Indian economy to contract by 7% in FY21: SBI Research

Agencies
February 10, 2021

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New Delhi, Feb 10: Pencilling in a GDP growth in third and fourth quarters, SBI Research on Wednesday revised its contraction forecast for the current fiscal year to 7 per cent.

The agency had earlier forecast a 7.4 per cent contraction in 2020-21 GDP numbers. In April-September, the economy contracted 15.7 per cent but the second half may see a surprise 2.8 per cent growth if the SBI analysis turns out to be correct.

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at State Bank of India (SBI) said of the 41 high frequency leading indicators, 51 per cent are showing acceleration which should help the economy turn around to the green from the third quarter with a 0.3 percentage point growth which is likely to surprise positively when the final numbers are out.

Read | Govt aims to raise MSMEs' share in GDP to 40%: Nitin Gadkari

In April-June, the Indian economy contracted by a record 23.9 per cent, but dramatically improved to -7.5 per cent in the second quarter. In 2019-20, the economy had grown 4 per cent and in the current fiscal year, it is on course to tank by 7 per cent.

The consensus is -7.5-8 per cent with the NSO pegging it at -7 per cent and RBI at -7.5 per cent.

“We now expect GDP decline for the full year to be around -7 per cent compared to our earlier prediction of –7.4 per cent. Also, Q4 growth will also be in positive territory at around 2.5 per cent,” Ghosh said, adding promptly that the projections are conditional to the absence of any rise in infections.

“We retain our GDP forecast for FY22 at 11 per cent (RBI has pegged it at 10.5 per cent and the economy survey at 11.5 per cent and the budget did not offer a GDP estimate), but with the caveat that 11 per cent will be the floor below which it cannot fall,” he said.

Corporate results so far also reinstate the fact that third quarter would be much better than the previous one. The corporate GVA of 1,129 companies has expanded by 14.7 per cent in October-December compared to 8.6 per cent in second quarter (of 3,758 companies ex- telecom)

On the fiscal gaps, it said 9.5 per cent may be on the higher side. Excluding off-balance sheet liabilities, fiscal deficit will be 8.7 per cent gross tax collection estimate based on revised 2020-21 numbers and collections till December show tax collections will have a degrowth of 8.9 per cent in March quarter on a sequential basis. But in 2021-22 collection may top the budget estimate of Rs 22.17 lakh crore, or 9.9 per cent of GDP.

Also Read | Wrong to term economic crisis act of God, govt policies responsible: CPI

Meanwhile, cash balances of the Centre has declined from the peak Rs 3.4 lakh crore to around Rs 2.3 lakh crore as on February 8.

Given that 85-90 per cent of such cash balances belonged to states that was invested with the Centre, it is possible that states before the closing of accounts of 2020-21 want to spend the cash rather than preserving. 

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News Network
September 23,2024

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Nagpur: Union Minister Nitin Gadkari on Sunday teased his cabinet colleague Ramdas Athawale over his ability to hold onto his cabinet spot across multiple governments. "It may not be guaranteed that our government will return for a fourth term, but what is definitely guaranteed is that Ramdas Athawale will become a minister," he remarked at an event in Maharashtra's Nagpur.

The playful jibe, with Mr Athawale present on stage, was followed by Mr Gadkari clarifying that he was "just joking."

Mr Athawale, leader of the Republican Party of India (RPI), has served as a minister three times and expressed confidence in continuing his streak if the BJP returns to power.

Mr Athawale on Sunday said his party RPI (A), an ally in the ruling Mahayuti government in Maharashtra, should get to contest on at least 10 to 12 seats in the upcoming assembly elections. Addressing a press conference in Nagpur, Mr Athawale said the RPI-A will contest the election on its party symbol and ask for three to four seats in Vidarbha, including north Nagpur, Umred (Nagpur), Umarkhed in Yavatmal and Washim.

Mr Athawale's party is part of the Mahayuti alliance, comprising the BJP, Shiv Sena led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar's NCP.

The Union minister said, "The RPI-A has made a list of 18 probable seats, which it will be sharing with the Mahayuti partners in a few days and expects to get at least 10 to 12 seats in the seat-sharing pact." He said the BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP should give four seats each from their quota for his party.

In Palghar earlier this week, Mr Athawale claimed that due to the inclusion of the Ajit Pawar-led NCP in the Mahayuti government, the RPI (A) did not get any ministerial berth in the state despite a promise.

He claimed that the party was promised cabinet positions, chairmanship of two corporations, and roles in district-level committees, but all this could not happen because of Pawar's inclusion.

The elections to 288 assembly seats in Maharashtra are likely to be held in November.

In the current assembly, the BJP is the single largest party with 103 MLAs, followed by Shiv Sena 40, NCP 41, Congress 40, Shiv Sena (UBT) 15, NCP (SP) 13 and others 29. Some seats are vacant. 

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September 20,2024

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New Delhi: The Supreme Court today sought a report from the Karnataka High Court over controversial remarks made by Justice Vedavyasachar Srishananda during a recent court hearing.

Justice Srishananda, while addressing a landlord-tenant dispute, referred to a Muslim-majority area in Bengaluru as "Pakistan" and made a misogynistic comment involving a woman lawyer. 

A five-judge bench led by Chief Justice of India DY Chandrachud, along with Justices S Khanna, B R Gavai, S Kant, and H Roy, expressed the need for establishing clear guidelines for constitutional court judges regarding their remarks in court. 

The Supreme Court bench said that when social media plays an active role in monitoring and amplifying courtroom proceedings, there is an urgency to ensure judicial commentary aligns with the decorum expected from courts of law.

"Our attention has been drawn to some comments made by Karnataka High Court judge Justice V Srishananda during the conduct of judicial proceedings. We have asked the AG and SG to assist us. We ask the registrar general of the High Court to submit a report to this court after seeking administrative directions from the Chief Justice of Karnataka High Court. This exercise may be carried out in 2 weeks," the top court directed.

Videos of Justice Srishanananda have gone viral on social media.

In one video, he refers to a Muslim-dominated locality in Bengaluru as "Pakistan" and on another video he was seen making objectionable comments against a woman lawyer. In the second incident, Justice Srishanananda can be heard telling the woman lawyer that she seemed to know a lot about the "opposition party", so much so that she might be able to reveal the colour of their undergarments.

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News Network
October 3,2024

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In a relief to Sadhguru, the Supreme Court on Thursday stayed the police action against Isha Foundation and transferred the matter from the Madras High Court to the top court, PTI reported.

Sadhguru's Isha Foundation today moved the Supreme Court against a Madras High Court order to submit details of all criminal cases against it, ANI reported.

Isha Foundation sought a stay on Madras High Court order, told Supreme Court that 500 policemen raided it, probing every corner, PTI reported.

Senior advocate Mukul Rohatgi appearing for Isha Foundation sought an urgent hearing today.

A bench of CJI DY Chandrachud said that you can't let Police or Army enter a place like this, the agency reported.

One of the women appeared online and said she was staying at the Isha Yoga Centre willingly. The woman told the Supreme Court that both of the sisters are at the Ashram out of their own will and this harassment from their father's side has been continuing for the last eight years.

The top court said it would interact with the two women online in their chambers right away.

Tamil Nadu Police on Tuesday launched an inquiry against Isha Foundation run by yoga guru Jaggi Vasudev over several allegations, a day after the Madras High Court sought a status report on all criminal cases registered against the organisation.

A multi-departmental team led by K Karthikeyan, Coimbatore Rural District Superintendent of Police, and consisting of officials from the Social Welfare Department and the District Child Protection Committee launched the inquiry at the sprawling premises of Isha Foundation in Thondamuthur.

 “We have launched an inquiry based on the court order,” a senior police official told DH from Coimbatore. The police team sought details of cases registered against the foundation in the past and inquired with several inmates about their condition in the ashram.

The inquiry came a day after the court ordered the police to conduct an enquiry and file a report on a habeas corpus petition filed by retired professor S Kamaraj, who alleged that his two daughters were being held captive at the ashram.

When contacted, a spokesperson for Isha Foundation admitted that a team led by the district SP was conducting an inquiry at the premises and that there were no searches. “They are enquiring with residents and volunteers, understanding the lifestyle, understanding how they come in and stay etc,” the spokesperson said.

The foundation also said the two women have clearly stated that they are staying in Isha Yoga Centre out of their own volition. “Now that the matter is seized by the court, we hope truth will prevail and there is an end to all the unnecessary controversies created,” the foundation said.

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