India's GDP contraction in FY 21 likely closer to 10%, says statistician Pronab Sen

Agencies
December 13, 2020

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New Delhi, Dec 13: India's current macroeconomic situation is "very uncertain" and the country's GDP could contract closer to 10 per cent in the current fiscal, former chief statistician Pronab Sen said on Sunday.

In an interview with PTI, Sen said that although the overall macro-management of the economy by the Modi government has not been very good but this particular slowdown is really beyond its control.

"At the moment India's current macroeconomic situation is very uncertain. I would say we should be very very cautious. I think there is too much optimism going around.

"... the actual economic growth of India could be closer to -10 per cent in 2020-21," he said.

Sen said quarterly GDP numbers are still derived from some corporate accounts and corporates have not fared as badly as the non-corporate sector.

"We know that MSMEs have been hit much harder than the corporations. So, the headline number coming out in the national accounts is an overly optimistic picture of the economy," the eminent economist said.

Sen also stressed on bringing back confidence of the investors.

Investors are new people who put their money into creating new production capacity, that is completely missing, he said, adding that until that comes back, the economy cannot grow.

"Because at the moment, as things stand our production capacity will not be very higher than what it was in 2019-20. And in fact, it will be less than that because some of the capacity may have closed down," the former chief statistician noted.

Sen, who is also heading the Standing Committee on Statistics (SCES) said the committee could not finalise its report.

India's economy recovered faster than expected in the September quarter as a pick-up in manufacturing helped the GDP clock a lower contraction of 7.5 per cent and held out hopes for further improvement on better consumer demand.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had shrunk by a massive 23.9 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal as the Covid-19 lockdown pummelled economic activity.

The second straight quarter of contraction pushed India into a technical recession for the first time.

According to the RBI, the Indian economy is likely to contract by 7.5 per cent in 2020-21.

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News Network
November 26,2024

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Mangaluru: The coastal districts of Dakshina Kannada and Udupi are witnessing a fascinating weather pattern, with chilly early mornings giving way to dry, sweltering afternoons. Over the past two days, dense fog blanketed the rural landscapes, while urban centers like Mangaluru felt the stark contrast of brisk mornings and peak afternoon heat.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) noted that in rural areas, the morning chill caused temperatures to dip by one to two degrees Celsius below the seasonal norm, intensifying the fog. Monday saw Mangaluru recording a maximum temperature of 33.3°C and a minimum of 22.6°C, reflective of the sharp day-night variation.

While mornings painted a serene picture with mist-covered trees and a cool ambiance, the afternoons proved relentless, with temperatures soaring between 11 am and 3 pm, offering little respite. Currently, there are no signs of rainfall, with forecasts predicting the continuation of this dual weather pattern for the coming days.

Local residents have mixed feelings about this weather trend. Farmers in rural areas appreciate the cool mornings that ease early chores but express concerns over the dry afternoons, which may affect crop irrigation if the dry spell prolongs. In contrast, urban dwellers are enjoying the foggy mornings but brace for the scorching afternoons.

Meteorologists attribute the sudden chill to shifts in atmospheric pressure along the coast, a precursor to possible weather transitions in December. Whether this pattern persists or leads to unexpected changes remains to be seen, but the twin districts are clearly caught in nature's dramatic play of contrasts.

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News Network
November 27,2024

Mangaluru: A five-year-long pursuit of justice continues for several youths from Dakshina Kannada who fell victim to a fraudulent food delivery job scam in Kuwait. The victims, lured by promises of lucrative overseas employment, now find themselves entangled in legal battles and financial ruin.

In a recent development, the Enforcement Directorate (ED) summoned the victims to its Mangaluru office as part of the ongoing investigation. The case, which dates back to May 28, 2019, was initially registered at the Mangaluru North police station based on a complaint filed by Usman, a resident of Jalligudde. His brother, Aboobakkar Siddique, was among the 34 victims duped by Manikya Associates, a recruitment agency operated by Prasad Shetty.

According to the complaint, the victims were promised jobs as food delivery executives in Kuwait with a salary of ₹40,000 per month. “I paid ₹80,000 to the agent and ended up spending seven harrowing months in Kuwait without any salary,” shared a victim who now works in construction. Another victim, now employed as a driver, said, “I dreamt of working abroad to support my family. I even pledged jewelry to pay the fees, but it took me years to recover financially.”

The victims allege that they were left stranded in Kuwait in January 2019 after completing all formalities. With no jobs and mounting expenses, their ordeal lasted seven months. They were eventually repatriated with the help of Indian expats and the Embassy of India in Kuwait, just two months after the complaint was filed.

The ED investigation is reportedly progressing, and victims said they were assured that their payments to the agent would be refunded soon. An ED official confirmed that efforts to ensure justice are ongoing.

For these youths, the pain of shattered dreams and financial losses has lingered for years, with many still struggling to rebuild their lives. As they await justice, their plight serves as a cautionary tale about the perils of fraudulent recruitment schemes.

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News Network
November 26,2024

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Islamabad: Four paramilitary personnel and two policemen have been killed and over 100 security personnel injured as the protest by supporters of jailed former prime minister Imran Khan turned violent prompting the federal government to deploy the army in the national capital along with shoot at sight orders on Tuesday, state-run media said.

Pakistan deployed the army amid a tense stand-off with Khan's supporters from his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) pushing forward by removing hurdles on their way to Islamabad's D-Chowk venue as the government vowed to foil their attempt “even if a curfew needs to be imposed.”

Radio Pakistan said a vehicle rammed into Pakistan Rangers personnel killing four Rangers officials on the Srinagar Highway in Islamabad late on Monday night. Five other Rangers personnel and several police officials too sustained severe injuries.

About five kilometres from this spot, a bunch of miscreants, equipped with weapons and ammunition, pelted stones on the Rangers personnel and carried out indiscriminate firing on the security personnel at Chungi No 26 in Rawalpindi, Radio Pakistan said.

It also reported that two policemen were killed but didn't provide any details.

According to Punjab police, one policeman was killed at Hakla interchange on Islamabad outskirts during clashes with the PTI protestors on Monday but it also did not give details about the second policeman.

Separately, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi said, at a late night media interaction, that more than one hundred security personnel, mostly from police, were injured and added: “One senior police officer (SP) was critically injured – he suffered a severe head injury -- due to stone-pelting by protesters.”

Radio Pakistan further reported that the Pakistan Army was called in “to deal with the miscreants with an iron hand” and “clear orders have also been issued to shoot miscreants and troublemakers on sight.”

Strongly condemning the attack on Rangers and police personnel by protesters, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, in a statement, directed to immediately identify those involved in the incident and ensure they are brought to justice.

“Attacks on police and Rangers, under the guise of a so-called peaceful protest, are condemnable,” he said, adding, the anarchist group seeks bloodshed and “Pakistan cannot afford any form of chaos or bloodshed. Bloodshed for nefarious political agenda is unacceptable and highly condemnable.”

He also instructed to provide the best possible medical facilities to those injured.

Interior Minister Naqvi said the government had offered an alternative venue to the protestors to stage their activity at Sangjani in the suburbs of the capital and apparently Khan has also agreed to it.

Despite permission given by Khan, “maybe there is a leadership above Imran Khan who has refused to accept this,” he claimed and confirmed that talks were going on with the PTI to resolve the issue and that the PTI leaders were allowed to meet Khan twice on Monday to get his input.

The government is waiting for a formal response to its offer of an alternative venue for protest and “we are now waiting for PTI’s response before taking further steps,” Naqvi added.

Naqvi also warned that “come what may, the PTI would not be allowed to stage a protest at D Chowk and even hinted of imposing a curfew if needed.”

Security sources also said that all necessary measures are being taken to counter terrorist activities by disruptive and extremist elements. “All the miscreants are also being identified to bring them to justice,” the sources added.

Meanwhile, the PTI accused the authorities of using violence in which several of its supporters have been injured. A PTI spokesman told BBC Urdu that at least two supporters have also been killed but it was not confirmed from other sources so far.

Khan, 72, the PTI founder, has been in jail since August 5, 2023, and had given the ‘final call’ for the protest to force the authorities to release all prisoners, including himself, and also restore the alleged stolen mandate or victory of his party in February 8 elections as well as rescind the last month's 26th constitutional amendment allowing the government more powers over judiciary.

Earlier on Sunday, led by Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur and Khan's wife, Bushra Bibi, the PTI supporters began their journey from the militancy-hit province with a mission to make it to D-Chowk in the national capital but faced obstacles on the roads.

The D-Chowk, close to several important government buildings: the Presidency, the PM Office, the Parliament, and the Supreme Court, is a prime location in the national capital.

The authorities had blocked the highways by placing shipping containers but the protestors accompanied by lifting equipment and other heavy machines worked their way by removing hurdles, but the hurdles did skittle their speed and plans.

The convoy entered Islamabad from Sangjani toll plaza. The party also shared footage of the KP convoy in Islamabad’s limits.

The government already banned rallies by imposing Section 144, a colonial era law used to outlaw political activities, as a high level delegation from Belarus was visiting Pakistan.

At least one policeman was killed and dozen others injured in clashes on Monday as thousands of the PTI protestors entered the territorial jurisdiction of the national capital. In one of the clashes, a policeman was killed at the Hakla interchange on Islamabad outskirts.

Another constable of the Sargodha police was injured due to “firing by miscreants” and was being treated, local media said, adding, dozens of other policemen too were injured in the clashes, but exact details were not available.

As the convoy entered the capital territory in the evening, Bushra Bibi said in a video message: “My brothers, as long as Imran is not with us, we will not end this march.”

Meanwhile, as announced on Monday, all public and private educational institutions would remain closed in view of the law and order situation both at Islamabad and Rawalpindi on Tuesday.

Khan has been implicated in dozens of cases since his government was dismissed through a no-confidence motion in 2022. He has been in Adiala Jail at Rawalpindi since last year facing over 200 cases.

His party won the largest number of seats in the February general elections despite contesting as independents as the party was denied an election symbol.

The party founder has alleged that the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and its coalition partners, including the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), had “stolen the mandate” to grab power at the federal level.

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