Inflation set to spike in UAE, other Gulf countries due to Russia-Ukraine war

News Network
May 30, 2022

Economists have warned that Inflation in the wider Middle East including the Gulf Cooperation Council countries will spike this year due to an increase in food and commodity prices after the Russia-Ukraine war.

“The UAE economy has had a strong start to 2022, with crude oil production up 12 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of this year. Survey data points to a solid expansion in non-oil sectors as well. We expect inflation to average 4.3 per cent this year from 2.3 per cent previously, significantly higher than last year’s 0.2 per cent average consumer price index,” said Emirates NBD Research in a recent quarterly report on the region.

It is projected that the inflation will ease to 2.5 per cent for the UAE next year.

While inflation in most of the other Gulf countries will also witness a surge this year, with average inflation reaching 3.0 per cent, 3.5 per cent, 2.5 per cent, 3.5 per cent and 3.0 per cent in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain, respectively.

The increase in inflation is attributed to the impact of the Ukraine-Russia war on the global food and other commodity prices as well as high crude oil prices.

James Swanston, economist for the Mena region at Capital Economics, said non-Gulf economies are more vulnerable to the fallout from the Ukraine war.

“Higher commodity prices will increase subsidy costs in North Africa, which is likely to prompt governments to cut expenditure elsewhere. At the same time, inflation will rise further and erode households’ real incomes,” he said.

He said higher commodity prices will also cause external positions to deteriorate further.

Recently, Egypt responded to this by devaluing the pound in March, and Swanston believes Cairo will need to let the currency fall further. “This will push inflation up, even more, taking it well above the central bank’s target range and prompting another 350bp of interest rate hikes (to 12.75 per cent) by year-end – this is far more tightening than most currently expect.”

James Swanston projected that inflation will increase in Saudi Arabia in the coming months due to the impact of rising global food prices.

“However, we do not expect the headline rate to rise to levels seen elsewhere in the emerging world, particularly as the government has kept a cap on local fuel prices since July last year. Inflation should peak around 2.5 per cent and then fall back to around 1.0-1.5 per cent year-on-year where it will remain throughout 2023-24. If the government does loosen fiscal policy by cutting value-added tax (VAT), this would knock inflation further down,” he added.

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News Network
November 19,2024

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The Karnataka Police’s Anti-Naxal Force (ANF) achieved a major breakthrough on Monday night by eliminating Vikram Gowda, one of Karnataka’s most wanted Naxal leaders for over two decades. The encounter occurred in the dense Kabbinale forest of Udupi district, marking a significant victory against Naxal insurgency in the region.

Who Was Vikram Gowda?

Hailing from Hebri in Udupi, Vikram Gowda, 44, was a prominent figure in the Naxal movement. He went underground in 2002, initially serving as a courier and fund collector before rising to lead a breakaway Naxal group. Despite having only a fourth-grade education, he was a staunch advocate for tribal rights and a key player in the movement’s survival in Karnataka.

Bounty: ₹3 lakh from Karnataka and ₹50,000 from Kerala.

Legacy: The last major Naxal leader in Karnataka after the 2021 arrest of B G Krishnamurthy.

The Encounter

Police revealed that Gowda and his team visited Kabbinale village to collect groceries on Monday night. Acting on a tip-off, ANF ambushed the group. When the Naxals opened fire, ANF responded, leading to Gowda's death.

Escapees: Three Naxals fled, including prominent members Latha (aka Mundgaru Latha) and Raju.

Significance: This was the first Naxal casualty in Karnataka in over two decades.

Home Minister G. Parameshwara confirmed the operation, stating, “Gowda was elusive for 20 years, escaping multiple encounters. His death is a critical step in dismantling Naxal operations in the region.”

The Decline of Naxal Activity in Karnataka

Karnataka's Naxal movement has been dwindling, with members seeking refuge in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. The group’s strength had reduced to just 19 members by 2018, but recent sightings indicate attempts at revival:

2023 Activity: Reports of Gowda-led movements in the Kodagu and Hassan districts reignited concerns.

Political Heat: The BJP criticised the Congress government, alleging it created a “safe haven” for Naxals.

A Glimpse into Gowda’s Past

Personal Life: Gowda’s ex-wife, Savitri (alias Rajita), was arrested in 2021. She was a senior Naxal commander involved in insurgency since 2004.
Rehabilitation Efforts: Since 2013, Karnataka’s rehabilitation policy has seen 14 Naxals surrender and reintegrate into mainstream society.

A Milestone in Karnataka’s Fight Against Insurgency

The operation signifies a decisive blow to Naxal resurgence in the Western Ghats. While the ANF continues its search for escapees, the Karnataka government reaffirmed its commitment to offering rehabilitation to those willing to surrender.

As Karnataka celebrates this triumph, the message is clear: there is no room for insurgency in the state.

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News Network
November 21,2024

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The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former minister of military affairs Yoav Gallant over war crimes against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

The court’s Pre-Trial Chamber I issued warrants of arrest for Netanyahu and Gallant "for crimes against humanity and war crimes committed from at least 8 October 2023 until at least 20 May 2024, the day the Prosecution filed the applications for warrants of arrest”, it confirmed in a statement Thursday.

It is the first instance in the court's 22-year history it has issued arrest warrants for Western-allied senior officials.

In its statement, the ICC's Pre-Trial Chamber I, a panel of three judges, said it has rejected appeals by Israel challenging its jurisdiction. 

The chamber said it has decided to release the arrest warrants because "conduct similar to that addressed in the warrant of arrest appears to be ongoing", referring to Israel's ongoing onslaught on Gaza.

Netanyahu and Gallant, it said, “each bear criminal responsibility” for “the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare; and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts,” as well as “intentionally directing an attack against the civilian population.”

All 124 states that signed the Rome Statute, the treaty that established the court, are now under an obligation to arrest the wanted individuals and hand them over to the ICC in the Hague. 

The court relies on the cooperation of member states to arrest and surrender suspects. The Netherlands' foreign minister quickly said his country was prepared to enforce the warrants while 93 nations earlier reiterated their support for the ICC.

Triestino Mariniello, a lawyer representing Palestinian victims at the ICC, called the warrants "a historic decision".

He noted that the court had endured "pressure and threats of sanctions" from the US government, but acted nonetheless.

As expected, the Tel Aviv regime rejected the rulings, with its security minister Itamar Ben Gvir calling the warrants “anti-Semitic through and through.”

The ICC said Israel’s acceptance of the court’s jurisdiction was not required.

Israel and its major ally, the United States, are not members of the court. 

Israel unleashed its bloody Gaza onslaught on October 7, 2023. So far, it has killed at least 43,985 Palestinians, mostly women and children, and injured 104,092 others, according to the Gaza Health Ministry.

Israel faces an ongoing South Africa-led genocide case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

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News Network
November 12,2024

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The Taliban regime has appointed Ikramuddin Kamil as the acting consul in the Afghan mission in Mumbai, Afghan media has reported.

It is the first such appointment made by the Taliban set up to any Afghan mission in India.

There was no immediate comment from the Indian side on the appointment that came.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan has announced the appointment of Kamil as the acting consul in Mumbai, the Taliban-controlled Bakhtar News Agency reported on Monday, citing unnamed sources.

"He is currently in Mumbai, where he is fulfilling his duties as a diplomat representing the Islamic Emirate," it said.

The appointment is part of Kabul's efforts to strengthen diplomatic ties with India and enhance its presence abroad, the media outlet said

Kamil holds a PhD degree in international law and previously served as the deputy director in the department of security cooperation and border affairs in the foreign ministry, it said.

He is expected to facilitate consular services and represent the interests of Afghanistan in India, the report added.

Kamil's appointment comes days after the external affairs ministry's point-person for Afghanistan held talks with the Taliban's acting defence minister, Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob, in Kabul.

Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, the Taliban's deputy foreign minister for political affairs, also posted on X about Kamil's appointment.

The appointment of Kamil is seen as part of efforts to facilitate consular services to the Afghan population in Mumbai.

There has been almost negligible presence of diplomatic staff at the Afghan missions in India.

Most of the diplomats appointed by the Ashraf Ghani government have already left India.

In May, Zakia Wardak, the seniormost Afghan diplomat in India, resigned from her position after reports emerged that she was caught at the Mumbai airport for allegedly trying to smuggle 25 kg of gold worth Rs 18.6 crore from Dubai.

Wardak had taken charge as the acting ambassador of Afghanistan to New Delhi late last year, after working as the Afghan consul general in Mumbai for more than two years.

She took charge of the Afghan embassy in New Delhi last November, after the mission helmed by then ambassador Farid Mamundzay announced its closure.

Mamundzay, who was an appointee of the Ghani government, had moved to the United Kingdom.

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