India's GDP contraction in FY 21 likely closer to 10%, says statistician Pronab Sen

Agencies
December 13, 2020

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New Delhi, Dec 13: India's current macroeconomic situation is "very uncertain" and the country's GDP could contract closer to 10 per cent in the current fiscal, former chief statistician Pronab Sen said on Sunday.

In an interview with PTI, Sen said that although the overall macro-management of the economy by the Modi government has not been very good but this particular slowdown is really beyond its control.

"At the moment India's current macroeconomic situation is very uncertain. I would say we should be very very cautious. I think there is too much optimism going around.

"... the actual economic growth of India could be closer to -10 per cent in 2020-21," he said.

Sen said quarterly GDP numbers are still derived from some corporate accounts and corporates have not fared as badly as the non-corporate sector.

"We know that MSMEs have been hit much harder than the corporations. So, the headline number coming out in the national accounts is an overly optimistic picture of the economy," the eminent economist said.

Sen also stressed on bringing back confidence of the investors.

Investors are new people who put their money into creating new production capacity, that is completely missing, he said, adding that until that comes back, the economy cannot grow.

"Because at the moment, as things stand our production capacity will not be very higher than what it was in 2019-20. And in fact, it will be less than that because some of the capacity may have closed down," the former chief statistician noted.

Sen, who is also heading the Standing Committee on Statistics (SCES) said the committee could not finalise its report.

India's economy recovered faster than expected in the September quarter as a pick-up in manufacturing helped the GDP clock a lower contraction of 7.5 per cent and held out hopes for further improvement on better consumer demand.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had shrunk by a massive 23.9 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal as the Covid-19 lockdown pummelled economic activity.

The second straight quarter of contraction pushed India into a technical recession for the first time.

According to the RBI, the Indian economy is likely to contract by 7.5 per cent in 2020-21.

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News Network
November 15,2024

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Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has killed or captured 69 terrorists linked to the Israeli spy agency Mossad during a major counterterrorism drill in the country's southeast, its spokesman says.  

General Ahmad Shafaei, the spokesman for the “Martyrs of Security” drill, said Friday that a total of 23 terrorists have been killed and another 46 arrested in various clean-up operations ever since the IRGC Ground Force launched it in the Sistan and Baluchestan province on November 1.

Seven terrorists have also turned themselves in during the period.

“The undeniable fact about terrorists is that they rely on arrogant powers, particularly the intelligence service of the wicked and vicious Zionist regime," Shafaei said.

“Unfortunately, weapons and munitions at terrorists’ disposal are among the most sophisticated ones in the world. This accounts for their heavy dependence.” 

The official stated that several members of the disbanded terror teams were non-Iranian nationals, who had been hired by foreign intelligence agencies to carry out acts of sabotage and terror inside Iran.

In a most recent operation, six terrorists were arrested and four others were eliminated, three of whom were non-Iranians, he added. 

On October 26, ten members of Iran's law enforcement forces were killed in a terrorist attack in the Gohar Kuh district of Taftan in the Sistan and Baluchestan province.

The so-called Jaish al-Adl terrorist group claimed responsibility for the assault, which was one of the deadliest in the province in recent months.

The group has carried out numerous terrorist attacks in Iran, primarily in Sistan and Baluchestan.

Its tactics include the abduction of border guards as well as targeting civilians and police stations within the province to incite chaos and disorder.

In January, Iran launched a military operation during which the headquarters of the Pakistan-based terrorist group was targeted in missile strikes, destroying its infrastructure.

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News Network
November 27,2024

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Gaza health authorities say Israel’s military has "erased” over 1,400 Palestinian families in the besieged territory over the past year.

The Health Ministry said in a statement on Tuesday that the Israeli regime "completely erased about 1,410 families, numbering 5,444 people, from the civil registry during the same period.”

It said that there were 3,463 families with only one survivor, while 2,287 families had more than one survivor.

In northern Gaza, Israel’s warplanes have continued dropping bombs over Palestinian families, Palestinian news agency Wafa reported.

It said one airstrike hit a family home in Jabalia, causing numerous casualties on Tuesday.

According to Gaza's civil defense agency, at least seven people were killed and several others wounded in the attack.

Another person was killed in a strike on a house in nearby Beit Lahia, a town in northern Gaza, which has been declared “a disaster area" by the municipality due to "the Israeli war of extermination and siege, and it has no food, water, hospitals, doctors, services, or communications."

The health ministry said, “Israeli forces killed 14 people and injured 108 others in three massacres of families in the last 24 hours.”

“Many people are still trapped under the rubble and on the roads as rescuers are unable to reach them.”

International organizations and leaders believe that Israel’s genocidal war, now in its second year, is a deliberate attempt to destroy the population of Gaza.

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News Network
November 19,2024

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The Karnataka Police’s Anti-Naxal Force (ANF) achieved a major breakthrough on Monday night by eliminating Vikram Gowda, one of Karnataka’s most wanted Naxal leaders for over two decades. The encounter occurred in the dense Kabbinale forest of Udupi district, marking a significant victory against Naxal insurgency in the region.

Who Was Vikram Gowda?

Hailing from Hebri in Udupi, Vikram Gowda, 44, was a prominent figure in the Naxal movement. He went underground in 2002, initially serving as a courier and fund collector before rising to lead a breakaway Naxal group. Despite having only a fourth-grade education, he was a staunch advocate for tribal rights and a key player in the movement’s survival in Karnataka.

Bounty: ₹3 lakh from Karnataka and ₹50,000 from Kerala.

Legacy: The last major Naxal leader in Karnataka after the 2021 arrest of B G Krishnamurthy.

The Encounter

Police revealed that Gowda and his team visited Kabbinale village to collect groceries on Monday night. Acting on a tip-off, ANF ambushed the group. When the Naxals opened fire, ANF responded, leading to Gowda's death.

Escapees: Three Naxals fled, including prominent members Latha (aka Mundgaru Latha) and Raju.

Significance: This was the first Naxal casualty in Karnataka in over two decades.

Home Minister G. Parameshwara confirmed the operation, stating, “Gowda was elusive for 20 years, escaping multiple encounters. His death is a critical step in dismantling Naxal operations in the region.”

The Decline of Naxal Activity in Karnataka

Karnataka's Naxal movement has been dwindling, with members seeking refuge in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. The group’s strength had reduced to just 19 members by 2018, but recent sightings indicate attempts at revival:

2023 Activity: Reports of Gowda-led movements in the Kodagu and Hassan districts reignited concerns.

Political Heat: The BJP criticised the Congress government, alleging it created a “safe haven” for Naxals.

A Glimpse into Gowda’s Past

Personal Life: Gowda’s ex-wife, Savitri (alias Rajita), was arrested in 2021. She was a senior Naxal commander involved in insurgency since 2004.
Rehabilitation Efforts: Since 2013, Karnataka’s rehabilitation policy has seen 14 Naxals surrender and reintegrate into mainstream society.

A Milestone in Karnataka’s Fight Against Insurgency

The operation signifies a decisive blow to Naxal resurgence in the Western Ghats. While the ANF continues its search for escapees, the Karnataka government reaffirmed its commitment to offering rehabilitation to those willing to surrender.

As Karnataka celebrates this triumph, the message is clear: there is no room for insurgency in the state.

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