Exit polls on Wednesday projected a strong victory for the BJP in Assam and a closely contested battle in West Bengal, with some surveys giving the saffron party an edge over the TMC. In the south, pollsters indicated a return of the DMK in Tamil Nadu and a comeback for the UDF in Kerala after nearly a decade, while the AINRC-led NDA is tipped to retain Puducherry.

In Assam, most surveys predicted a comfortable majority for the BJP-led NDA. Axis My India forecast 88–100 seats for the alliance against 24–36 for the Congress-led bloc. People’s Pulse projected 68–72 for the NDA and 22–26 for the opposition, while Matrize estimated 85–95 seats for the NDA and 25–32 for Congress and allies. The 126-member Assembly has a majority mark of 64.

Kerala exit polls largely favoured the Congress-led UDF. Axis My India predicted 78–90 seats for the UDF, 49–62 for the LDF and 0–3 for the NDA. People’s Pulse gave the UDF 75–85 seats and the LDF 55–65, while Matrize projected a narrower contest with 70–75 for the UDF and 60–65 for the LDF. The Assembly has 140 seats, with 71 needed for a majority.

In West Bengal, projections were mixed. People’s Pulse predicted the TMC would remain ahead with 177–187 seats against the BJP’s 95–110. However, Matrize and P-Marq suggested an advantage for the BJP, projecting it could cross the majority mark of 148 in the 294-member House, with estimates ranging from 146–175 seats.

Tamil Nadu exit polls pointed to a return of the DMK-led alliance. People’s Pulse projected 125–145 seats for the DMK alliance, while Matrize estimated 122–132 seats. The AIADMK-BJP alliance was forecast to trail, with smaller gains predicted for TVK. The state Assembly has 234 seats, with 118 required for a majority.

In Puducherry, Axis My India projected 16–20 seats for the NDA and 6–8 for the DMK-Congress alliance, indicating a likely continuation of the current government in the 30-member Assembly.

Exit polls, however, have a mixed track record and have often missed the mark in the past.

Counting of votes for all five Assemblies—Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Puducherry—will take place on May 4. Polling was conducted in a single phase in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, while West Bengal voted in two phases on April 23 and 29.

Voter turnout was notably high across states. Assam and Puducherry recorded 85.38% and 89.83% turnout respectively on April 9. Tamil Nadu saw 84.69% turnout on April 23, its highest since Independence. West Bengal registered 91.78% turnout in its first phase.

The BJP is seeking to retain power in Assam and Puducherry, while the Congress hopes to make gains in both. In Kerala, the UDF is attempting to unseat the ruling LDF, while in Tamil Nadu, the DMK aims to hold off the AIADMK-BJP challenge and the newly formed Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam led by actor-turned-politician Vijay. In West Bengal, the TMC under Mamata Banerjee is striving to retain power amid a strong BJP challenge.