Karnataka is experiencing an unusually warm November, with maximum daytime temperatures touching 40°C in several parts of the state during the first 11 days of the month. The trend could make this one of the warmest Novembers in the state in the past six years.

Almost all districts have recorded maximum temperatures 1.5°C to 2°C higher on average than during the corresponding period last year.

According to the Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre (KSNDMC), daytime temperatures across the state ranged between 34°C and 40°C from November 1 to 11. By comparison, the average November maximum temperature over the past six years generally ranged between 30°C and 38°C.

The coastal districts of Dakshina Kannada, Udupi and Uttara Kannada, along with Kalaburagi, Raichur and Shivamogga, have recorded maximum temperatures ranging from 34°C to 39.8°C over the past 10 days. In Bengaluru, the maximum temperature has been around 31°C, while the minimum has hovered around 18°C.

While daytime temperatures have been significantly above normal, minimum temperatures in most parts of the state have remained between 10°C and 18°C. Clear skies, dry northerly to north-easterly winds and the possible influence of El Niño are among the factors contributing to the unusual temperature pattern.

C S Patil, senior scientist at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Bengaluru, said clear skies and dry winds were contributing to the drop in minimum temperatures, particularly across north interior Karnataka.

“The drop in minimum temperature is not abnormal. Parts of North Karnataka have been recording minimum temperatures between 8°C and 12°C in the last many years. However, what is unusual this year is the maximum temperatures. This could be one of the warmest Novembers in the last many years,” he said.

November marks the transition from the monsoon season to winter, as post-monsoon clouds give way to cold north-easterly winds from the Himalayas. December and January are generally the coldest months, with winter beginning to retreat from mid-February.

However, IMD scientists in Bengaluru expect daytime temperatures to remain on the higher side due to El Niño conditions, even as temperatures from dusk to dawn could remain relatively low.

In its monthly outlook issued on October 31, the IMD stated that very strong El Niño conditions were prevailing over the equatorial Pacific and were likely to persist through November and December. It also forecast above-normal maximum temperatures across most parts of the country during November.

The unusual temperature pattern could also affect rabi cultivation, according to Rajavel Manickam, senior IMD scientist (Agromet).

“Currently, the plains of the North Interior Karnataka region are witnessing fog and mist during pre-dawn hours, followed by high temperatures during the day. While the moisture content could benefit crops such as Bengal gram and other pulses, extreme high temperatures and heatwaves during the summer season can disrupt the natural cool-weather cycle required by major crops such as wheat and pulses,” he said.

Manickam also predicted that parts of north interior Karnataka could experience hailstorms in February and March, potentially affecting the harvesting of several crops.

“Daytime temperatures throughout the winter months could remain on the higher side due to the El Niño impact,” he added.