With temperatures already climbing unusually early in February, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned that Karnataka is likely to experience a hotter-than-normal summer from March to May 2026, raising concerns over prolonged heat and heatwave conditions across the state.

According to the IMD’s long-range forecast, both maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to remain above normal in most parts of India during the March–May period. However, a few pockets of south peninsular India, including Kerala and Tamil Nadu, may see relatively less intense deviations from normal temperatures.

For Karnataka, the outlook is particularly concerning. The IMD has indicated a high probability of above-normal maximum temperatures across the entire state, with coastal Karnataka showing the highest likelihood, estimated between 65% and 75%. Minimum temperatures are also expected to remain above average, especially in coastal and north interior regions, adding to the overall heat stress.

The department has flagged a red alert for several parts of north interior Karnataka for the March to May period, forecasting severe heatwave spells. These heatwave events are expected to last between three and six days at a time, interspersed with short breaks in weather conditions.

Meteorologists noted that the early rise in temperatures during February is a precursor to the intense summer ahead, and the upward trend is likely to continue through the end of the month before peaking in the pre-monsoon season. Residents have been advised to remain cautious during hot and dry spells and to take necessary precautions against heat-related illnesses.

The forecast was reviewed during a national-level meeting on heatwave preparedness and seasonal outlook held by the IMD, where experts also examined the role of large-scale climate patterns. Discussions focused on the current El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase and its interaction with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), both of which significantly influence temperature and weather patterns over the Indian region.

Climatological data on heatwave trends and durations since 1993 were also analysed during the review, reinforcing concerns that the upcoming summer could bring more frequent and intense heat episodes across Karnataka.