Indian economy to contract by 7% in FY21: SBI Research

Agencies
February 10, 2021

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New Delhi, Feb 10: Pencilling in a GDP growth in third and fourth quarters, SBI Research on Wednesday revised its contraction forecast for the current fiscal year to 7 per cent.

The agency had earlier forecast a 7.4 per cent contraction in 2020-21 GDP numbers. In April-September, the economy contracted 15.7 per cent but the second half may see a surprise 2.8 per cent growth if the SBI analysis turns out to be correct.

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at State Bank of India (SBI) said of the 41 high frequency leading indicators, 51 per cent are showing acceleration which should help the economy turn around to the green from the third quarter with a 0.3 percentage point growth which is likely to surprise positively when the final numbers are out.

Read | Govt aims to raise MSMEs' share in GDP to 40%: Nitin Gadkari

In April-June, the Indian economy contracted by a record 23.9 per cent, but dramatically improved to -7.5 per cent in the second quarter. In 2019-20, the economy had grown 4 per cent and in the current fiscal year, it is on course to tank by 7 per cent.

The consensus is -7.5-8 per cent with the NSO pegging it at -7 per cent and RBI at -7.5 per cent.

“We now expect GDP decline for the full year to be around -7 per cent compared to our earlier prediction of –7.4 per cent. Also, Q4 growth will also be in positive territory at around 2.5 per cent,” Ghosh said, adding promptly that the projections are conditional to the absence of any rise in infections.

“We retain our GDP forecast for FY22 at 11 per cent (RBI has pegged it at 10.5 per cent and the economy survey at 11.5 per cent and the budget did not offer a GDP estimate), but with the caveat that 11 per cent will be the floor below which it cannot fall,” he said.

Corporate results so far also reinstate the fact that third quarter would be much better than the previous one. The corporate GVA of 1,129 companies has expanded by 14.7 per cent in October-December compared to 8.6 per cent in second quarter (of 3,758 companies ex- telecom)

On the fiscal gaps, it said 9.5 per cent may be on the higher side. Excluding off-balance sheet liabilities, fiscal deficit will be 8.7 per cent gross tax collection estimate based on revised 2020-21 numbers and collections till December show tax collections will have a degrowth of 8.9 per cent in March quarter on a sequential basis. But in 2021-22 collection may top the budget estimate of Rs 22.17 lakh crore, or 9.9 per cent of GDP.

Also Read | Wrong to term economic crisis act of God, govt policies responsible: CPI

Meanwhile, cash balances of the Centre has declined from the peak Rs 3.4 lakh crore to around Rs 2.3 lakh crore as on February 8.

Given that 85-90 per cent of such cash balances belonged to states that was invested with the Centre, it is possible that states before the closing of accounts of 2020-21 want to spend the cash rather than preserving. 

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News Network
September 20,2024

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New Delhi: The Supreme Court today sought a report from the Karnataka High Court over controversial remarks made by Justice Vedavyasachar Srishananda during a recent court hearing.

Justice Srishananda, while addressing a landlord-tenant dispute, referred to a Muslim-majority area in Bengaluru as "Pakistan" and made a misogynistic comment involving a woman lawyer. 

A five-judge bench led by Chief Justice of India DY Chandrachud, along with Justices S Khanna, B R Gavai, S Kant, and H Roy, expressed the need for establishing clear guidelines for constitutional court judges regarding their remarks in court. 

The Supreme Court bench said that when social media plays an active role in monitoring and amplifying courtroom proceedings, there is an urgency to ensure judicial commentary aligns with the decorum expected from courts of law.

"Our attention has been drawn to some comments made by Karnataka High Court judge Justice V Srishananda during the conduct of judicial proceedings. We have asked the AG and SG to assist us. We ask the registrar general of the High Court to submit a report to this court after seeking administrative directions from the Chief Justice of Karnataka High Court. This exercise may be carried out in 2 weeks," the top court directed.

Videos of Justice Srishanananda have gone viral on social media.

In one video, he refers to a Muslim-dominated locality in Bengaluru as "Pakistan" and on another video he was seen making objectionable comments against a woman lawyer. In the second incident, Justice Srishanananda can be heard telling the woman lawyer that she seemed to know a lot about the "opposition party", so much so that she might be able to reveal the colour of their undergarments.

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News Network
October 1,2024

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Mysuru: The Mysuru land authority at the centre of a financial and political storm - involving Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and alleged losses of ₹ 45 crore to the state - has received an offer of restitution from his wife, the urban development body's Commissioner, AN Raghunandan said.

"I am in possession of a letter written by Siddaramaiah's wife regarding her intention to return 14 plots (of land). The Chief Minister's son, Yatindra Siddaramaiah, came to our office and delivered the letter. We will take legal advice for the next step..." he told reporters in Mysuru.

Mr Raghunandan also confirmed anti-corruption officials from the city's Lokayukta branch had written seeking cooperation in its inquiry into the charges against the Chief Minister.

He said the Mysuru Urban Development Authority, or MUDA, "will cooperate with the investigation".

The Enforcement Directorate, however, have not reached out as yet, Mr Raghunandan said. The ED, a federal agency, has filed a money laundering case against Siddaramaiah.

There have also been calls for the CBI, another federal agency, to investigate charges against the Chief Minister, but that appears unlikely now given the Karnataka government has withdrawn general consent for its operations in the state. Law Minister HK Patil made the announcement last week.

He ruled out any link with demands for the Chief Minister to be investigated by the CBI, which reports to the BJP-led central government and the ruling Congress and other opposition parties have claimed is being used by that party to target rival leaders, particularly before elections.

On Monday - three days after the Lokayukta filed a case against the Chief Minister, and hours after the ED launched its probe- Siddaramaiah's wife said she had planned to give up the land earlier but was advised against it the allegations against her husband are "politically motivated".

But now, she said, she had made up her mind as "no house, plot, or wealth is more important than my husband's honor, dignity, and peace of mind". She also said the decision was hers alone; "... I am not aware of my husband's opinion on this matter, nor do I concern myself with what my son thinks".

And, in a comment seen as a calculated swipe at the opposition BJP, which is leading calls for the Chief Minister's resignation, his wife also made an emotional appeal to "all political parties and the media" to "please not drag women of political families into the controversy to settle political scores".

Investigative action against the Chief Minister follows the Karnataka High Court quashing a challenge to Governor Thawar Chand Gehlot's order sanctioning Siddaramaiah's prosecution.

Subsequently a trial court ordered framing of charges and directed the Lokayukta to complete the investigation within three months. The ED case was filed based on the Lokayukta FIR.

Siddaramaiah faces an inquiry into claims Parvathi was allotted 14 plots of land in an upmarket Mysuru area as compensation for land elsewhere - holding a far lower value - taken for infrastructure projects.

The Chief Minister has denied all charges and refused calls to resign.

He has been backed by the Congress and his deputy, DK Shivakumar, who is also the state unit boss, and also by members of his cabinet, including IT Minister Priyank Kharge. However, some within the Congress also want him to quit, such as former Assembly Speaker KB Koliwad.

"I will fight. I am not afraid of anything. We are ready to face the investigation. I will fight this legally," he said last week after the High Court had quashed his challenge to the Governor's sanction.

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News Network
October 1,2024

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The Israeli regime has conducted a series of deadly airstrikes on the Syrian capital of Damascus, with Syrian media reporting three rounds of strikes in the capital area in one night.

An Israeli aircraft launched several missiles from the occupied Golan Heights on Tuesday, targeting locations southwest of Damascus.

Syrian air defenses successfully intercepted many of these missiles, according to the Syrian state media.

According to the Syrian military, the Israeli aggression led to the martyrdom of three civilians, the injury of nine others, and significant damage to private property.

The Al Mayadeen news outlet reports that local journalist Safaa Ahmad was among those killed in the attack, which hit the Mezzeh neighborhood in the Syrian capital. Rescue crews are dealing with fires on the ground.

Syrian television said one of its anchors was killed in the Israeli strike on Damascus on Tuesday.

State television said in a statement that it "mourns anchor Safaa Ahmad who was martyred in the Israeli aggression on the capital Damascus."

The official SANA news agency earlier said "air defense systems are intercepting hostile targets for the third time tonight in the Damascus area," using a phrase that usually refers to Israeli aggression.

Subsequently, another wave of attacks was aimed at the suburbs of Damascus which was intercepted by air defenses.

Syria has consistently called on the UN Security Council to take action against these assaults, which it views as clear violations of its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Israel frequently targets military positions inside Syria, especially those of the Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah which has played a key role in helping the Syrian army in its fight against foreign-backed terrorists.

The Tel Aviv regime rarely comments on its attacks on Syrian territories, which many see as a knee-jerk reaction to the Syrian government’s phenomenal success in confronting and decimating terrorism.

Damascus has time and again called on the UN Security Council to put an end to the regime’s attacks that violate Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The Israeli attacks on Syria come amid the regime’s ongoing genocide in the Gaza Strip which has killed more than 41,600 people, mostly women and children, over the past year.

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