India's GDP contraction in FY 21 likely closer to 10%, says statistician Pronab Sen

Agencies
December 13, 2020

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New Delhi, Dec 13: India's current macroeconomic situation is "very uncertain" and the country's GDP could contract closer to 10 per cent in the current fiscal, former chief statistician Pronab Sen said on Sunday.

In an interview with PTI, Sen said that although the overall macro-management of the economy by the Modi government has not been very good but this particular slowdown is really beyond its control.

"At the moment India's current macroeconomic situation is very uncertain. I would say we should be very very cautious. I think there is too much optimism going around.

"... the actual economic growth of India could be closer to -10 per cent in 2020-21," he said.

Sen said quarterly GDP numbers are still derived from some corporate accounts and corporates have not fared as badly as the non-corporate sector.

"We know that MSMEs have been hit much harder than the corporations. So, the headline number coming out in the national accounts is an overly optimistic picture of the economy," the eminent economist said.

Sen also stressed on bringing back confidence of the investors.

Investors are new people who put their money into creating new production capacity, that is completely missing, he said, adding that until that comes back, the economy cannot grow.

"Because at the moment, as things stand our production capacity will not be very higher than what it was in 2019-20. And in fact, it will be less than that because some of the capacity may have closed down," the former chief statistician noted.

Sen, who is also heading the Standing Committee on Statistics (SCES) said the committee could not finalise its report.

India's economy recovered faster than expected in the September quarter as a pick-up in manufacturing helped the GDP clock a lower contraction of 7.5 per cent and held out hopes for further improvement on better consumer demand.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had shrunk by a massive 23.9 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal as the Covid-19 lockdown pummelled economic activity.

The second straight quarter of contraction pushed India into a technical recession for the first time.

According to the RBI, the Indian economy is likely to contract by 7.5 per cent in 2020-21.

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News Network
December 21,2024

New Delhi: The Ministry of Law and Justice of Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government has made an amendment to the Conduct of Election Rules, restricting public access to certain electoral documents that were previously available.

The original Rule 93(2)(a) of the 1961 Conduct of Election Rules stated, “all other papers relating to the election shall be open to public inspection.” However, following the amendment on Friday, the rule now reads, “all other papers as specified in these rules relating to the election shall be open to public inspection.”

Activists have raised concerns, claiming that the insertion of the phrase “as specified in these rules” limits access to various official documents created during elections to Parliament and Assemblies, which are not explicitly mentioned in the rules.

RTI activist Venkatesh Nayak pointed out that there are numerous documents, though not listed in the rules, that are generated by election officials such as Presiding Officers, Sector Officers (responsible for constituency vulnerability mapping), and those in charge of EVM movement and replacement of defective machines on polling day. These include reports from general, police, and expenditure observers, as well as Returning Officers and Chief Electoral Officers.

Nayak emphasized, “Access to these documents is crucial for ensuring the fairness of elections and the accuracy of results.”

The amendment comes shortly after the Punjab and Haryana High Court directed the Election Commission to provide video footage and documents related to votes cast at a polling station in the recent Haryana Assembly elections to lawyer Mehmood Pracha. Pracha has criticized the amendment, asserting that it will withhold essential information. “This is a reconfirmation of the Election Commission’s bias,” he said.

Nayak further stated, “This amendment undermines the principle of full transparency established by the Supreme Court in the Electoral Bonds case. The notification of this amendment on the very day Parliament was adjourned sine die has deprived MPs of the opportunity to challenge its necessity in real time.”

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News Network
December 26,2024

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The UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) says the northern part of the Gaza Strip has been going through “the hell of the hell" amid Israel's bombing campaign on civilian facilities and blockade of aid for almost three months.

In an interview with Irish state media RTE on Wednesday, UNRWA Communications Director Juliette Touma said northern Gaza has witnessed “heavy, heavy bombardment," as well as loss of life among civilians and attacks on hospitals and shelters.

She was also asked about the situation in the Kamal Adwan hospital, which is still barely functioning in northern Gaza despite an Israeli order to shut down and evacuate.

Touma said the evacuation orders of medical centers and raids on them "have become commonplace in Gaza" since last October, when Israel unleashed its genocidal war on the Palestinian territory.

“We shouldn’t become numb, though, to the fact that this happens all the time. Because, at the end of the day, this is a violation of international law," she added.

"This is crossing a very thick red line and way too many times the rules of war have been broken in Gaza, and those responsible must be held accountable."

Over the past few months, Israel has used tanks, snipers and quadcopters to attack the Kamal Adwan hospital, where over 400 civilians have sought medical care and shelter.

On Wednesday, Physicians for Human Rights - Israel (PHRI), an Israeli NGO that advocates for medical rights, filed an urgent petition with the regime's top court to end the ongoing attacks on the Kamal Adwan hospital.

The petition calls for the establishment of a humanitarian corridor to deliver medical supplies, fuel, and for the safe evacuation of patients and staff.

“The relentless attacks on Kamal Adwan hospital have caused catastrophic harm to medical infrastructure, claimed the lives of patients and staff, and denied access to essential healthcare services," it said.

"Under international law, Israel is obligated to protect the safety and security of patients, medical personnel, and healthcare facilities—even in times of conflict.”

Israel launched its brutal Gaza onslaught on October 7, 2023, after the Palestinian Hamas resistance group carried out a historic operation against the usurping entity in retaliation for its intensified atrocities against the Palestinian people.

So far, the occupying regime has killed at least 45,361 Palestinians, mostly women and children, and injured 107,803 others, in Gaza. 

Since early October, Israel has intensified its attacks in the northern Gaza Strip, cut the area off from the rest of the territory, and blocked nearly all food aid from entering the region.

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News Network
December 23,2024

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Dhaka: Bangladesh's interim government said on Monday that it has sent a diplomatic note to India to send back deposed prime minister Sheikh Hasina to Dhaka.

Hasina, 77, has been living in exile in India since Aug 5 when she fled the country amid the student-led protests that toppled her 16-year regime. Dhaka-based International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) has issued arrest warrants for Hasina and several former Cabinet ministers, advisers, and military and civil officials for "crimes against humanity and genocide".

“We have sent a note verbale (diplomatic message) to the Indian government saying that Bangladesh wants her back here for the judicial process,” Foreign Affairs Adviser or de facto foreign minister Touhid Hossain told reporters at his office.

Earlier in the morning, Home Advisor Jahangir Alam said his office has sent a letter to the foreign ministry to facilitate the ousted premier's extradition from India.

“We have sent a letter to the foreign ministry regarding her extradition. The process is currently underway,” he told reporters in response to a query.

Alam said an extradition treaty between Dhaka and New Delhi already exists and Hasina could be brought back to Bangladesh under the treaty.

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