 teams to probe the matter. The girl's mother told the police that she went to school with the principal, Govind Natt, every day. When the cops spoke to him, the principal said he had dropped off the girl at the school and left for some work.

The cops were not convinced. When they examined Govind Natt's phone location details on the day of the incident, it was found that he reached school late that day. When he was grilled, the principal confessed to the heinous crime.

"He picked up the girl from her home at around 10.20 am. Her mother helped her get into the principal's car and saw her off. But she never reached the school. The school's students and teachers confirmed this. On the way to school, the principal tried to sexually assault her, and she started shouting," the senior officer said, adding that the principal choked the girl to stop her from shouting.

On reaching the school, the principal left the girl's body in his car and locked the vehicle. "Around 5 pm, he dumps the body behind the school building and plants her school bag and shoes outside her classroom. He denied this initially, but we suspected him after the technical analysis," Mr Jhala said.

Govind Natt, police have said, faces stringent charges under the Bharatiya Nyay Sanhita and the stringent Protection of Children from Sexual Offences (POCSO) Act.

State Education Minister Kuber Dindor said it was a shameful incident for the society. "I am pained by this. We were following this up for three days. We had told police to get to the bottom of this. The principal has been arrested. I condemn this incident and we will take steps to ensure such crimes are not repeated."

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News Network
September 24,2024

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The Israeli regime’s warplanes have conducted extensive airstrikes against towns and villages across Lebanon, killing at least 492 people.

Lebanon’s health ministry announced the death toll on Monday, saying the victims included 35 children and 58 women.

The ministry said at least 1,645 others had also been wounded in the attacks that targeted the areas earlier in the day.

Lebanon’s health minister Firass Abiad said that the health ministry is working to ensure those injured in Israeli strikes are getting the health care they need.

The health minister said he had asked hospitals to stop taking regular, light cases to make space for the wounded from the south.

“We working on directives for the first-aid centres to be turned into places that can receive the wounded. The displaced people who have cancer, kidney failure and other chronic diseases, we have the plan to continue their treatment in different medical centers,” he said.

The country’s media outlets said the aircraft had bombed all the towns and villages lying on the southern border as well as their surroundings.

Israeli warplanes also reportedly targeted eastern Lebanese areas, including the Bekaa Valley and Baalbek.

Lebanese sources said the airstrikes had targeted a total of more than 40 areas in Lebanon during the attacks.

The Sheikh of the Druze community reached out to the Deputy Head of the Supreme Islamic Shia Council and expressed solidarity and reaffirmed support for the people of southern Lebanon, the southern suburbs, and the Bekaa during this critical period for the country.

The Commissioner of Marjayoun-Hassbaya in the Muslim Scouts, Sheikh Hussein Al-Nader, was killed in an Israeli airstrike that targeted his home in the town of Dibbine, Marjayoun district, South Lebanon.

Three people were injured in an Israeli airstrike targeting the Deir El-Zahrani highway, in South Lebanon.

A family of four was killed in Hermel, Bekaa, due to the recent Israeli airstrikes.

Israeli media outlets, meanwhile, alleged that the attacks had hit locations lying as far as 125 kilometers (77 miles) inside the Lebanese territory.

Israeli military spokesman Danieh Hagari said the regime "will engage in [more] extensive and precise strikes” against Lebanon, adding that the attacks would "go on for the near future.”

The regime has markedly intensified its attacks against the country since October 7, when it launched a genocidal war on the Gaza Strip.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah resistance movement has responded with numerous strikes against the occupied Palestinian territories as a means of both retaliating against the regime and displaying support for the war-hit Gazans.

On Sunday, the group staged its farthest-reaching strikes against the territories since October, firing scores of rockets against the Ramat David Airbase, 20 kilometers (12 miles) southeast of the city of Haifa, and the Rafael weapons manufacturing facility in the Zevulun area north of the city.

It described the strike against the facility as its “initial response” to the regime’s detonation of thousands of booby-trapped pagers and walkie-talkie radios that killed at least 39 people and wounded 3,000 others across Lebanon over Tuesday and Wednesday.

Also on Sunday, Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem said the movement was in a "new phase" in its battle against the regime.

"Threats will not stop us... We are ready to face all military possibilities,” he noted.

Qassem made the remarks while attending the funeral of Ibrahim Aqil, one of the group’s senior commanders.

Aqil had been martyred alongside 37 others, including three children and seven women, during an Israeli attack on a residential building in a southern suburb of Lebanon’s capital Beirut on Friday.

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News Network
September 20,2024

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Mandya: The Deputy Superintendent of Police of Nagamangala town in Mandya district has been suspended for "negligence and dereliction of duty" in connection with the clashes that broke out between two groups during a Lord Ganesh idol procession, police said on Friday.

This is the second suspension of a police officer over the clashes on September 11 following which mobs went on a rampage targeting several shops and vehicles leading to tension here.

The situation in the town has since returned to normalcy and most of the shops have started operating. However, adequate security forces continued to be stationed here as a precautionary measure, according to police.

Sumeeth A R, DySP (Nagamangala), was suspended on Thursday for negligence and dereliction of duty, Mandya Superintendent of Police Mallikarjun Baldandi told PTI.

"He (Sumeeth) was not present at the spot nor was he at the police headquarters when the incident occurred. He arrived late at the spot despite the sensitive nature of events," he said.

Earlier, Police Inspector Ashok Kumar posted at Nagamangala town police station was suspended for dereliction of duty in connection with the violence.

A total of 55 people have been arrested in connection with the incident.

According to police, an argument broke out between two groups, when the Ganesh idol procession by devotees from Badarikoppalu village reached a place of worship on September 11, and some miscreants hurled stones, which escalated the situation.

The police had used mild force to disperse the crowd to control the situation.

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