Indian economy to contract by 7% in FY21: SBI Research

Agencies
February 10, 2021

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New Delhi, Feb 10: Pencilling in a GDP growth in third and fourth quarters, SBI Research on Wednesday revised its contraction forecast for the current fiscal year to 7 per cent.

The agency had earlier forecast a 7.4 per cent contraction in 2020-21 GDP numbers. In April-September, the economy contracted 15.7 per cent but the second half may see a surprise 2.8 per cent growth if the SBI analysis turns out to be correct.

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at State Bank of India (SBI) said of the 41 high frequency leading indicators, 51 per cent are showing acceleration which should help the economy turn around to the green from the third quarter with a 0.3 percentage point growth which is likely to surprise positively when the final numbers are out.

Read | Govt aims to raise MSMEs' share in GDP to 40%: Nitin Gadkari

In April-June, the Indian economy contracted by a record 23.9 per cent, but dramatically improved to -7.5 per cent in the second quarter. In 2019-20, the economy had grown 4 per cent and in the current fiscal year, it is on course to tank by 7 per cent.

The consensus is -7.5-8 per cent with the NSO pegging it at -7 per cent and RBI at -7.5 per cent.

“We now expect GDP decline for the full year to be around -7 per cent compared to our earlier prediction of –7.4 per cent. Also, Q4 growth will also be in positive territory at around 2.5 per cent,” Ghosh said, adding promptly that the projections are conditional to the absence of any rise in infections.

“We retain our GDP forecast for FY22 at 11 per cent (RBI has pegged it at 10.5 per cent and the economy survey at 11.5 per cent and the budget did not offer a GDP estimate), but with the caveat that 11 per cent will be the floor below which it cannot fall,” he said.

Corporate results so far also reinstate the fact that third quarter would be much better than the previous one. The corporate GVA of 1,129 companies has expanded by 14.7 per cent in October-December compared to 8.6 per cent in second quarter (of 3,758 companies ex- telecom)

On the fiscal gaps, it said 9.5 per cent may be on the higher side. Excluding off-balance sheet liabilities, fiscal deficit will be 8.7 per cent gross tax collection estimate based on revised 2020-21 numbers and collections till December show tax collections will have a degrowth of 8.9 per cent in March quarter on a sequential basis. But in 2021-22 collection may top the budget estimate of Rs 22.17 lakh crore, or 9.9 per cent of GDP.

Also Read | Wrong to term economic crisis act of God, govt policies responsible: CPI

Meanwhile, cash balances of the Centre has declined from the peak Rs 3.4 lakh crore to around Rs 2.3 lakh crore as on February 8.

Given that 85-90 per cent of such cash balances belonged to states that was invested with the Centre, it is possible that states before the closing of accounts of 2020-21 want to spend the cash rather than preserving. 

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News Network
October 3,2024

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Bengaluru: The Karnataka Food Safety and Quality Department has issued an urgent warning following the discovery of potentially cancer-causing chemicals in cakes sold by certain bakeries across the state.

Recent tests conducted by the department revealed that some cake samples, particularly those with vibrant colors, contain harmful synthetic coloring agents such as Allura Red, a substance known to pose health risks. The findings have raised concerns about the use of artificial colors in bakery products, especially given their potential link to cancer and other serious health conditions.

"We routinely test various food products, and this time, our officials noticed unusually dark-colored cakes on the market," said Srinivas K, Commissioner of Food Safety for Karnataka. "Upon testing, we found that a few cakes contained Allura Red, a synthetic dye associated with health risks."

The use of artificial colors, especially in popular cakes like red velvet and pineapple varieties, is widespread as it attracts customers, particularly children. However, many bakers prefer using natural, safer alternatives, while some opt for synthetic dyes to enhance the cake's visual appeal.

"Most bakeries use permissible, natural colors that are safe for consumption. Unfortunately, a few are resorting to synthetic dyes just to make their cakes more attractive," said a bakery owner from Electronic City, speaking anonymously.

Medical experts are warning that consuming synthetic colors can lead to numerous health issues, including asthma and allergic reactions.

"Some of these artificial dyes are carcinogenic, and prolonged exposure could have serious consequences, especially for children and young adults," cautioned Dr. Vandana G, a private medical practitioner.

While the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) confirms that only a limited number of samples tested positive for harmful colors, legal action is being taken against the violators.

"There is no need for widespread panic or halting production. We are closely monitoring the situation, and only a few bakeries were found to be non-compliant. Rest assured, appropriate legal measures are underway," assured an FSSAI official. 

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News Network
September 28,2024

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A new wave of Israeli airstrikes have reportedly hit the Dahiyeh area in the south of Lebanon’s capital Beirut, which had come under deadly aerial attacks by the regime just hours earlier.

The strikes targeted several buildings in the al-Hadath and Laylaki neighborhoods in the area on Saturday.

Shortly afterwards, reports pointed to “a third wave of strikes” on al-Hadath as well as strikes against Choueifat, another southern Beirut suburb, with subsequent accounts putting the total number of the attacks at more than 30.

The Israeli military claimed that it was conducting strikes targeting “weapons belonging to Hezbollah…that were stored beneath civilian buildings” in southern Beirut.

Hezbollah's Media Relations’ Office, however, asserted, “The enemy's claims about the presence of weapons or weapons depots in the civilian buildings targeted by the bombing in the southern suburb are false.”

Simultaneous Israeli airstrikes targeted areas near the city of Tyre in southern Lebanon, including al-Bass, Burj al-Shamali, and al-Maashouq.

Also on Saturday, the United Nations humanitarian coordinator in Lebanon warned that the country was facing bloodshed not seen in decades, and that the crisis could deteriorate even further.

"The recent escalations in Lebanon are nothing short of catastrophic,” Imran Riza said. “We are witnessing the deadliest period in Lebanon in a generation, and many express their fear that this is just the beginning.”

On Friday, Israeli warplanes struck at least six residential structures in Dahiyeh's Haret Hreik neighborhood, killing at least eight people and wounding some 80 others.

The attacks came as part of the regime’s escalation against Lebanon that has been targeting the country since October 7, when Tel Aviv launched a genocidal war on the Gaza Strip.

The escalation has taken a deadlier turn since Monday, claiming the lives of more than 700 people across the country.

Hezbollah has been responding to the aggression with numerous retaliatory operations targeting the occupied Palestinian territories.

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News Network
October 1,2024

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Mysuru, Oct 1: The Karnataka Lokayukta team on Tuesday arrived at the disputed plot in Mysuru and began investigation into the MUDA case against CM Siddaramaiah and his wife, news agency ANI reported. Snehamayi Krishna, the complainant in the case was also present with the team.

Sources stated that ED sleuths might issue a notice to CM Siddaramaiah at any time and issue summons to him for questioning. The sleuths are also keenly watching the movements of CM Siddaramaiah’s close associates and relatives, including a cabinet minister in connection with the MUDA scam.

Sources further said that there is a possibility of the ED conducting raids across the state on offices and residences of close associates of CM Siddaramaiah. The ED has also gathered information on bank accounts and financial transactions of CM Siddaramaiah and his associates.

The Directorate of Enforcement (ED) on Monday registered an Enforcement Case Information Report (ECIR), equivalent to an FIR by the police, against CM Siddaramaiah over the alleged irregularities in the allotment of 14 sites to his wife Parvathi B.M. by the Mysore Urban Development Authority. The ED registered the case taking cognisance of the FIR registered against the Chief Minister by the Lokayukta police on September 27.

Meanwhile, the Karnataka Lokayukta probing the MUDA case has also expedited the probe. The sleuths led by Mysuru Lokayukta SP T.J. Udesh have visited the controversial land on the outskirts of Mysuru city. The petitioner, Snehamayi Krishna, also accompanied the team.

The move of Chief Minister Siddaramaiah’s wife to return 14 sites allotted by the MUDA to her has triggered a debate. BJP MLA from Mysuru T.S. Srivatsa stated on Tuesday that the move of CM’s wife is not acceptable. "The two commissioners who colluded in the MUDA scam are roaming freely even today," he said.

"CM Siddaramaiah first claimed that there was no scam at all. Later, he formed a commission and now there is an FIR against him. After committing the mistake, you offer to return the sale deed. The time is up. He will have to tender his resignation and I am sure he won’t be in the position until Dasara festivities," MLA T.S. Srivatsa stated.

T.J. Abraham, one of the petitioners in the MUDA case said, “I had demanded the MUDA commissioner to take back the allotted sites. He had written back saying the process would be initiated. They were waiting for the investigation report."

"CM Siddaramaiah has not approached the division bench or the Supreme Court to challenge the order against him because there is nothing to be challenged. Returning sites is not a big sacrifice. The Chief Minister has lost it," Abraham stated. 
 

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