Indian economy to contract by 7% in FY21: SBI Research

Agencies
February 10, 2021

Image result for Indian economy to contract by 7% in FY21: SBI Research

New Delhi, Feb 10: Pencilling in a GDP growth in third and fourth quarters, SBI Research on Wednesday revised its contraction forecast for the current fiscal year to 7 per cent.

The agency had earlier forecast a 7.4 per cent contraction in 2020-21 GDP numbers. In April-September, the economy contracted 15.7 per cent but the second half may see a surprise 2.8 per cent growth if the SBI analysis turns out to be correct.

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at State Bank of India (SBI) said of the 41 high frequency leading indicators, 51 per cent are showing acceleration which should help the economy turn around to the green from the third quarter with a 0.3 percentage point growth which is likely to surprise positively when the final numbers are out.

Read | Govt aims to raise MSMEs' share in GDP to 40%: Nitin Gadkari

In April-June, the Indian economy contracted by a record 23.9 per cent, but dramatically improved to -7.5 per cent in the second quarter. In 2019-20, the economy had grown 4 per cent and in the current fiscal year, it is on course to tank by 7 per cent.

The consensus is -7.5-8 per cent with the NSO pegging it at -7 per cent and RBI at -7.5 per cent.

“We now expect GDP decline for the full year to be around -7 per cent compared to our earlier prediction of –7.4 per cent. Also, Q4 growth will also be in positive territory at around 2.5 per cent,” Ghosh said, adding promptly that the projections are conditional to the absence of any rise in infections.

“We retain our GDP forecast for FY22 at 11 per cent (RBI has pegged it at 10.5 per cent and the economy survey at 11.5 per cent and the budget did not offer a GDP estimate), but with the caveat that 11 per cent will be the floor below which it cannot fall,” he said.

Corporate results so far also reinstate the fact that third quarter would be much better than the previous one. The corporate GVA of 1,129 companies has expanded by 14.7 per cent in October-December compared to 8.6 per cent in second quarter (of 3,758 companies ex- telecom)

On the fiscal gaps, it said 9.5 per cent may be on the higher side. Excluding off-balance sheet liabilities, fiscal deficit will be 8.7 per cent gross tax collection estimate based on revised 2020-21 numbers and collections till December show tax collections will have a degrowth of 8.9 per cent in March quarter on a sequential basis. But in 2021-22 collection may top the budget estimate of Rs 22.17 lakh crore, or 9.9 per cent of GDP.

Also Read | Wrong to term economic crisis act of God, govt policies responsible: CPI

Meanwhile, cash balances of the Centre has declined from the peak Rs 3.4 lakh crore to around Rs 2.3 lakh crore as on February 8.

Given that 85-90 per cent of such cash balances belonged to states that was invested with the Centre, it is possible that states before the closing of accounts of 2020-21 want to spend the cash rather than preserving. 

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.
News Network
October 2,2024

truepromise.jpg

Sirens sounded all over the occupied territories on Tuesday night as Iran launched hundreds of missiles towards the Zionist entity, in a retaliatory attack dubbed Operation True Promise II. 

Meanwhile, Israeli officials have promised to respond after Iran fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at key military and security targets in Israel.

Flares and missiles were seen in the Tel Aviv sky and explosions could be heard in the occupied al-Quds, sending Zionist settlers fleeing into shelters.

The Israel Airports Authority said that no aircraft will be allowed to take off or arrive at all Israeli airports. Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported “direct hits” in Negev, Sharon and other locations from Iran’s attack.

The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) issued a statement shortly after the missile attack began.

It said in response to the martyrdom of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyah, Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and IRGC commander Abbas Nilforoushan, the IRGC Aerospace Force launched dozens of ballistic missiles targeting key military and intelligence bases in the heart of the occupied territories.

The IRGC further said that the attack was in line with the country’s right to legitimate self-defense as per the United Nations Charter, and in response to the regime's escalating crimes—backed by the United States—against the people of Lebanon and Gaza.

The Zionist regime will face more crushing attacks in case it reacts to Iran’s operation, the IRGC added.

In a follow-up statement, the IRGC said three Israeli military bases in Tel Aviv were hit during the operation.

In this operation, a number of air and radar bases, as well as centers for conspiracy and assassination planning against resistance leaders and IRGC commanders were targeted, the statement said.

The IRGC noted that even though the designated areas were shielded by advanced defense systems, 90% of the missiles shot successfully hit their targets.

“The Zionist regime has been terrified by the intelligence and operational dominance of the Islamic Republic,” it added.

The Iranian mission to the United Nations said in a statement that the missile attack was a “legal, rational, and legitimate” response to the terrorist acts of the Zionist regime.

It also warned the Israeli regime that a more “crushing” response would ensue should it dare to respond or commit further acts of malevolence.

Celebratory gunfire erupted in southern Beirut, where Hezbollah chief Nasrallah was killed in a massive Israeli airstrike last week, following Iran’s retaliatory attack.

“Heavy gunfire heard from automatic weapons from areas of the southern suburbs, rejoicing in the missile launch from Iran towards Israel,” Lebanon’s National News Agency said.

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.
News Network
October 2,2024

The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has issued a travel advisory for Indian citizens in light of the escalating tensions in the Middle East, specifically advising against non-essential travel to Iran.

"We are closely monitoring the recent escalation in the security situation in the region. Indian nationals are advised to avoid all non-essential travel to Iran. Those currently residing in Iran are requested to remain vigilant and stay in contact with the Indian Embassy in Tehran," the Ministry of External Affairs said.

For those already residing in the country, the MEA advised vigilance and recommended staying in close contact with the Indian Embassy in Tehran for any assistance. The situation continues to be under observation as tensions in the region unfold.

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.
News Network
September 23,2024

gadkari.jpg

Nagpur: Union Minister Nitin Gadkari on Sunday teased his cabinet colleague Ramdas Athawale over his ability to hold onto his cabinet spot across multiple governments. "It may not be guaranteed that our government will return for a fourth term, but what is definitely guaranteed is that Ramdas Athawale will become a minister," he remarked at an event in Maharashtra's Nagpur.

The playful jibe, with Mr Athawale present on stage, was followed by Mr Gadkari clarifying that he was "just joking."

Mr Athawale, leader of the Republican Party of India (RPI), has served as a minister three times and expressed confidence in continuing his streak if the BJP returns to power.

Mr Athawale on Sunday said his party RPI (A), an ally in the ruling Mahayuti government in Maharashtra, should get to contest on at least 10 to 12 seats in the upcoming assembly elections. Addressing a press conference in Nagpur, Mr Athawale said the RPI-A will contest the election on its party symbol and ask for three to four seats in Vidarbha, including north Nagpur, Umred (Nagpur), Umarkhed in Yavatmal and Washim.

Mr Athawale's party is part of the Mahayuti alliance, comprising the BJP, Shiv Sena led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar's NCP.

The Union minister said, "The RPI-A has made a list of 18 probable seats, which it will be sharing with the Mahayuti partners in a few days and expects to get at least 10 to 12 seats in the seat-sharing pact." He said the BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP should give four seats each from their quota for his party.

In Palghar earlier this week, Mr Athawale claimed that due to the inclusion of the Ajit Pawar-led NCP in the Mahayuti government, the RPI (A) did not get any ministerial berth in the state despite a promise.

He claimed that the party was promised cabinet positions, chairmanship of two corporations, and roles in district-level committees, but all this could not happen because of Pawar's inclusion.

The elections to 288 assembly seats in Maharashtra are likely to be held in November.

In the current assembly, the BJP is the single largest party with 103 MLAs, followed by Shiv Sena 40, NCP 41, Congress 40, Shiv Sena (UBT) 15, NCP (SP) 13 and others 29. Some seats are vacant. 

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.