Indian economy not recovering, may contract 25% in current fiscal: Economist Arun Kumar

News Network
January 17, 2021

The Indian economy is not recovering as fast as the government claims and the country's economy may contract 25 per cent in the current financial year, noted economist Arun Kumar said on Sunday.

Kumar further said that due to a big decline in the GDP during the current financial year, the budget estimates have gone completely out of gear and, therefore, there is a need to correct the Budget.

"India's economic growth is not recovering as fast as the government is showing because the unorganised sector has not started recovering and some major components of the services sector have not recovered.

"My analysis shows that the rate of growth will be (-)25 per cent in the current financial year because during lockdown (during April-May), only essential production was taking place and even in agriculture, there was no growth," he told PTI in an interview.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected the Indian economy to contract 7.5 per cent in the current financial year, while the National Statistical Office (NSO) estimates a contraction of 7.7 per cent.

Also, according to the NSO, the Indian economy contracted by 23.9 per cent during the April-June 2020 quarter and recovered faster than expected in the July-September 2020 quarter as a pick-up in manufacturing helped GDP clock a lower contraction of 7.5 per cent.

Kumar, a former professor of economics at JNU, said the government's own document that provided April-June and July-September quarters GDP (gross domestic product) figures said there will be a revision in the data later on.

He predicted that India's fiscal deficit will be higher than it was last year and the state's fiscal deficit will also be much higher.

"Disinvestment revenue will also be short. Tax and non-tax revenues will be short," Kumar said.

He said India's economic recovery will depend on several factors including how quickly vaccination can be done, how quickly people can go back to their work.

"We are not going back to the 2019 level of output in 2021. Maybe in 2022, after the vaccination is done, we will recover back to the 2019 level of output in 2022," Kumar said.

He added that the growth rate in the coming years will be good because of low base effect, but the output will be less than 2019.

Asked whether the government should relax the fiscal deficit target in the upcoming Budget, Kumar said, "It has been argued since July that the government should allow the fiscal deficit to rise and spend more and give money to the unorganised sector and in rural areas."

On India recently imposing fresh restrictions on foreign direct investment (FDI) from countries that share land border with India, he said, "It is a knee-jerk reaction". If you look at the past three-four years, all the start-ups had big investments from China, Kumar added.

Stressing that like China, India should also invest more on research and development, Kumar said, "We are now in a bad situation where we have to do knee-jerk reactions like raising tariffs, withdrawing from the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), and having new FDI rules, to stop investment from China."

He pointed out that when investments in India are lacking, restricting investments from outside is going to put us in further trouble.
 

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News Network
November 26,2024

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Former minister and ex-MLC C M Ibrahim claimed that he still heads the original JD(S) and asked former prime minister and party supremo H D Deve Gowda to cut ties with the BJP, so that the party can be strengthened again. He also said options are being explored to either strengthen the JD(S) or to float a new regional party.

He was speaking to media persons, in Mysuru, on Monday, after meeting JD(S) MLA and former minister G T Deve Gowda, who has expressed his displeasure that he has been sidelined in the party and the party leaders have indicated his retirement from politics.

He stated, “If Deve Gowda had joined the Congress, during the last Assembly election, he would have been a minister now. We retained him in the JD(S), to strengthen the party. Now, efforts are being made to strangulate Deve Gowda’s political career. I have discussed all matters with Deve Gowda. In two days, I will start a Karnataka state tour and meet some leaders. After that, I will meet Deve Gowda again, and then decide on the further course of action.”

Ibrahim said, “The original JD(S) is ours. I am still its state president. All documents and accounts are in our name. Even now, if Deve Gowda leaves BJP’s company and returns, we will build the JD(S) again”.

“Union Minister H D Kumaraswamy should mend his ways and stop making JD(S) into a family-owned company. The JD(S)’s situation has become hopeless. Its love for the BJP is over. He should understand this,” he said.

“When I was with Kumaraswamy, he spent just Rs 4 crore in Channapatna and won by 20,000 votes. Now, without me, he spent Rs 150 crore and still lost by 25,000 votes. Without Muslims’ support, the JD(S) cannot win a single seat. Now, it is proved that 19 MLAs of the JD(S) won in 2023, because of Muslims,” he added.

Speaking on other options available, Ibrahim said, “We have not yet decided to go with the Congress. We are only considering to establish a third front. Whether it is founding a new regional party, forming a third front, or strengthening the JD(S), will be decided shortly.”

Earlier during the day, before meeting Deve Gowda, Ibrahim had said, that 12 to 13 JD(S) MLAs were dissatisfied with the party, but like Deve Gowda, were enduring pain.

“Now, I have started the task of uniting them. I as the JD(S) state president, it is my responsibility to address our MLAs’ grievances. At present, the JD(S) is on fire and all JD(S) MLAs want to protect their respective constituency. Hence, they have started speaking one by one,” he said.

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News Network
November 13,2024

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Beirut: The Israeli army on Tuesday continued to launch attacks against civilians in Lebanon, targeting them in several areas without prior evacuation warnings.

However, 13 airstrikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs in the space of only three hours were preceded by evacuation warnings.

The attacks caused no injuries but resulted in widespread destruction of residential buildings and commercial, medical and educational centers.

The airstrikes in southern Lebanon and Bekaa region, reaching Akkar in Lebanon’s far north, erased any hope of a near-term ceasefire settlement.

The strikes were accompanied by an announcement on Israel’s Channel 14 that “the Israeli army has expanded its operations in southern Lebanon to areas it had not reached since the beginning of the ground operation.”

About 50 days have passed since Israel intensified its hostile operations in Lebanon targeting Hezbollah. The death toll from these confrontations and attacks has passed 3,200, with more than 14,000 wounded.

For the first time, an airstrike targeted a mountainous area between Baalchmay and Aabadiyeh on the road leading to Aley, destroying a building housing displaced people.

The mayor of Baalchmay, Adham Al-Danaf, confirmed that “the airstrike targeted a residential building in the Dhour Aabadiyeh area.”

The initial toll from the Ministry of Health showed “five people killed and two injured.”

The raids that targeted Beirut’s southern suburbs for the first time in the morning, unlike nightly raids before, caused huge destruction. Those who evacuated their homes after Israeli warnings, used their phones to record the collapse of empty buildings in Sfeir, Haret Hreik, Bir Al-Abed, Mrayjeh, Laylaki and Hadath.

Israeli warplanes also targeted Tyre, where a strike on a building killed three people and injured many others, while a raid on Tefahta killed a man identified as Kifah Khalil and his family.

Attacks were widespread, with Yater and Zebqine subject to artillery shelling, a civilian being killed in Hermel, and further attacks on Bouday and an area between the towns of Srifa and Arsoun.

A raid on the town of Siddiqin killed two people and injured several others, while an attack on the Mechref farm led to one fatality and multiple injuries.

The search for those missing after an Israeli raid on the town of Ain Yaacoub in Akkar, in the northernmost part of Lebanon, continued until dawn.

During the operation, 14 bodies were retrieved, identified as those of residents displaced from the town of Arabsalim in the Iqlim Al-Tuffah area of the south, along with members of a Syrian family, a mother and three of her children. Additionally, there were 10 people in critical condition.

The targeted residence belongs to a Lebanese citizen, Hussein Hashim, who is reported to be a member of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party.

An airstrike on the town of Saksakiyeh in the Sidon region on Monday night resulted in yet another tragedy.

It appeared that the intended target was the Shoumer family, who just days before lost Hussein Amin Shoumer and his two sisters in a drone strike near Al-Awali River.

Israeli army spokesperson Avichay Adraee issued additional evacuation warnings for towns in the southern region along the Litani River, which, according to estimates from the mayors, are currently 90 percent uninhabited.

In the meantime, Hezbollah announced its continued efforts to “combat the intrusions of Israeli forces and to strike military installations and towns in the north.”

Hezbollah said in a statement that it confronted “an Israeli Hermes 450 drone in the airspace of Nabatieh and forced it to leave Lebanese airspace.”

The party also announced that it targeted “Kfar Blum settlement with a rocket salvo.”

On the Israeli side, air raid sirens sounded in areas of Upper and Western Galilee and in the town of Kiryat Shmona and its surroundings.

The Israeli army confirmed that “a drone exploded in Nesher, east of Haifa, without activating the air raid sirens,” and that “a drone launched from Lebanon crashed into a school in Gesher HaZiv, north of Nahariya.”

Israel’s Channel 13 reported the Israeli military’s assessment regarding Hezbollah’s military strength, claiming that the group currently possesses approximately 100 precision missiles, thousands of artillery shells, and hundreds of rockets. Additionally, it was highlighted that “there are around 200 Lebanese towns that remain unvisited.”

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News Network
November 25,2024

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Bengaluru: Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah has instructed the Hindu Religious Endowment Department to submit a proposal for constructing a gold chariot for the presiding deity of the state, Chamundeshwari, official sources said on Monday.

The directive follows a request from Member of Legislative Council (MLC) Dinesh Gooligowda, who highlighted the historical and cultural significance of the Chamundeshwari Temple on Chamundi Hill in Mysuru, which dates back to the 12th century AD.

Gooligowda noted that the existing wooden chariot, donated by devotees from Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, has deteriorated over time.

“Devotees have expressed their desire to organise a ‘rathotsava’ using a gold chariot for Goddess Chamundeshwari. This proposal has been under consideration for some time, with an estimated cost of Rs 100 crore,” the MLC said.

He emphasised that the government’s financial involvement would not be required, as devotees are willing to contribute towards making the chariot a reality.

Gooligowda proposed a deadline for the 2025 Dasara festival for the completion of the chariot, ensuring it is ready for the grand procession featuring the idol of Chamundeshwari.

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